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- Feb 16, 2016
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Analysis: What the CCP Fears if U.S. Can Negotiate an End to Russian-Ukraine War
What CCP Fears If US Can Negotiate an End to Russia–Ukraine War: Analysts
China, facing political infighting and an ailing economy, risks emerging as America’s top threat if the Ukraine war ends. Can it withstand the pressure?
www.theepochtimes.com
If President Donald Trump can negotiate a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, communist China could become the next target of the United States, analysts say.
During a phone call on Feb. 24, Chinese leader Xi Jinping reaffirmed the “no limit” partnership he declared three years ago with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
In a show of unity, Xi told Putin that their nations are “good neighbors” and “true friends who have been through thick and thin together,” according to Beijing’s readout.
Analysts said the warm sentiments expressed as the war in Ukraine marks its third year reflect the Chinese regime’s serious concerns.
“Xi Jinping’s greatest fear is that Putin might lean towards Trump” or even facilitate U.S. efforts to contain his regime, Cai Shenkun, an independent Chinese current affairs commentator, told The Epoch Times.
According to Cai, the alliance between the two autocracies is not as solid as it appears. He said that the war in Ukraine has acted as a catalyst, forging a closer bond between Beijing and Moscow and their economies. Once a cease-fire is reached, however, some longstanding friction points in their partnership, such as territorial disputes along their shared border, may resurface.
Additionally, Beijing’s support of Moscow’s war effort has strained its ties with Washington and Brussels, he said.
U.S. officials have repeatedly criticized China for helping Russia to rebuild its defense-industrial complex through the export of goods that can be used for both civilian and military purposes, thus providing Moscow an economic lifeline amid Western sanctions.
Meanwhile, European leaders, including the NATO secretary-general, are reconsidering their reliance on authoritarian regimes, especially in light of the largest armed conflict in Europe since World War II.
“In the past, we made the mistake of becoming dependent on Russian oil and gas. We must not repeat that mistake with China: Depending on its money, its raw materials, and its technologies,” NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said at an event in April 2024. “Dependencies make us vulnerable.”
Cai said that as global distrust toward communist China rises, the regime could find itself sidelined once the conflict in Ukraine ends and Putin no longer needs Xi’s support.
“Neither Ukraine nor Russia will be grateful to China [for the war]. Europe certainly won’t either,” Cai said. “Xi was left with little choice but to place his bets on Putin.”
A Shift in US Focus Toward China
Chen Shih-min, an expert on Western Europe security and the Chinese military at the National Taiwan University in Taipei, echoed those viewpoints. Beijing and Moscow are bonded by common interests, he said, which means they'll diverge once these interests conflict.
Chen said that once the Ukraine war is settled, the Trump administration’s intention may be to shift its focus to driving Beijing and Moscow apart and confronting the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).
“Trump will come down hard on the CCP,” Chen told The Epoch Times.
U.S. defense leaders have indicated a strategic pivot toward countering threats from communist China.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has described communist China as a peer competitor with the “capability and intent to threaten our homeland and core national interests in the Indo-Pacific.”
“The U.S. is prioritizing deterring war with China in the Pacific, recognizing the reality of scarcity, and making the resourcing tradeoffs to ensure deterrence does not fail,” Hegseth said in his opening remarks at the Ukraine Defense Contact Group in Brussels on Feb. 12.
This shift in focus extends beyond the U.S. military.
~Snip~
The Endgame of Communist Rule in China?
Activist Qin Jin said that despite the absence of any “clear sign” pointing to an immediate fall of the CCP, he won’t be surprised if it all unravels overnight, much like the collapse of the Soviet Union, which few in the West foresaw until it actually happened in 1991.
Qin highlighted the secrecy that cloaks authoritarian regimes, likening the CCP’s internal workings to the Iron Curtain of the Soviet era, dubbing it the “Bamboo Curtain” in China.
“What lies behind the Bamboo Curtain is almost impossible to know until the authorities choose to reveal it,” Qin, the chairman of the pro-democracy Federation for a Democratic China in Australia, told The Epoch Times.
As an example of the regime’s opacity, Qin cited Beijing’s tight control of information related to COVID-19, which first emerged in the central Chinese city of Wuhan five years ago.
To this day, Beijing has resisted any international investigation into the origin of the pandemic, leaving the world in the dark about how the pandemic erupted in China.
It only becomes more secretive when it comes to the country’s power center.
Qin pointed to the mystery surrounding the death of former No. 2 official Li Keqiang in October 2023, seven months after he stepped down as premier.
Li’s death at the age of 68 raised eyebrows among China watchers, who highlighted the Party elites’ record of longevity. Li’s two immediate predecessors, Wen Jiabao, 83, and Zhu Rongji, 96, are still living.
Some commentators speculated that Li’s passing coincides with political infighting within the Party’s top brass. A string of senior officials and military commanders, including the former foreign minister Qin Gang and defense minister Li Shangfu, had been abruptly removed from office after unexplained disappearances.
“The details of Li Keqiang’s death will surely be disclosed in the future,” Qin said. “When? After the collapse of the communist regime.”
Discontent among law enforcement personnel is surging within the major cities. Recently, Qin spoke with a police chief from a provincial capital who had fled overseas—an indication of unrest even among the high ranks of the public security bureaus, which are usually under tight CCP control.
Commentary:
“Dependencies make us vulnerable.” ~~~~ But Germany's leaders laughed at Trump when he warned them not to become dependent upon Russian natural gas circa 2018. Then they froze their asses off in the winter of 2022-23. Now they are agreeing with him (but of course will give him no credit for being right).
Xi Jinping would like the war to continue to weaken both rivals. His first move may be on the Manchuria Peninsula, not Taiwan. Much more to gain with less effort. Xi says he is friends with Putin. Putin knows better. But for the present time they are allies against the West and especially the U.S.
The fact is that the both the Russian and Chinese populations are declining, but it’s more of a problem for Russia now. while the suicide rate in China is much lower.
