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to see who win the 2012 presidential election.
Romney/Ryan
to see who win the 2012 presidential election.
Wanna bet?
If that is your best measure I suggest you take a sec and read FiveThirtyEight. I suggest you seriously read the info there, so that you are not upset on 11/7/12. This is not a "prediction", but a confidence interval that shows an undeniabley high likely hood (+75%) that Obama will be president again.
Nate Silver is a numbers guy, he basically breaks it down as to why Romney has never had over a 30% chance of being president. Intrade marks the same. He is quite accurate when it comes to statistical analysis, back on '03 he created the PECOTA algorithm for baseball (If you know about recruiting). Cons hate him now, but loved him when he predicted a large win for the republicans in 2010 he was off by about 6 seats for the house and 1 seat in the Senate.
It's not about the popular vote, it's about the electoral college and Obama is leading where it counts... In states with the MOST electoral votes.
Wanna bet?
If that is your best measure I suggest you take a sec and read FiveThirtyEight. I suggest you seriously read the info there, so that you are not upset on 11/7/12. This is not a "prediction", but a confidence interval that shows an undeniabley high likely hood (+75%) that Obama will be president again.
Nate Silver is a numbers guy, he basically breaks it down as to why Romney has never had over a 30% chance of being president. Intrade marks the same. He is quite accurate when it comes to statistical analysis, back on '03 he created the PECOTA algorithm for baseball (If you know about recruiting). Cons hate him now, but loved him when he predicted a large win for the republicans in 2010 he was off by about 6 seats for the house and 1 seat in the Senate.
It's not about the popular vote, it's about the electoral college and Obama is leading where it counts... In states with the MOST electoral votes.
You can't discount the popular vote and the fact that on average Romney has a slight lead there. The average of the national polls was more accurate than the average of the state polls in 2008. The popular vote winner usually wins the electoral college. After 220 years, there have only been 4 times where the popular vote winner lost.
The race is much closer than Nates created probabilities suggest. Even if Obama were to win, it would be the weakest victory EVER by an incumbent President in United States history. It would also be shocking after Obama had led so consistently by a strong margin in the average of national polls for most of 2012, to only win by a whisker.
If obama wins by a whisker it's still a win. He THINKS he will be able to twist republican arms to get what he wants but he is quite wrong about that. obama has personalized his administration. He thinks that republicans don't want to pass his proposals because they don't like him. It's that they don't like the policies he is proposing. He just can't imagine being wrong, ever.
Despite the fact that I stand to make a lot of money if obama wins, I would much rather that he lost and America won.
Wanna bet?
If that is your best measure I suggest you take a sec and read FiveThirtyEight. I suggest you seriously read the info there, so that you are not upset on 11/7/12. This is not a "prediction", but a confidence interval that shows an undeniabley high likely hood (+75%) that Obama will be president again.
Nate Silver is a numbers guy, he basically breaks it down as to why Romney has never had over a 30% chance of being president. Intrade marks the same. He is quite accurate when it comes to statistical analysis, back on '03 he created the PECOTA algorithm for baseball (If you know about recruiting). Cons hate him now, but loved him when he predicted a large win for the republicans in 2010 he was off by about 6 seats for the house and 1 seat in the Senate.
It's not about the popular vote, it's about the electoral college and Obama is leading where it counts... In states with the MOST electoral votes.
You can't discount the popular vote and the fact that on average Romney has a slight lead there. The average of the national polls was more accurate than the average of the state polls in 2008. The popular vote winner usually wins the electoral college. After 220 years, there have only been 4 times where the popular vote winner lost.
The race is much closer than Nates created probabilities suggest. Even if Obama were to win, it would be the weakest victory EVER by an incumbent President in United States history. It would also be shocking after Obama had led so consistently by a strong margin in the average of national polls for most of 2012, to only win by a whisker.
No, Romney does not have a "slight lead there." I suggest you read the article. You also say "The race is much closer than Nates created probabilities suggest." First of all, Nate "creates" nothing. He uses statistical analysis to interpret responses a wide selection of polls, accounting for various techniques, weights, and variances. Secondly--what in the world do you base YOUR expert analysis on? Sean Hannity's Republican Butt Trek Radio show? LOL
Secondly--what in the world do you base YOUR expert analysis on? Sean Hannity's Republican Butt Trek Radio show? LOL
I will keep posting current status of these 10 poll aggregaters, to give people an idea of what the people who look and summarize _all_ the polls are saying. Right now, they're all saying Obama is winning. It is a rational position to say you think Romney can gain ground and pull out a victory. It is not rational to declare that Romney is currently way ahead and headed for a blowout win.
10/31/2012
RCP O281-R257
RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Electoral Map No Toss Ups
Pollster.com O253-R206
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Five-thirty-eight.com (Nate Silver) O299-R239
Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com
Princeton Election consortium O318-R220
http://election.princeton.edu/
Election Analytics O291.6-R246.4
Presidential Election 2012 | University of Illinois
InTrade O294-R244
2012 Electoral Map - The Intrade Forecast 10/31/2012
BetFair O305-235
US Presidential Election: Seven days to go, where do we stand? | Betting @ Betfair
Electoral Vote O280-R206
ElectoralVote
270 to Win O275-R263
America's Electoral Map: A 2012 Election Forecast
Votamatic O332-R206
VOTAMATIC | Forecasts and Polling Analysis for the 2012 Presidential Election