Here is the equation I used:
T= Total US Box Office
G= Gross per Theatre G=V*10
N= Number of Theatres. The variables N1, N2, N3, N4 etc. represent N for the number of theatres screening the movie for weeks 1,2,3,4, etc. G*N= Weekend Gross or V*10*N= Weekend Gross
V= Viewers per theatre (V) or (G/10) **assumes $10 ticket price** The variables V1, V2, V3, V4, etc. represent the number of viewers for weeks 1, 2, 3, 4, etc.
P= Percentage number of viewers (V) as compared to the previous week. Determined by taking the number of V from the current week, and dividing that by the V of the previous week. Example:
If you have a per theatre gross of $10,000 with a total viewing audience at the theatre of 1000 and a $10 ticket price. The next week you make $20,000 per theatre, have a viewing audience of 2000 and a ticket price of $10.
1,000*$10=$10,000
2,000*$10=$20,000
To find the % difference of the viewing audience between the two weeks, take the second, later number of viewers, and divide it by the number of viewers during the first week. Then take that number and multiply by 100 for the percent increase or decrease. In this case, the second week's audience was 200% the size of the first week's.
P= (VX/VX-1)*100 **Where X does not equal 1**
Take the V from V(X-1), multiply that by P, the V for Week X divided by the V of Week (X-1), divided by 100 (P/100) to determine VX, the number of viewers for the selected week.
V(X-1)*(P/100)= VX or V(X-1) *[VX/V(X-1)]= VX
Example:
V1*(P/100)= V2 or V(Week 1)*[V(Week 2)/ V(Week 1)] = V(Week 2)
The number after P (P1, P2, P3, P4, etc.) stands for the percent difference between The first and second weeks, second and third weeks, third and fourth weeks, forth and fifth weeks, etc.
Now, the equation:
T=V1*10*N1 + V1*(P1/100)*10*N2 + V2*(P2/100)*10*N3 + V3*(P3/100)*10*N4 + V4*(P4/100)*N5*10...
Of course, if we are to derive each V from the previous V, we need to know the original V. Since we already know the G of the first weekend (G1), and G= V*10, we can divide the G1 by 10 to determine the V1
G1/10=V1
or we can take the total gross for the opening weekend (V1*10*N1) set equal to the actual gross of $367,311, plug in the know value of N1, and solve for V1.
V1= $367,311/($10*4)
Each group of VX*(PX/100)*10*NX= The gross of the movie for that week (G*N). Each group is added together to determine total box office (T). Since we already know the G*N for the first two weeks, we can set the first two VX*(P/100)*10*NX equal to that weekend gross.
So we know that:
V1*10*N1= $367,311
V1*(P/100)*10*N2= $1,331,508
Now it's just about inserting likely numbers into the variables (N and P).
Insert whatever percentage you think the movies audience size will increase or decrease into P.
Insert whatever the number of theatres the movie will be screened at that week. We know that for the first week it was shown at 4 theatres and at 77 for the next week. So N1 is 4, N2 is 77, and N3 is 122. N4 is when the movie goes nationwide, so it will probably be shown at between 1,500 and 3,000 theatres for those N.
Wow, they aren't doing a full national release. That changes everything. See that last bit there in my post. Revise that to the actual N value of 404 or 514. Basically it's taking my original N value and dividing by 4, 5, or 6 to fit the actual N, and not the posited N we were all working with. If the movie goes above $10 million, then my equation is correct except for the N value, which we overstated. So my equation worked. The N value was overstated, but once we account for that error, the movie falls exactly within my predicted range. It's not unquestioning victory, but the equation speaks for itself. The movie is going to make money, I'm right.