If China, the United States, and other major nations were to enter into a partnership to create an advanced civilization, medical technology would become able to cure all medical problems and extend lifetimes indefinitely, except for accidents.
That would produce a population problem that would need to be resolved by moving large numbers of people into orbital space communities. This could be done but would require international cooperation.
Since hull area rises more slowly than internal volume, it would be most efficient to build large space community vehicles. Thus, such orbital vehicles could have an internal volume of tens of cubic miles, which would provide plenty of room for large parks, golf courses, small yards, etc. Ceiling could have moving images of sky and clouds. It would produce less strain on the vehicle to maintain gravity low, but medical science could develop drugs to keep muscles strong, and so forth. Dance in low gravity would be quite exciting, and so forth.
The asteroids have millions of cubic miles of iron ore, plus large amounts of other ores, so there are adequate natural resources to build all the orbital space communities we would want.
To handle the cost, it would be necessary to grow the world economy. Since a higher standard of living reduces birth rates, that itself would help somewhat with the population problem.
China already has experience with producing economic growth by about ten percent per year, and research could increase our skill in that area. Let us then plan for an increase in the world economy (using alternative energy) of ten percent per year. At that rate, the world economy would double in just under eight years. The Gross World Product is now about 60 trillion dollars per year. So ten percent growth would give us a world economy (in constant dollars) of 120 trillion in 2022, 240 trillion in 2030, 480 trillion in 2038, 960 trillion in 2046, 1920 trillion in 2052, and 3840 trillion dollars in 2060.
Let us assume that we won't develop anything like anti-gravity, which would make lifting mass from earth to orbit cheap. At the moment, the new space corporations are estimating a ticket to and from earth orbit would be 100 million dollars. Technology can usually bring down costs at least some, so let us estimate that it would require 10 million dollars to lift each person to orbit. Once people were to reach orbit, further travel in space would be quite inexpensive.
If we needed to move 50 million people into space each year, that would therefore cost about 500 trillion dollars per year. But that would only be about an eighth of the above 3840 trillion dollars per year world economy.
Once basic equipment were lifted into space, a self-sustaining mining and manufacturing economy could be established which could function at costs about the same as costs on earth. Therefore, it would be much less expensive to build space community vehicles for 50 million new people per year than it would be to lift them into orbit.
Therefore, this can be done.
Would most people think that this would be better than just continuing to have wars until humanity is an exhausted and reduced remnant?
Would the wealthy think this would be better than just continuing to have wars?
If people did decide that becoming an advanced civilization and moving into space would be better, then a treaty arrangement wouldn't be all that hard to bring about.
China, the United States, etc. could agree to cease wars and instead, move in partnership to create an advanced civilization.
Jim
That would produce a population problem that would need to be resolved by moving large numbers of people into orbital space communities. This could be done but would require international cooperation.
Since hull area rises more slowly than internal volume, it would be most efficient to build large space community vehicles. Thus, such orbital vehicles could have an internal volume of tens of cubic miles, which would provide plenty of room for large parks, golf courses, small yards, etc. Ceiling could have moving images of sky and clouds. It would produce less strain on the vehicle to maintain gravity low, but medical science could develop drugs to keep muscles strong, and so forth. Dance in low gravity would be quite exciting, and so forth.
The asteroids have millions of cubic miles of iron ore, plus large amounts of other ores, so there are adequate natural resources to build all the orbital space communities we would want.
To handle the cost, it would be necessary to grow the world economy. Since a higher standard of living reduces birth rates, that itself would help somewhat with the population problem.
China already has experience with producing economic growth by about ten percent per year, and research could increase our skill in that area. Let us then plan for an increase in the world economy (using alternative energy) of ten percent per year. At that rate, the world economy would double in just under eight years. The Gross World Product is now about 60 trillion dollars per year. So ten percent growth would give us a world economy (in constant dollars) of 120 trillion in 2022, 240 trillion in 2030, 480 trillion in 2038, 960 trillion in 2046, 1920 trillion in 2052, and 3840 trillion dollars in 2060.
Let us assume that we won't develop anything like anti-gravity, which would make lifting mass from earth to orbit cheap. At the moment, the new space corporations are estimating a ticket to and from earth orbit would be 100 million dollars. Technology can usually bring down costs at least some, so let us estimate that it would require 10 million dollars to lift each person to orbit. Once people were to reach orbit, further travel in space would be quite inexpensive.
If we needed to move 50 million people into space each year, that would therefore cost about 500 trillion dollars per year. But that would only be about an eighth of the above 3840 trillion dollars per year world economy.
Once basic equipment were lifted into space, a self-sustaining mining and manufacturing economy could be established which could function at costs about the same as costs on earth. Therefore, it would be much less expensive to build space community vehicles for 50 million new people per year than it would be to lift them into orbit.
Therefore, this can be done.
Would most people think that this would be better than just continuing to have wars until humanity is an exhausted and reduced remnant?
Would the wealthy think this would be better than just continuing to have wars?
If people did decide that becoming an advanced civilization and moving into space would be better, then a treaty arrangement wouldn't be all that hard to bring about.
China, the United States, etc. could agree to cease wars and instead, move in partnership to create an advanced civilization.
Jim