ABC/WAPO poll, 13.09.2015: Clinton (D) 46 / Trump (R) 43 among RVs

[Statistikhengst]

http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1171a12016ClintonTrump.pdf

ABC/WAPO sees a dogfight at this time, with Clinton somewhat in the lead.
Among the general population, it's Clinton 51 / Trump 39, Clinton +12.
The truth is usually somewhere in the middle. This is neither +3 nor is it +12. It's probably +5.5 to +6.

But it's the stuff in the internals that is a little hair-raising:

-and-

Very polarized. Clinton leads by 21 points among women, Trump leads by 15 points among men.


-and-

Huge lead for Clinton among non-white voters. Trump leads by +16 among whites. Again, much more polarized than in 2012, but Trump is still not near Romney's 59% of the White Vote from Election night, 2012.


No matter how you slice it, it's still: advantage Clinton.

FYI.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

The Free Shit Party leads with people who get free shit and lags badly with the people paying for it all

Shocking

 

[ScienceRocks]

Good information stat!

 

[Statistikhengst]

So, here are more of the internals for the ABC / WAPO poll, Hillary vs. Trump.

First, breakdown by race, General population:

And breakdown by race, RV only:

Here, we see a lot of consistency within the poll itself. This is important.

Among Black voters, Hillary is at 91 with the General Population and with 90 among RV, EXACTLY in line with most of electoral history since at least 1968. Toro - now you know why I laugh when I see Trump at 25% of the black vote in a SUSA poll.

Among Latinos, it 69/21 among the General Population (+48) and it's 59/27 (+22) among RV's, which means that not all Latinos, at least at this time, intend to vote. But we have seen this patten before, in both 2008 and 2012, where the Latino vote was GROSSLY undercalculated and then, on election night, Obama won the Latino vote with GenPop dimensions. This is critical.



Breakdown by partisan affiliation, General population:

And breakdown by party affiliation, RV only:

Here, the dynamics are also very consistent:

Among Democrats, Hillary gets 83% (GenPop) or 82% (RV), while Trump gets 13% (GenPop) or 15% (RV).
It's a reverse image among Republican voters, but less support for Trump, which is why he is losing in a GE matchup among RVs: Trump 77% among Republican votes, Hillary 14%, both - both times. Lots more undecideds among Republican voters than among Democratic voters and guaranteed, after Labor Day, 2016, we will be seeing the traditional 91 / 9 for each party, as has been for many, many, many cycles now. 17% undecided Independents is a LOT for two candidates with such high name recognition.

If the GOP thinks it can get to 47% of the Latino vote with Trump, it needs to think again.

You can find all that data through this link:

Clinton vs. Trump general election - The Washington Post