A bunch of us at Harvard think the IRS handed Obama his re-election

[CayLargo]

Yes, IRS Harassment Blunted The Tea Party Ground Game

It is a well-known fact that the Tea Party movement dealt the president his famous "shellacking" in the 2010 mid-term election. Less well-known is the actual number of votes this new movement delivered-and the continuing effects these votes could have had in 2012 had the movement not been de-mobilized by the IRS.

In a new research paper, Andreas Madestam (from Stockholm University), Daniel Shoag and David Yanagizawa-Drott (both from the Harvard Kennedy School), and I set out to find out how much impact the Tea Party had on voter turnout in the 2010 election. We compared areas with high levels of Tea Party activity to otherwise similar areas with low levels of Tea Party activity, using data from the Census Bureau, the FEC, news reports, and a variety of other sources. We found that the effect was huge: the movement brought the Republican Party some 3-6 million additional votes in House races. That is an astonishing boost, given that all Republican House candidates combined received fewer than 45 million votes. It demonstrates conclusively how important the party's newly energized base was to its landslide victory in those elections, and how worried Democratic strategists must have been about the conservative movement's momentum.

The Tea Party movement's huge success was not the result of a few days of work by an elected official or two, but involved activists all over the country who spent the year and a half leading up to the midterm elections volunteering, organizing, donating, and rallying. Much of these grassroots activities were centered around 501(c)4s, which according to our research were an important component of the Tea Party movement and its rise.

The bottom line is that the Tea Party movement, when properly activated, can generate a huge number of votes-more votes in 2010, in fact, than the vote advantage Obama held over Romney in 2012. The data show that had the Tea Party groups continued to grow at the pace seen in 2009 and 2010, and had their effect on the 2012 vote been similar to that seen in 2010, they would have brought the Republican Party as many as 5 - 8.5 million votes compared to Obama's victory margin of 5 million.

President Obama's margin of victory in some of the key swing states was fairly small: a mere 75,000 votes separated the two contenders in Florida, for example. That is less than 25% of our estimate of what the Tea Party's impact in Florida was in 2010. Looking forward to 2012 in 2010 undermining the Tea Party's efforts there must have seemed quite appealing indeed.

Unfortunately for Republicans, the IRS slowed Tea Party growth before the 2012 election. In March 2010, the IRS decided to single Tea Party groups out for special treatment when applying for tax-exempt status by flagging organizations with names containing "Tea Party," "patriot," or "9/12." For the next two years, the IRS approved the applications of only four such groups, delaying all others while subjecting the applicants to highly intrusive, intimidating requests for information regarding their activities, membership, contacts, Facebook posts, and private thoughts.

As a consequence, the founders, members, and donors of new Tea Party groups found themselves incapable of exercising their constitutional rights, and the Tea Party's impact was muted in the 2012 election cycle. As Toby Marie Walker, who runs the Waco Tea Party, which filed for tax-exempt status in 2010 but didn't receive approval until two months ago, recounted recently: "Our donors dried up. It was intimidating and time-consuming." The Richmond Tea Party went through a similar ordeal, and was only granted tax-exempt status in December, right after the election--three years after its initial request. Its chairman explained the consequences: the episode cost the Richmond Tea Party $17,000 in legal fees and swallowed time the all-volunteer network would have devoted to voter turnout, outreach in black and Latino neighborhoods and other events to highlight the constitution and "the concept of liberty."

So you are saying the normally illegal activities of the TP was stiffled by the IRS? Pretty smart move on donors parts to stay away from illegal activities that only represent 30% of a community, and not the whole community.

 

[CayLargo]

332-206; not joking.

The IRS. Obama's campaign strategy. Not joking. Audit the opposition to death. Leave no man standing.

Candy-ass is a typical socialist/marxist/communist. In their minds "the ends justifies the means". It doesn't matter that there was rampant voter fraud and Chicago-style politics which rigged the election for Obama. Hell, it doesn't even matter if people were murdered (like they were in Benghazi). As long as the results are more socialism/marxism/communism, then nothing else matters and they are happy.

LMAO! Coming from a guy that watched Bush get "Selected" over the popular vote. That is rich dude!!!!

 

[P@triot]

I'm quite happy with our President's performance.

I was wondering if you perhaps could expound on which part of Hussein's performance you are happy with:

 

[P@triot]

The IRS. Obama's campaign strategy. Not joking. Audit the opposition to death. Leave no man standing.

Candy-ass is a typical socialist/marxist/communist. In their minds "the ends justifies the means". It doesn't matter that there was rampant voter fraud and Chicago-style politics which rigged the election for Obama. Hell, it doesn't even matter if people were murdered (like they were in Benghazi). As long as the results are more socialism/marxism/communism, then nothing else matters and they are happy.

LMAO! Coming from a guy that watched Bush get "Selected" over the popular vote. That is rich dude!!!!

What does that mean? You "watched" it too. So did Obama. So did candy-ass. So did people in Japan.

You're somehow trying to indictment because I WATCHED the events unfold just like the rest of the world?

Remind me again how fucking dumb you are? Pssst... come here.... lean in real close. I have a secret for you....

I NEVER voted for Bush. I didn't vote for him the first term. And I didn't vote for him the second term. I never cast a single ballot in favor of Bush.

(Now don't you just feel like the fuck'n asshole? )

Incidentally, will there ever come a day where you guys won't respond with "blame George Bush"?!?!

 

[TemplarKormac]

The IRS. Obama's campaign strategy. Not joking. Audit the opposition to death. Leave no man standing.

Candy-ass is a typical socialist/marxist/communist. In their minds "the ends justifies the means". It doesn't matter that there was rampant voter fraud and Chicago-style politics which rigged the election for Obama. Hell, it doesn't even matter if people were murdered (like they were in Benghazi). As long as the results are more socialism/marxism/communism, then nothing else matters and they are happy.

LMAO! Coming from a guy that watched Bush get "Selected" over the popular vote. That is rich dude!!!!

You're still mad about something that happened 13 years ago?

 

[JohnL.Burke]

Yes, IRS Harassment Blunted The Tea Party Ground Game

It is a well-known fact that the Tea Party movement dealt the president his famous "shellacking" in the 2010 mid-term election. Less well-known is the actual number of votes this new movement delivered-and the continuing effects these votes could have had in 2012 had the movement not been de-mobilized by the IRS.

In a new research paper, Andreas Madestam (from Stockholm University), Daniel Shoag and David Yanagizawa-Drott (both from the Harvard Kennedy School), and I set out to find out how much impact the Tea Party had on voter turnout in the 2010 election. We compared areas with high levels of Tea Party activity to otherwise similar areas with low levels of Tea Party activity, using data from the Census Bureau, the FEC, news reports, and a variety of other sources. We found that the effect was huge: the movement brought the Republican Party some 3-6 million additional votes in House races. That is an astonishing boost, given that all Republican House candidates combined received fewer than 45 million votes. It demonstrates conclusively how important the party's newly energized base was to its landslide victory in those elections, and how worried Democratic strategists must have been about the conservative movement's momentum.

The Tea Party movement's huge success was not the result of a few days of work by an elected official or two, but involved activists all over the country who spent the year and a half leading up to the midterm elections volunteering, organizing, donating, and rallying. Much of these grassroots activities were centered around 501(c)4s, which according to our research were an important component of the Tea Party movement and its rise.

The bottom line is that the Tea Party movement, when properly activated, can generate a huge number of votes-more votes in 2010, in fact, than the vote advantage Obama held over Romney in 2012. The data show that had the Tea Party groups continued to grow at the pace seen in 2009 and 2010, and had their effect on the 2012 vote been similar to that seen in 2010, they would have brought the Republican Party as many as 5 - 8.5 million votes compared to Obama's victory margin of 5 million.

President Obama's margin of victory in some of the key swing states was fairly small: a mere 75,000 votes separated the two contenders in Florida, for example. That is less than 25% of our estimate of what the Tea Party's impact in Florida was in 2010. Looking forward to 2012 in 2010 undermining the Tea Party's efforts there must have seemed quite appealing indeed.

Unfortunately for Republicans, the IRS slowed Tea Party growth before the 2012 election. In March 2010, the IRS decided to single Tea Party groups out for special treatment when applying for tax-exempt status by flagging organizations with names containing "Tea Party," "patriot," or "9/12." For the next two years, the IRS approved the applications of only four such groups, delaying all others while subjecting the applicants to highly intrusive, intimidating requests for information regarding their activities, membership, contacts, Facebook posts, and private thoughts.

As a consequence, the founders, members, and donors of new Tea Party groups found themselves incapable of exercising their constitutional rights, and the Tea Party's impact was muted in the 2012 election cycle. As Toby Marie Walker, who runs the Waco Tea Party, which filed for tax-exempt status in 2010 but didn't receive approval until two months ago, recounted recently: "Our donors dried up. It was intimidating and time-consuming." The Richmond Tea Party went through a similar ordeal, and was only granted tax-exempt status in December, right after the election--three years after its initial request. Its chairman explained the consequences: the episode cost the Richmond Tea Party $17,000 in legal fees and swallowed time the all-volunteer network would have devoted to voter turnout, outreach in black and Latino neighborhoods and other events to highlight the constitution and "the concept of liberty."

So you are saying the normally illegal activities of the TP was stiffled by the IRS? Pretty smart move on donors parts to stay away from illegal activities that only represent 30% of a community, and not the whole community.

Please explain to us what the "normally illegal activities of the TP" are. Having the audacity to disagree with big government? Having the audacity to fill out forms so they could protest legally in a public parK? The Tea Party has NEVER been accused of doing anything illegal. Please brush up on your homework. By the way, any organization that represent 30% of a community is usually considered pretty powerful. Getting 30% of people to agree on anything is rare.

 

[candycorn]

Yeah, he could end up with even more of his moves declared unconstitutional.

The ones which are already working their way through the court are already costly enough. Let's add a few more.

Hopefully he will get to appoint 3 supreme court justices before he leaves in 2016. Maybe the Democrat who looks more and more like he'll take over for him will get to appoint a couple too. Won't have to worry about that then....

Cue Dredd Scott. But in this case, white people and conservatives.

Ahh...fear. The ultimate (and only) GOP weapon.

 

[TemplarKormac]

Hopefully he will get to appoint 3 supreme court justices before he leaves in 2016. Maybe the Democrat who looks more and more like he'll take over for him will get to appoint a couple too. Won't have to worry about that then....

Cue Dredd Scott. But in this case, white people and conservatives.

Ahh...fear. The ultimate (and only) GOP weapon.

Ahh...racism. The ultimate (and only) Liberal weapon.

 

[candycorn]

I'm quite happy with our President's performance. I wish he was more liberal and more understanding of the power of the Presidency. He could do a lot more than he has done if he didn't care so much about the Congress.

Romney was a cause to giggle. How you guys nominated him in 2012 is probably the greatest example of self-sabotage in recent history.

Jesus - talk about "self-sabotage". This is the most self-sabotaging post in USMB history. This really illustrates just how profoundly unhinged and radical candy-ass is...

First of all stupid, Obama doesn't get a choice about "caring" about the Congress. It's the LAW designed for that whole "balance of powers" thing that appears to upset you. Like all libtards, you crave the dictatorship and wish the presidency were exactly that.

Second, Obama had a super-majority in the Congress. It was his über-radical policies which you are "quite happy with" that caused the American people to come out in droves in the 2010 mid-term and give him the (and I quote Obama here) "shellacking" he received.

You really are a gross and despicable piece of sub-human garbage candy-ass. Everything you crave and advocate for exists in Cuba. I wonder why it is your sorry parasitic ass doesn't move there to experience your "utopia" first-hand?

He could do what some Presidents have done and use signing statements to basically subvert Congress, Executive orders, etc....

 

[candycorn]

Cue Dredd Scott. But in this case, white people and conservatives.

Ahh...fear. The ultimate (and only) GOP weapon.

Ahh...racism. The ultimate (and only) Liberal weapon.

You brought up Dredd Scott. Not me.

 

[JohnL.Burke]

Hopefully he will get to appoint 3 supreme court justices before he leaves in 2016. Maybe the Democrat who looks more and more like he'll take over for him will get to appoint a couple too. Won't have to worry about that then....

Cue Dredd Scott. But in this case, white people and conservatives.

Ahh...fear. The ultimate (and only) GOP weapon.

A war on women!
Racism!
Children will starve to death!
Grandmother will be pushed over a cliff!
We'll all going to die in 50 years from global warming unless we pass draconian laws.
32 ounce drinks are all going to kill us!
etc...etc....etc.....
Oh sure, it's the GOP that is using fear as a weapon... Thanks for the laugh.

 

[TemplarKormac]

Ahh...fear. The ultimate (and only) GOP weapon.

Ahh...racism. The ultimate (and only) Liberal weapon.

You brought up Dredd Scott. Not me.

You keep using it all over this board. So who are you to stop me? What, Hephaestus can't bring fire to the people anymore?

 

[P@triot]

Moreover...

The only thing the IRS delay caused was a denial of "tax free" status. What the right wing loons would have you believe is that these groups activities were tied to being able to not pay taxes for raising and spending money. They could raise as much as they want and then spend as much as they want like Wal Mart. It's hardly patriotic to go into it with the angle of "We'll only do it if we can avoid paying taxes on what we raise" Nobody kept these people from campaigning, organizing, or doing any other activity.

Besides, the status exists not for political operations right?

Wow - this is a whole new level of ignorance and absurdity by the libtards! If you haven't received your tax exempt status from the IRS you simply cannot begin your fund raising for campaigning because you'll have no idea if you'll receive your tax exempt status.

Allow me to dumb it down for you candy-ass, since you are - well - dumb. A Tea Party organization forges ahead not waiting on their tax exempt status. They raise $12 million, and use it for resources (buildings, servers & websites, flyers, and campaign contributions). All $12 million is spent ethically - none is kept, embezzled, etc. Then, 8 months after the election, Uncle Sam shows up and says, "sorry, we have denied your tax exempt status - now where is our cut of the $12 million?"

Ah... where does a person then come up with several million dollars at that point? Can you say prison time....?

Yes folks, candy-ass really is this stupid. And now you know why he gets his ass handed to him in every debate and why he then throws a hissy.

332-206

So according to you, their "patriotism" extends only to the point to where they have no skin in the game.

As usual, you make zero sense. They were desperately trying to "get skin in the game" and Obama made sure he blocked that (while he himself was attempting to raise $1 billion). Just another example of the profound hypocrisy of dumbocrats.

Again, nobody was prevented from organizing, campaigning, activism, etc...

And how do you do that without money? I've never heard of campaigning without money. In fact, it took Obama blowing his leer-jet, limousine, libtard Hollywood elite friends to get his hands on close to $1 billion for his campaignin. How does one organize without money? How do you communicate? If you have no money, how do you collect and store e-mails or phone numbers for communications (ie organizing)?

One of the great mysteries of this world is whether candy-ass really is this stupid or of this is the act of a troll. I'll be honest, my best *guess* is that he really is this stupid. As far as I can tell, his dedication to communism and his ignorant responses all appear to be genuine.

Those are the facts and they are not in dispute from any learned opposition.

Uh-oh, after getting OWNED, looks like someone is moving the goal posts! Typical of the ignorant libtard....

Please see the section in bold red above. You stated that they didn't need to wait for their tax exempt status to start "raising and spending money like Wal*Mart". When I point out how you can't raise and spend money without prior knowledge of your exact tax status/level/etc., you suddenly return with a new narrative of "but then they aren't patriots if they didn't continue on blindly"

You must enjoy being my bitch, uh? Cause you sure as hell make a point of being just that as many times a day as you can!

 

[TemplarKormac]

Moreover...

The only thing the IRS delay caused was a denial of "tax free" status. What the right wing loons would have you believe is that these groups activities were tied to being able to not pay taxes for raising and spending money. They could raise as much as they want and then spend as much as they want like Wal Mart. It's hardly patriotic to go into it with the angle of "We'll only do it if we can avoid paying taxes on what we raise" Nobody kept these people from campaigning, organizing, or doing any other activity.

Besides, the status exists not for political operations right?

Wow - this is a whole new level of ignorance and absurdity by the libtards! If you haven't received your tax exempt status from the IRS you simply cannot begin your fund raising for campaigning because you'll have no idea if you'll receive your tax exempt status.

Allow me to dumb it down for you candy-ass, since you are - well - dumb. A Tea Party organization forges ahead not waiting on their tax exempt status. They raise $12 million, and use it for resources (buildings, servers & websites, flyers, and campaign contributions). All $12 million is spent ethically - none is kept, embezzled, etc. Then, 8 months after the election, Uncle Sam shows up and says, "sorry, we have denied your tax exempt status - now where is our cut of the $12 million?"

Ah... where does a person then come up with several million dollars at that point? Can you say prison time....?

Yes folks, candy-ass really is this stupid. And now you know why he gets his ass handed to him in every debate and why he then throws a hissy.

332-206

So according to you, their "patriotism" extends only to the point to where they have no skin in the game.

Again,

Nobody was prevented from organizing, campaigning, activism, etc...

Those are the facts and they are not in dispute from any learned opposition.

This isn't freaking Sesame Street, Candyass. Stop repeating "332-206" like it means anything. This Stone Cold asskicking is brought to you by the letter "A". Which stands for Argument, and you don't have one.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

The House GOP pulled in 44 million votes in 2010. Romney got almost 61 million in 2012.

He still lost. Comfortably.

Apparently Obama used the IRS and NSA to help his reelection effort

Still comfortable?

Oh, right you work for him, I forgot

 

[P@triot]

I'm quite happy with our President's performance. I wish he was more liberal and more understanding of the power of the Presidency. He could do a lot more than he has done if he didn't care so much about the Congress.

Romney was a cause to giggle. How you guys nominated him in 2012 is probably the greatest example of self-sabotage in recent history.

Jesus - talk about "self-sabotage". This is the most self-sabotaging post in USMB history. This really illustrates just how profoundly unhinged and radical candy-ass is...

First of all stupid, Obama doesn't get a choice about "caring" about the Congress. It's the LAW designed for that whole "balance of powers" thing that appears to upset you. Like all libtards, you crave the dictatorship and wish the presidency were exactly that.

Second, Obama had a super-majority in the Congress. It was his über-radical policies which you are "quite happy with" that caused the American people to come out in droves in the 2010 mid-term and give him the (and I quote Obama here) "shellacking" he received.

You really are a gross and despicable piece of sub-human garbage candy-ass. Everything you crave and advocate for exists in Cuba. I wonder why it is your sorry parasitic ass doesn't move there to experience your "utopia" first-hand?

He could do what some Presidents have done and use signing statements to basically subvert Congress, Executive orders, etc....

OMG!!! That level of honesty pouring out of candy-ass today is unprecedented!

So you advocate "subverting Congress"? Um, you do realize that is highly illegal, don't you? The U.S. Constitution is the highest law in the land, and that is in direct violation of the Constitution.

Kudos though for actually being honest! Believe it or not, while I'm appalled at your communism, I do have more respect for you now that you're not hiding the truth about who and what you are...

As I said previously - with libtards, "the ends justifies the means". Subvert congress, be a dictator, and break the laws - just make sure our dream of communism gets implemented!

 

[CayLargo]

Candy-ass is a typical socialist/marxist/communist. In their minds "the ends justifies the means". It doesn't matter that there was rampant voter fraud and Chicago-style politics which rigged the election for Obama. Hell, it doesn't even matter if people were murdered (like they were in Benghazi). As long as the results are more socialism/marxism/communism, then nothing else matters and they are happy.

LMAO! Coming from a guy that watched Bush get "Selected" over the popular vote. That is rich dude!!!!

(Now don't you just feel like the fuck'n asshole? )

Incidentally, will there ever come a day where you guys won't respond with "blame George Bush"?!?!

Not bad for a fence sitter, so where is your proof an election was rigged? And why should Benghazi be blamed on anyone other than Stevens & his crotch buddy Hicks? Has nothing to do with Obama, except if you want to get the Black guy in the WH mentality.

I bet your mom taught you to talk like a fool, didn't she? She probably called your dad a fuck'n asshole everyday of his life.

 

[Google]

The leftists on this board have entered a new level of delusion.

I have been told several times that the IRS did absolutely nothing wrong, and the scandal was never really a scandal.

This I believe is motivated primarily by their contempt and hatred of those they disagree with politically. They truly believe that conservative organization are simply undeserving of the same protections under the law, and equal treatment given to leftist organizations when applying for tax exempt status.

Driven by hatred, they proclaim there is nothing to see.

The fact that there are four investigations, two criminal investigations by the FBI and Justice Department, still on-going and no one has been held accountable is negated by their belief that there was no illegality. Never mind the IRS admitted wrong doing and 'apologized' for it.

This is pathetic, but it sums up the modern 'progressive' movement quite well. They are out to utterly destroy those they disagree with.

 

[Greenbeard]

Apparently Obama used the IRS and NSA to help his reelection effort

Still comfortable?

Oh, right you work for him, I forgot

No doubt, NSA personnel deep undercover as waitstaff.

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M2gvY2wqI7M]Mitt Romney's "47 Percent" Comments - YouTube[/ame]

Probably also using some kind of top secret mind control device to turn Mitt Romney into a stupid asshole. Devious.

 

[P@triot]

LMAO! Coming from a guy that watched Bush get "Selected" over the popular vote. That is rich dude!!!!

(Now don't you just feel like the fuck'n asshole? )

Incidentally, will there ever come a day where you guys won't respond with "blame George Bush"?!?!

Not bad for a fence sitter, so where is your proof an election was rigged? And why should Benghazi be blamed on anyone other than Stevens & his crotch buddy Hicks? Has nothing to do with Obama, except if you want to get the Black guy in the WH mentality.

I bet your mom taught you to talk like a fool, didn't she? She probably called your dad a fuck'n asshole everyday of his life.

Ah - so first you speak from a point of pure ignorance and infer that I was somehow behind Bush "stealing" an election. When I make it clear that I never voted for Bush, you then come back with more ignorance and claim that I'm a "fence sitter". Obviously you don't learn very quickly, do you?

Why should Benghazi be blamed on Obama? I suppose you're looking for an answer other than "he's the president, he's the leader, he's in charge of the entire thing"? Ok, well that obvious FACT aside, how about the fact that all nations have come forwarded and admitted that they had endless intelligence about the coming attacks, so much so, that they in fact pulled their own people out in advance? How about the fact that Obama knowingly lied to the American people and tried to blame it on a spontaneous response to a YouTube video which had been out for months before the attacks took place?

Should I keep going? See, I'm destroying you with facts, while all you have is the desperate libtard tactic of "when losing a debate, falsely accuse your opposition of racism".