87% - 99% Certain of Trump Presidency - Prof. Helmut Norpoth

[JakeStarkey]

People hate Trump more than Clinton, much more.

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

Professor Norpoth predicted in February of this year

And this thread premise has just been shattered

 

[The Great Goose]

If the election could be rigged, Trump would be the first to do it.

No, this election is not the most important by far in our history.

Trump is going to lose very badly, Mrs. M, and I want you to stay on the board.

He wouldn't. And he will win. He will get over 80% of the votes but it'll show at 55%

I like you, gosling, so I will be here for the day after the election to explain why Trump got dumped.

awww, ty darling. x

 

[asaratis]

What are all of you orange lemmings going to do in less than three weeks when the world of reason ends for you?

If that fantasy world happened then you really would be a lemming. forcibly marched off a cliff.

Thank you for confessing Trump is going to lose and that you are at heart a hard core fascist who dresses up in her SS uniform.

The liberals are the fascists of US politics today. Elect Hillary and you get George Soros.

 

[Mrs. M.]

Professor Norpoth predicted in February of this year

And this thread premise has just been shattered

No it hasn't. This interview is dated October 22nd, 2016. That is 3 days ago. Look at the youtube video date. 3 days ago. We're still on track.

 

[JakeStarkey]

What are all of you orange lemmings going to do in less than three weeks when the world of reason ends for you?

If that fantasy world happened then you really would be a lemming. forcibly marched off a cliff.

Thank you for confessing Trump is going to lose and that you are at heart a hard core fascist who dresses up in her SS uniform.

The liberals are the fascists of US politics today. Elect Hillary and you get George Soros.

Elect Trump you get Putin. asaratis, you are a sheeple.

 

[JakeStarkey]

Professor Norpoth predicted in February of this year

And this thread premise has just been shattered

No it hasn't. This interview is dated October 22nd, 2016. That is 3 days ago. Look at the youtube video date. 3 days ago. We're still on track.

All of the data was done before February.

 

[presonorek]

If Trump becomes president then we will have to eat food to survive but if Hillary becomes president our survival will depend upon eating food.

We have to decide.

 

[The Great Goose]

What are all of you orange lemmings going to do in less than three weeks when the world of reason ends for you?

If that fantasy world happened then you really would be a lemming. forcibly marched off a cliff.

Thank you for confessing Trump is going to lose and that you are at heart a hard core fascist who dresses up in her SS uniform.

The liberals are the fascists of US politics today. Elect Hillary and you get George Soros.

Elect Trump you get Putin. asaratis, you are a sheeple.

What Jake is trying to say is that he's very sorry and will be voting for Mr. Trump.

 

[JakeStarkey]

What are all of you orange lemmings going to do in less than three weeks when the world of reason ends for you?

If that fantasy world happened then you really would be a lemming. forcibly marched off a cliff.

Thank you for confessing Trump is going to lose and that you are at heart a hard core fascist who dresses up in her SS uniform.

The liberals are the fascists of US politics today. Elect Hillary and you get George Soros.

Elect Trump you get Putin. asaratis, you are a sheeple.

What Jake is trying to say is that he's very sorry and will be voting for Mr. Trump.

Already voted, for neither Trump nor Clinton.

 

[presonorek]

If that fantasy world happened then you really would be a lemming. forcibly marched off a cliff.

Thank you for confessing Trump is going to lose and that you are at heart a hard core fascist who dresses up in her SS uniform.

The liberals are the fascists of US politics today. Elect Hillary and you get George Soros.

Elect Trump you get Putin. asaratis, you are a sheeple.

What Jake is trying to say is that he's very sorry and will be voting for Mr. Trump.

Already voted, for neither Trump nor Clinton.

If your candidate wins then you will have to drink water, eat food and breathe air. Are you prepared for those consequences?

 

[JakeStarkey]

Thank you for confessing Trump is going to lose and that you are at heart a hard core fascist who dresses up in her SS uniform.

The liberals are the fascists of US politics today. Elect Hillary and you get George Soros.

Elect Trump you get Putin. asaratis, you are a sheeple.

What Jake is trying to say is that he's very sorry and will be voting for Mr. Trump.

Already voted, for neither Trump nor Clinton.

If your candidate wins then you will have to drink water, eat food and breathe air. Are you prepared for those consequences?

Oh, noes!! I am glad you are sounding reasonable again.

 

[Mrs. M.]

Professor Norpoth predicted in February of this year

And this thread premise has just been shattered

No it hasn't. This interview is dated October 22nd, 2016. That is 3 days ago. Look at the youtube video date. 3 days ago. We're still on track.

All of the data was done before February. View attachment 95105

So what? He said he is standing by his study as of 3 days ago. That's good enough for me. The study doesn't have an expiration date, Jake. As he said in the interview he can take that primary model and go back 100 years and prove it each time.

 

[JakeStarkey]

Professor Norpoth predicted in February of this year

And this thread premise has just been shattered

No it hasn't. This interview is dated October 22nd, 2016. That is 3 days ago. Look at the youtube video date. 3 days ago. We're still on track.

All of the data was done before February. View attachment 95105

So what? He said he is standing by his study as of 3 days ago. That's good enough for me. The study doesn't have an expiration date, Jake. As he said in the interview he can take that primary model and go back 100 years and prove it each time.

The study's shelf date was last February. Everything since then has not been factored in. You can go back 100 years, yes, but you can't go forward 100 days without its validity weakening each day as new events happen. Probability and statistics are forward looking, and need to be fed every day in this case. Norpoth?'s model's predictiveness is no longer dross much less golden.

 

[presonorek]

Professor Norpoth predicted in February of this year

And this thread premise has just been shattered

No it hasn't. This interview is dated October 22nd, 2016. That is 3 days ago. Look at the youtube video date. 3 days ago. We're still on track.

All of the data was done before February. View attachment 95105

So what? He said he is standing by his study as of 3 days ago. That's good enough for me. The study doesn't have an expiration date, Jake. As he said in the interview he can take that primary model and go back 100 years and prove it each time.

The study's shelf date was last February. Everything since then has not been factored in. You can go back 100 years, yes, but you can't go forward 100 days without its validity weakening each day as new events happen. Probability and statistics are forward looking, and need to be fed every day in this case. Norpoth?'s model's predictiveness is no longer dross much less golden.

He never factored in events between the primary and the general election. He used two models. One is based upon the performances of the candidates in the primary. The other is based upon the trend that a party rarely stays in power for 3 presidential terms. None of that will change between the last state's primary and November 8th.

 

[Mrs. M.]

Professor Norpoth predicted in February of this year

And this thread premise has just been shattered

No it hasn't. This interview is dated October 22nd, 2016. That is 3 days ago. Look at the youtube video date. 3 days ago. We're still on track.

All of the data was done before February. View attachment 95105

So what? He said he is standing by his study as of 3 days ago. That's good enough for me. The study doesn't have an expiration date, Jake. As he said in the interview he can take that primary model and go back 100 years and prove it each time.

The study's shelf date was last February. Everything since then has not been factored in. You can go back 100 years, yes, but you can't go forward 100 days without its validity weakening each day as new events happen. Probability and statistics are forward looking, and need to be fed every day in this case. Norpoth?'s model's predictiveness is no longer dross much less golden.

Jake, everything that was needed for the study has been factored in. No need for an update study. He's standing by the results as he said in the interview dated 3 days ago. If Hillary wins we know that it was by rigging the election. We already know she is rigging it but the question is will she be stopped. I believe she will be.

 

[presonorek]

Democrat 8 years - Obama
Republican 8 years - Bush
Democrat 8 years - Clinton
Republican 12 years - Bush, Reagan
Democrat 4 years - Carter
Republican 8 years - Nixon, Ford
Democrat 8 years - Johnson, Kennedy
Republican 8 years - Eisenhower
Democrat 20 years - Truman, Roosevelt

 

[asaratis]

What are all of you orange lemmings going to do in less than three weeks when the world of reason ends for you?

If that fantasy world happened then you really would be a lemming. forcibly marched off a cliff.

Thank you for confessing Trump is going to lose and that you are at heart a hard core fascist who dresses up in her SS uniform.

The liberals are the fascists of US politics today. Elect Hillary and you get George Soros.

Elect Trump you get Putin. asaratis, you are a sheeple.

That's about as ridiculous as it gets. However, it is expected of you.

 

[asaratis]

Democrat 8 years - Obama
Republican 8 years - Bush
Democrat 8 years - Clinton
Republican 12 years - Bush, Reagan
Democrat 4 years - Carter
Republican 8 years - Nixon, Ford
Democrat 8 years - Johnson, Kennedy
Republican 8 years - Eisenhower
Democrat 20 years - Truman, Roosevelt

How many of them had the House and the Senate at the same time? Obama had both for his first two years and still didn't do a damn thing.

 

[jillian]

Meet Helmut Norpoth - a Professor of Political Science at Stony Brook University who has created a statistical model of presidential elections that use a candidates performance in their party's primary and patterns in the electoral cycle as predictors of the presidential vote in the general election.

Professor Norpoth predicted in February of this year that Trump has a mininum 97 percent chance of winning the general election as the Republican Nominee.

He now states that according to his statistical model that it is an 87% - 99% certainty that Trump will be the next president of the United States. As we see in this breaking interview Professor Northrop is not backing down from his earlier prediction (although he is now giving a window of 87%-99% instead of minimum 97%). You can hear what he has to say in this interview with a major news television network.



In February the professor of political science at Stony Brook University had forecasted that Donald Trump had a minimum 97 percent chance of winning the general election as the Republican nominee. The following graph and information is based on his primary model. Link and information below.

the model​

The Primary Model (2016)​

87%-99% Certain Trump Will Be President Primaries Predict Election Winner

-- Cycle Also Favors GOP —​

Forecast Model Batting 5 for 5 (since 1996)​

by Helmut Norpoth​

It is 87% to 99% certainty that Donald Trump will win the presidential election on November 8, 2016; 87% if running against Hillary Clinton, 99% if against Bernie Sanders.

These predictions come from primarymodel.com

It is a statistical model that relies on presidential primaries and an election cycle as predictors of the vote in the general election.

Winning the early primaries is a major key for electoral victory in November. Trump won the Republican primaries in both New Hampshire and the South Carolina while Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders split the Democratic primaries in those states.

What favors the GOP in 2016 as well, no matter if Trump is the nominee or any other Republican, is the cycle of presidential elections. After two terms of Democrat Barack Obama in the White House the electoral pendulum is poised to swing to the GOP this year.

Interesting, isn't it? As you can see in Professor Norpoth's primary model along with his proven record (5 out of 5) of having 100% accuracy provides the evidence which proves Donald Trump should indeed be declared the next President of the United States.

Why present this primary model now? There is a great deal of evidence that points to the Clinton Camp rigging this election. Using this primary model and presentations of additional polling which runs counter to the polls liberal news media are using (see my Op-ed "Rigging Election") and admissions by the Democrat operatives of their mass election fraud tactics are useful tools to to build a case against Hillary Clinton. This will offer her the opportunity to abandon her plans to rig this election and accept defeat gracefully.

I'm sure it will come as a novel idea for Mrs. Clinton to do the right thing but with some help I'm sure that she can be persuaded. I believe that Cardinal Dolan is the right man to break the news to her. This type of scientific evidence / study has a proven record and cannot be refuted. Professor Helmut Norpoth stated that he can track primaries back 100 years and the model he uses proves consistent and accurate.

you're the second idiot who posted this today.

morons