6 Reasons Why Trump Will Win (2024 Edition)

[Lisa558]

Hey.

I've actually done one these lists in 2016 and 2020 both claiming I thought Trump would win. To be clear, I think I was right both time. Yes, I'm one of "those people" who think the 2020 election was stolen and January 6th was a False Flag, but either way, it's in the past.

Here's why I think Trump will win the election this year.

1. People like and have a begrudging respect for Trump.

In my previous two lists, I started them both by arguing that the entire election has been about Trump. While that mostly still applies this year, the truth is, I get the feeling people...kinda like Trump, or a minimum respect him. His tenacity, his brazenness, his perseverance, his humor and wit, I think have won a lot of people over. The barbs thrown at him seem less sharp, but more desperate, less precise. I've been a little floored by how many people openly support Trump now, and I'm not talking about MAGA fanboys who feel he can do no wrong. I think the culmination of the two assassination attempts, the neverending lawfare to get him thrown in prison, the constant whining about every thing the man says and does, has wound up producing the opposite effect.

2. Two key voting blocs will have a problem with Kamala.

Here's another holdover. I think it's been noticeable that Democrats' grasp with Black voters, specifically Black men, has been slipping. They don't like Kamala; they like her less than they liked Joe. And, I keep saying this but it's true: Hispanic voters, especially Hispanic men, do not like the idea of a woman being in charge. They're traditional in their mindset. Kamala's non-traditional in more ways than one. I don't think she's endeared herself to either group. This might be why she struggles winning over the swing state voters...because the typical Democrats in those states are lukewarm on her.

3. They tagged Kamala in too late in the game.

People had misgivings about Joe's health and mental capacity for governing back in 2020. The media gamely ran interference and covered for him until he gave that abysmal debate performance, then he begrudgingly stepped down. To be fair to Kamala, she should've had more than 3-4 months to run. She should've had at least a year build her own campaign and get her own message and vision out to the world. Instead, she's left taking the baton from Joe and trying to finish the race. I don't even know if Joe was going to win before he flamed out; Kamala stepping up to be his replacement probably isn't going to inspire voters he lost.

4. There's a growing backlash against women in this country that people don't want to talk about.

I feel like this started during the 2016 election and it's reached, or is reaching, its zenith. But there's this growing discontentment and low-flow resentment for women that I think people are feeling but don't entirely feel comfortable talking about. I think since 2020 men have excused themselves from culture and they're starting to express themselves more openly about how they're tired of Modern Women. They're tired of the preachiness; they're tired of the sanctimony; they're tired of the double standards; they're tired of the special treatment. A lot of the lack of men in the workforce is because so many companies prioritize promoting women and putting them in Middle Management and a lot of men are quite frankly over that. I know this is going to come off majorly sexist and while that's not my intent for saying it, I do think there's a lot of simmering resentment for women. Kamala somewhat exemplifies this Modern Woman ideal: a childless, big city liberal Girl Boss who largely built her career on sleeping with an older, well-connected man -- and in the shadow of MeToo more women should openly find this problematic -- and being a Token/Diversity Hire (as Biden shamelessly admitted he picked Kamala due to her race).

5. Trump Derangement Syndrome is cool and all but it don't pay the bills.

Inflation is kicking everybody's ass. Gas prices are high, food prices are high, everything is more expensive. You have young people graduating college who can't even afford a one bedroom apartment despite having a "real job" and a college degree. I think reality is kicking people in the teeth to where doing they're looking for answers and solutions from the people in power, and what have Democrats done to alleviate this? There's a school of thought that many people don't actually believe anything can be done to fix these problems so if they must suffer, they would rather suffer under someone they like, but if people are properly motivated and moved by our economy, I think this will hurt Kamala and definitely the down ticket Democrats. The media wants to keep distracting people from the realities of the economy by documenting every calumny from Trump and I think people are basically over it.

6. Democrats can't keep getting away with stealing elections without hurting their brand in the long-term.

I don't know what else to tell you [shrugs]. Eventually y'all have to let the Republicans win one. Had they simply sat back and let Trump get re-elected in 2020, we'd be almost done caring about him a viable candidate and political figure. But they had to go all in on making sure he didn't get re-elected, and then making sure Republicans' mid-term prospects were blunted, that they have just created a stronger, more viable candidate in Trump. If he loses, Democrats are risking a lame-duck candidate in Kamala and the possibility of a Republican supermajority all because they can't admit people actually like Donald Trump despite all the efforts to make him look like the worst person ever. And there's the lingering stench of hypocrisy. We saw Hillary and Joe Biden get a pass for mishandling classified documents but we're supposed to hope they catch Trump for having them and he was the President? We want Trump to be sent to prison because he paid off Stormy Daniels, a "crime" nobody else has been charged and convicted of? Or because he wanted all the voters counted properly in GA? It just looks like what it is: a desperate attempt to make Trump so thoroughly unlikable that nobody will care if you simply cheat because he's such an awful person so who cares.

Lastly, a prediction: if Trump wins, it's going to be quite handily and noticed quite early. That's if, they don't find a way to steal it for Kamala.

I’d like to add to your point #4, “backlash against women.” I see a backlash against DEI, in which lesser or totally incompetent blacks (and ESPECIALLY black women) are selected for positions based on race and gender, leapfrogging over more qualified whites.

Can we honestly say, for example, that the Press Secretary was the best Biden, or rather his handlers, could find? Of course not. But they wanted a black female.

And the worst example of course was the Kamala pick as VP - a woman so unliked and unqualified that she came in dead last in her attempted run for the presidency in 2020 and had to drop out even before the Iowa caucus - simply because the president prioritized the “black female” combo over merit, and he admitted it in advance.

So the Dems were stuck between a demented president and an unqualified DEI pick, and then went with the DEI pick. And Americans are sick of having people like Kamala - completely inept - getting roles they are unqualified for due to their female blackness. Selecting people for critical jobs this way is a recipe for disaster.

 

[Lisa558]

View attachment 1036784

The OP can stop repeating what the RWM says about black voters. This is the current data pertaining to the blacks who have already voted.

2024 National BVP Study — Black Voter Project

2024 National Black Voter Project Longitudinal Study

blackvoterproject.com

Well sure blacks will SAY they voted for the incompetent Harris because of people like you - who call them Uncle Toms for voting for the better candidate.

 

[Kondor3]

Hey.

I've actually done one these lists in 2016 and 2020 both claiming I thought Trump would win. To be clear, I think I was right both time. Yes, I'm one of "those people" who think the 2020 election was stolen and January 6th was a False Flag, but either way, it's in the past.

Here's why I think Trump will win the election this year.

1. People like and have a begrudging respect for Trump.

In my previous two lists, I started them both by arguing that the entire election has been about Trump. While that mostly still applies this year, the truth is, I get the feeling people...kinda like Trump, or a minimum respect him. His tenacity, his brazenness, his perseverance, his humor and wit, I think have won a lot of people over. The barbs thrown at him seem less sharp, but more desperate, less precise. I've been a little floored by how many people openly support Trump now, and I'm not talking about MAGA fanboys who feel he can do no wrong. I think the culmination of the two assassination attempts, the neverending lawfare to get him thrown in prison, the constant whining about every thing the man says and does, has wound up producing the opposite effect.

2. Two key voting blocs will have a problem with Kamala.

Here's another holdover. I think it's been noticeable that Democrats' grasp with Black voters, specifically Black men, has been slipping. They don't like Kamala; they like her less than they liked Joe. And, I keep saying this but it's true: Hispanic voters, especially Hispanic men, do not like the idea of a woman being in charge. They're traditional in their mindset. Kamala's non-traditional in more ways than one. I don't think she's endeared herself to either group. This might be why she struggles winning over the swing state voters...because the typical Democrats in those states are lukewarm on her.

3. They tagged Kamala in too late in the game.

People had misgivings about Joe's health and mental capacity for governing back in 2020. The media gamely ran interference and covered for him until he gave that abysmal debate performance, then he begrudgingly stepped down. To be fair to Kamala, she should've had more than 3-4 months to run. She should've had at least a year build her own campaign and get her own message and vision out to the world. Instead, she's left taking the baton from Joe and trying to finish the race. I don't even know if Joe was going to win before he flamed out; Kamala stepping up to be his replacement probably isn't going to inspire voters he lost.

4. There's a growing backlash against women in this country that people don't want to talk about.

I feel like this started during the 2016 election and it's reached, or is reaching, its zenith. But there's this growing discontentment and low-flow resentment for women that I think people are feeling but don't entirely feel comfortable talking about. I think since 2020 men have excused themselves from culture and they're starting to express themselves more openly about how they're tired of Modern Women. They're tired of the preachiness; they're tired of the sanctimony; they're tired of the double standards; they're tired of the special treatment. A lot of the lack of men in the workforce is because so many companies prioritize promoting women and putting them in Middle Management and a lot of men are quite frankly over that. I know this is going to come off majorly sexist and while that's not my intent for saying it, I do think there's a lot of simmering resentment for women. Kamala somewhat exemplifies this Modern Woman ideal: a childless, big city liberal Girl Boss who largely built her career on sleeping with an older, well-connected man -- and in the shadow of MeToo more women should openly find this problematic -- and being a Token/Diversity Hire (as Biden shamelessly admitted he picked Kamala due to her race).

5. Trump Derangement Syndrome is cool and all but it don't pay the bills.

Inflation is kicking everybody's ass. Gas prices are high, food prices are high, everything is more expensive. You have young people graduating college who can't even afford a one bedroom apartment despite having a "real job" and a college degree. I think reality is kicking people in the teeth to where doing they're looking for answers and solutions from the people in power, and what have Democrats done to alleviate this? There's a school of thought that many people don't actually believe anything can be done to fix these problems so if they must suffer, they would rather suffer under someone they like, but if people are properly motivated and moved by our economy, I think this will hurt Kamala and definitely the down ticket Democrats. The media wants to keep distracting people from the realities of the economy by documenting every calumny from Trump and I think people are basically over it.

6. Democrats can't keep getting away with stealing elections without hurting their brand in the long-term.

I don't know what else to tell you [shrugs]. Eventually y'all have to let the Republicans win one. Had they simply sat back and let Trump get re-elected in 2020, we'd be almost done caring about him a viable candidate and political figure. But they had to go all in on making sure he didn't get re-elected, and then making sure Republicans' mid-term prospects were blunted, that they have just created a stronger, more viable candidate in Trump. If he loses, Democrats are risking a lame-duck candidate in Kamala and the possibility of a Republican supermajority all because they can't admit people actually like Donald Trump despite all the efforts to make him look like the worst person ever. And there's the lingering stench of hypocrisy. We saw Hillary and Joe Biden get a pass for mishandling classified documents but we're supposed to hope they catch Trump for having them and he was the President? We want Trump to be sent to prison because he paid off Stormy Daniels, a "crime" nobody else has been charged and convicted of? Or because he wanted all the voters counted properly in GA? It just looks like what it is: a desperate attempt to make Trump so thoroughly unlikable that nobody will care if you simply cheat because he's such an awful person so who cares.

Lastly, a prediction: if Trump wins, it's going to be quite handily and noticed quite early. That's if, they don't find a way to steal it for Kamala.

If Trump wins, it will be attributable to...

1. Economy
2. Illegal Immigration
3. High taxes
4. High crime
5. Race relations
6. Foreign policy failures
7. LGBTQ insanity
8. Runaway misguided military sending

 

[Lisa558]

If Trump wins, it will be attributable to...

1. Economy
2. Illegal Immigration
3. High taxes
4. High crime
5. Race relations
6. Foreign policy failures

….combined with the fact that his opponent is completely inept, cannot answer a basic question, changes her positions at whim depending on the audience, is a nasty woman who has compared Trump to Hitler (and her VP calling an audience of Trump voters “Nazis”), and was part of a coup to oust her boss and take his place.

 

[Kondor3]

….combined with the fact that his opponent is completely inept, cannot answer a basic question, changes her positions at whim depending on the audience, is a nasty woman who has compared Trump to Hitler (and her VP calling an audience of Trump voters “Nazis”), and was part of a coup to oust her boss and take his place.

Those are all secondary reasons at best... and irrelevant at worst... angst-fuel for The Base but not much beyond that...

 

[TimFitz]

I think your entire post is excellent.

And yes, there are people who bristle about Trump. They might not like him, but they respect him. And I'd rather be respected than liked.

The only people who respect Trump are his core supporters.

Vladimir Putin doesn’t respect Trump. He knows he’s a fool who can be easily played.

If vulgarity, ignorance, lying, bellowing and bullying are what people think commands respect, than he’s all yours.

 

[Moonglow]

Please don't get too upset when he loses AGAIN!

He'll be on the ground crying like a baby.

 

[Lisa558]

Those are all secondary reasons at best... and irrelevant at worst... angst-fuel for The Base but not much beyond that...

No, they’re not irrelevant. The fact that Kamala is an incompetent DEI pick will factor into the decision of many Dems who can’t bring themselves to vote for her and will instead stay home.

 

[Kondor3]

No, they’re not irrelevant. The fact that Kamala is an incompetent DEI pick will factor into the decision of many Dems who can’t bring themselves to vote for her and will instead stay home.

Is that anything like "many Pubs who can't bring themselves to vote for him"?

It's a very, very good guess that there are more Republicans refusing to vote for Trump, than there are Democrats who refuse to vote for Harris... and you know that just as well as I do. At best, it's a "wash", but Harris has a slight advantage in that context, methinks. In any event, we'll know soon enough.

 

[martybegan]

I’d like to add to your point #4, “backlash against women.” I see a backlash against DEI, in which lesser or totally incompetent blacks (and ESPECIALLY black women) are selected for positions based on race and gender, leapfrogging over more qualified whites.

Can we honestly say, for example, that the Press Secretary was the best Biden, or rather his handlers, could find? Of course not. But they wanted a black female.

And the worst example of course was the Kamala pick as VP - a woman so unliked and unqualified that she came in dead last in her attempted run for the presidency in 2020 and had to drop out even before the Iowa caucus - simply because the president prioritized the “black female” combo over merit, and he admitted it in advance.

So the Dems were stuck between a demented president and an unqualified DEI pick, and then went with the DEI pick. And Americans are sick of having people like Kamala - completely inept - getting roles they are unqualified for due to their female blackness. Selecting people for critical jobs this way is a recipe for disaster.

It's not against women, it's against AWFL's, (Affluent White female Liberals).

Somewhere along the feminist road the mantra went from "woman can be anything they want" to "women need to fit this single cookie cutter stereotype"

 

[Lisa558]

Is that anything like "many Pubs who can't bring themselves to vote for him"?

It's a very, very good guess that there are more Republicans refusing to vote for Trump, than there are Democrats who refuse to vote for Harris... and you know that just as well as I do. At best, it's a "wash", but Harris has a slight advantage in that context, methinks. In any event, we'll know soon enough.

No, I don’t know that it’s a wash. It’s evident to all but the far-left that Kamala is completely unqualified and Trump has a record of success as president.

We shall see.

 

[Billiejeens]

Man...imagine how pissed off you’re going to be when (if) women start making as much as men.

You should post more often...to remind us just how bad it could be.

Women with the same experience, knowledge, and qualification as men make as much as men.

This whole women make less crap is simply nonsense.
If employers could pay women less and get the same results, there would not be one unemployed woman in the country.

 

[Billiejeens]

No. women makes less because they work more part-time than men; their careers get interrupted with childbirth and rearing; and they are poor negotiators.

I don't know about the poor negotiators part
the rest is spot on.

 

[kyzr]

So, why are you blaming Biden?

He isn't the one setting prices.

1. I blame Biden because he is the one who opened the border and let in about 12,000,000 illegals, including 100,000 Chinese, 50,000 Russians, thousands of criminals, and hundreds of known terrorists, including ISIS.
Biden/Harris are National Security Disasters.

2. Not only that but then they are giving the 12,000,000 or illegals FREE FOOD and FREE HOUSING. According to the LAW of Supply & Demand if demand increases but the supply is the same.....PRICES RISE, DUH.

3. I assume you are an Obama fan, and liked the Obama years?
OBAMA WAS KNOWN AS "THE DEPORTER-IN-CHIEF" so Obama and Trump have the same immigration policy, stupid Joe Biden and Kamala have the WRONG IMMIGRATION POLICY.

4. Watch as Trump deports illegals and the "demand" for food decreases, the price of food should also decrease.

5. Obama had it right when he said "Never underestimate Joe's ability to **** things up".

 

[candycorn]

Women with the same experience, knowledge, and qualification as men make as much as men.

This whole women make less crap is simply nonsense.
If employers could pay women less and get the same results, there would not be one unemployed woman in the country.

Not even remotely true

 

[kyzr]

Those are all secondary reasons at best... and irrelevant at worst... angst-fuel for The Base but not much beyond that...

A primary reason is that Kamala is too stupid to be president.
1. She flunked her Bar Exam
2. She can't do a real press conference
3. She can't discuss wide-ranging policy issues
4. She is NOT presidential, she is a "cheerleader" when we need real answers.
5. She would be another Biden, a "Manchurian President" reading teleprompters doing as told.

 

[JoeB131]

I will try to take this seriously...

1. People like and have a begrudging respect for Trump.

No, they don't, most people think Trump is a buffoon. He's been acting particularly buffoonish in the last few weeks.

2. Two key voting blocs will have a problem with Kamala.

Harris has closed the gap with blacks and Hispanic men, and after Trump's Nazi Rally in MSG, any person of color still unclear on the point has gotten the message.

3. They tagged Kamala in too late in the game.

You might have a point here. If Harris loses, it will probably be because of this.

4. There's a growing backlash against women in this country that people don't want to talk about.

I think this is true to a degree, but it cuts both ways. Certainly, watching all the incels get upset about a woman headlining Star Wars or some other thing they considered a male domain is loud, but I don't think it reflects the majority of men.

Simply put, hoping misogyny defeats Harris like it defeated Hillary is magical thinking. Hillary's problems went far beyond her gender. She was the only candidate who could have lost to Trump.

5. Trump Derangement Syndrome is cool and all but it don't pay the bills.

I agree. What pays the bills is the record-low unemployment that Harris/Biden have given us. The problem is the media has gaslit people into thinking the economy is bad because people haven't psychologically recovered from Covid.

I can kind of get this. My parents lived through the Great Depression and the Wartime Austerity, and even 40 years later, it effected their mindsets.

6. Democrats can't keep getting away with stealing elections without hurting their brand in the long-term.

No elections were stolen. The reality is, the GOP Base has been shrinking for years. If the GOP is a white identity party, now that white people have shrunk to 65% of the electorate, it just becomes harder for the GOP to win elections. Trump's racist MSG Rally will send minorities fleeing to Kamala.

Lastly, a prediction: if Trump wins, it's going to be quite handily and noticed quite early. That's if, they don't find a way to steal it for Kamala.

Trump isn't going to win. Here's the problem. In 2016, he spent the last few weeks appealing to the middle. He has spent the last few weeks in this campaign throwing red meat to his base, but alienating just about everyone else.


Democrats have higher enthusiasm
Harris has higher favorability ratings than Trump does.
The voting patterns are showing women are voting 55-45 compared to men. When more women show up, it's good for Democrats.
The Democrats have a far superior ground operation.

And I think that there is a hope that if we send Trump packing tonight, we'll never have to hear from him again, which most people will be grateful for.

 

[Lesh]

No. women makes less because they work more part-time than men; their careers get interrupted with childbirth and rearing; and they are poor negotiators.

This is the same clown who noted a “growing backlash against women”

Hey jackass… they outnumber men… and they vote

 

[Nuthin' Fancy]

1. I blame Biden because he is the one who opened the border and let in about 12,000,000 illegals, including 100,000 Chinese, 50,000 Russians, thousands of criminals, and hundreds of known terrorists, including ISIS.
Biden/Harris are National Security Disasters.

2. Not only that but then they are giving the 12,000,000 or illegals FREE FOOD and FREE HOUSING. According to the LAW of Supply & Demand if demand increases but the supply is the same.....PRICES RISE, DUH.

BOTH are fake news.
Either Hannity.com or "Truth" social.

Even if it was BAD, given the chance, why did your dear leader refuse to do ANYTHING?
Then he could have kept his Big Mac hole shut, instead, Trump and his cult, killed the border bill.

3. I assume you are an Obama fan, and liked the Obama years?
OBAMA WAS KNOWN AS "THE DEPORTER-IN-CHIEF" so Obama and Trump have the same immigration policy, stupid Joe Biden and Kamala have the WRONG IMMIGRATION POLICY.

www.migrationpolicy.org · article · bidenThe Biden Administration Is on Pace to Match Trump ...​

Jun 27, 2024 · The Biden administration is on pace to carry out as many deportations as the Trump administration, although an overwhelming number have come in the form of voluntary.....

4. Watch as Trump deports illegals and the "demand" for food decreases, the price of food should also decrease.

Really?
Trump said drilling would do that...................

5. Obama had it right when he said "Never underestimate Joe's ability to **** things up".

 

[Lesh]

Another man talking about another man's junk in public, should trigger everyone.

And deep throating a microphone?

Who does that??

Lordy