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57-40 now support a public option? I read that and thought there is no way this can be true, especially when we just read from Rasmussen Reports, the polling outfit that actually got the closest to predicting the real outcome of the election last year, that their brand new poll shows support for Obamacare has slipped to 42-54 against the plan.
That's a gigantic swing between the two polls in such a short period of time over essentially the same issue. Time to go to the sampling to see which poll is bogus. Back to the Post. If you keep reading through the seemingly endless analysis by Balz and Cohen about what the results of their numbers mean for Obama, for Congress, and for the country, you get to the ideological makeup used to generate this "poll". Ready?
Only 20 percent of adults identify themselves as Republicans, little changed in recent months, but still the lowest single number in Post-ABC polls since 1983. Political independents continue to make up the largest group, at 42 percent of respondents; 33 percent call themselves Democrats.
ABC News/Washington Post pollsters called just over a thousand people, only found 20% who said they were Republicans, and they think it's news that Obamacare is now winning the day in American public opinion overwhelmingly. I'm stunned. I think I need to go lie down.
Just in case anyone out there is interested in reality, Rasmussen reported that at the end of September of this year, the party breakdown in the country was 32.1% Republican, 37.5% Democrat, and if you lumped the rest into independents, which they certainly aren't, you'd get 30.4% independent. Keep in mind, that in this Rasmussen poll, this is registered voters, not likely voters. If you use likely voters, the spread between Democrats and Republicans gets even tighter as Republicans in general tend historically to be more likely to vote than Democrats. That is, unless you are involved with ACORN, in which case you are likely to vote several times, and encourage all the illegal brothels you've assisted to do the same.
(cont...)
Townhall.com Blog : Duane R. Patterson : Hoaxes And Busted Polling. Just Another Day In MSM
Another bogus Washington Post / ABC poll? ...Color me SHOCKED.
57-40 now support a public option? I read that and thought there is no way this can be true, especially when we just read from Rasmussen Reports, the polling outfit that actually got the closest to predicting the real outcome of the election last year, that their brand new poll shows support for Obamacare has slipped to 42-54 against the plan.
That's a gigantic swing between the two polls in such a short period of time over essentially the same issue. Time to go to the sampling to see which poll is bogus. Back to the Post. If you keep reading through the seemingly endless analysis by Balz and Cohen about what the results of their numbers mean for Obama, for Congress, and for the country, you get to the ideological makeup used to generate this "poll". Ready?
Only 20 percent of adults identify themselves as Republicans, little changed in recent months, but still the lowest single number in Post-ABC polls since 1983. Political independents continue to make up the largest group, at 42 percent of respondents; 33 percent call themselves Democrats.
ABC News/Washington Post pollsters called just over a thousand people, only found 20% who said they were Republicans, and they think it's news that Obamacare is now winning the day in American public opinion overwhelmingly. I'm stunned. I think I need to go lie down.
Just in case anyone out there is interested in reality, Rasmussen reported that at the end of September of this year, the party breakdown in the country was 32.1% Republican, 37.5% Democrat, and if you lumped the rest into independents, which they certainly aren't, you'd get 30.4% independent. Keep in mind, that in this Rasmussen poll, this is registered voters, not likely voters. If you use likely voters, the spread between Democrats and Republicans gets even tighter as Republicans in general tend historically to be more likely to vote than Democrats. That is, unless you are involved with ACORN, in which case you are likely to vote several times, and encourage all the illegal brothels you've assisted to do the same.
(cont...)
Townhall.com Blog : Duane R. Patterson : Hoaxes And Busted Polling. Just Another Day In MSM
Oh I get it!
It can't be right because Rassmussen says so!
But what the news outlets failed to report in their coverage about the Washington Post-ABC poll was the fact that 38% of the individuals who made up the poll identified themselves as Democrats, while only 28% identified themselves as Republicans. (See poll question #901.) Not surprisingly, a poll of mostly Democrats revealed that most of them wanted Democrat Barack Obama to be president rather than Republican John McCain. (Last month, the same poll used a 13-point edge for the Democrats among likely voters to produce similar results heading into the conventions.) The heavily skewed partisan nature of the poll is the real story, not the bogus numbers produced as a result of what is essentially a push poll.
The poll tweaked the numbers in Obamas favor in other ways as well. Even the so-called independents that comprised the poll were actually more partisan than independent. When asked towards which political party they lean, the independents who replied Democrat outnumbered those who responded Republican by an 18% margin! (See poll question #904.) Thats not a lean; thats a landslide yet it only produced a nine-point lead for Obama.
(cont....)
Pajamas Media » Bogus Poll Intended to Boost Obama
Rasmussen's Daily Prez Approval Index: misleading and biased
August 4, 2009, 12:27AM
Some time ago I noticed that after Obama was elected, Rasmussen started using a new statistic on his Daily Presidential Tracking Poll.
The poll has four answers: Strongly Approve (StA), Somewhat Approve (SmA), Somewhat Disapprove (SmD), and Strongly Disapprove (StD).
While Bush was president, Rasmussen did not regularly (if at all!) calculate Presidential Approval Index, but now he does.
While Bush was president, Rasmussen reported explicitly the numbers for all 4 categories. Now he only reports the StA, StD, and the total approval and disapproval. SmA and SmD are no longer reported explicitly, one has to calculate them on one's own.
While Bush was president, Rasmussen usually emphasized total approval percentage, TA=StA+SmA, versus total disapproval percentage, TD=StD+SmD.
However, when Obama became president, he started emphasizing only the strong approval and disapproval, and his presidential approval index is calculated as (S)PAI=StA-StD.
This, I feel, is often misleading. For example, Rasmussen's Obama (strong) approval index for yesterday (August 3, 2009) was -6 since StA=30% and StD=36%. However, if we read past first paragraph of the daily article on the tracking poll, we see that Obama's total approval is TA=51% and total disapproval is TD=48%.
Why not calculate Obama's total approval rating (T)PAI=TA-TD, which would make yesterday's (T)PAI=51-48=+3 instead of -6?
Well, let's see. In the 195 days since Obama took office, his strong approval rating was positive on 154 days, negative on 37 days (and not calculated on 4 holidays). During the same time Obama's total approval rating was positive on 183 days and negative on only 8 days (actually, consecutive days, July 24-31).
The value of the strong approval rating (S)PAI varied between +30 and -12, while the value of the total approval rating (T)PAI varied between +35 and -3 and was always (or at least nearly always) greater than (S)PAI.
So if you look at Obama's (S)PAI, you'll see that his rating has been negative for 33 consecutive days and counting, and reached into negative double digits, which the graph with strong positives and negatives and the PAI trend conveniently illustrates.
However, if you bother to look at Obama's total approval and disapproval and calculate (T)PAI on your own and graph the negative red line on your own (since only one line for total positives is provided on the corresponding graph), you'll see that his rating had been barely negative, and only for the past week out of his whole term so far, and that he has rebounded this week and is in the green again.
So why is Rasmussen doing that? He is, of course, known to be conservative, but he has shown some restraint until recently in bending statistics to his political beliefs. Why throw away that certain amount of reputation he accumulated for relative objectivity, and for what? For that little bit of extra premium self-delusion?
washingtonpost.com
People are still unsure on this particular package, but the general will seems pretty clear.
washingtonpost.com
People are still unsure on this particular package, but the general will seems pretty clear.
My prediction: A bill will be passed in December that will not include a public option and will raise rates and taxes for everybody while increasing the national debt by at least $1 trillion and will lower the quality of service for everybody.
Google is our friend
Rassmussen is a blatant right wing tool
Oh I get it!
It can't be right because Rassmussen says so!
Hey... it's not like this is the first time Washington Post / ABC has rigged the sampling. From last year:
But what the news outlets failed to report in their coverage about the Washington Post-ABC poll was the fact that 38% of the individuals who made up the poll identified themselves as Democrats, while only 28% identified themselves as Republicans. (See poll question #901.) Not surprisingly, a poll of mostly Democrats revealed that most of them wanted Democrat Barack Obama to be president rather than Republican John McCain. (Last month, the same poll used a 13-point edge for the Democrats among likely voters to produce similar results heading into the conventions.) The heavily skewed partisan nature of the poll is the real story, not the bogus numbers produced as a result of what is essentially a push poll.
The poll tweaked the numbers in Obamas favor in other ways as well. Even the so-called independents that comprised the poll were actually more partisan than independent. When asked towards which political party they lean, the independents who replied Democrat outnumbered those who responded Republican by an 18% margin! (See poll question #904.) Thats not a lean; thats a landslide yet it only produced a nine-point lead for Obama.
(cont....)
Pajamas Media » Bogus Poll Intended to Boost Obama
Have some intellectual curiosity. Google is your friend, man.
Do you have evidence that the poll cited in the OP is skewed?
Health Care Policies
Much of the public remains unconvinced that the reform proposals would benefit them personally - just 18 percent think they would. In fact, 31 percent believe reforms would hurt them and another 45 percent think they would have no effect.
Republicans (5 percent), seniors (7 percent) and those with insurance (14 percent) are some of the least likely groups to say they would be helped by the current reform proposals. Democrats (26 percent) and those earning less than $50,000 (25 percent) are most likely to say they would be helped.
The much-debated "public option" -- a government-run insurance plan -- still has the support of 62 percent of the public.
When asked to choose between providing coverage to the uninsured and keeping down costs as the more serious problem right now, 59 percent of Americans choose expanding coverage while 35 percent select keeping costs down.
This poll also asked Americans about the state of the economy: 84 percent say the economy is in bad shape, and just 16 percent say it is good. The unemployment rate reached a 26-year high last month, and the economy lost more jobs in September than anticipated.
Americans' outlook for the national economy has not changed since last month; the good news may be that most don't think it's getting worse. Just under a third think it is getting better, and 18 percent say it is getting worse. About half think it is staying the same.
Do you have evidence that the poll cited in the OP is skewed?
I'll take your switching polls from ABC to CBS as you can't refute my points in the first post
I have not talked with A SINGLE PERSON yet who wants the government in the health care business.
House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio) has just more or less dared proponents of a public option to bombard his office with their expressions of support of the plan.
Boehner claimed, with a semi-straight face, that he has yet to meet a regular "American" who favors the option -- despite polls showing that a majority of voters support to the idea of having the choice of a government plan.
A recent CBS/NY Times poll showed 62% support public option
Poll: Congress Gets Low Health Care Grade - CBS News
Health Care Policies
Much of the public remains unconvinced that the reform proposals would benefit them personally - just 18 percent think they would. In fact, 31 percent believe reforms would hurt them and another 45 percent think they would have no effect.
