I don't see how he doesn't. There is no one in the Democratic Party to pick up the banner if he drops it right now. Not HIllary, she'd look like an ingrate if she challenged him.
The thing is, the reason why it is usually so difficult to vote out incumbants is that human nature is such that people are loathe to admit they made a mistake. 69 million people voted for Obama last time, compared to 57 million who voted for McCain. In order to make it competitive, you have to get six million of those people to change sides or stay home, while keeping all of your guys.
And the REpublicans seem intent on nominating a guy a lot of Republicans won't vote for either because of his religion or the fact he's a closet liberal.
Your thread is somewhat accurate
it really comes down to Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania
the 6 million vote swing could happen in Florida, NY and California
But I give you kudos for your thread
I don't think you are going to see a situation like 2000 again. I think that if you have a situation like that, no one is going to say, "Screw the voters, I'm going for our guy!" If it comes down to the EC, Obama already has an obscene advantage because he has California, NY and IL locked up. All the GOP can count on is Texas. (Unless Romney manages to tick off hispanics!) Florida, Ohio and PA are the wild cards. PA less so if the GOP legislature gets it way and makes the allocation proportional.
It seems to me that the GOP had a lot of good candidates- Huckabee, Daniels, Pawlenty, Barbour - and managed to drive them off. So now we are stuck with Romney and Perry. Seriously?