5 things to watch for in Nevada’s GOP caucuses
Can Trump win a caucus?
Trump has proved that he can turn out his supporters in high numbers, posting decisive wins in both the New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries.
But Nevada’s caucus process, which typically draws low voter turnout, could complicate his rise there. Trump’s only loss this election cycle occurred in Iowa’s caucuses, to Cruz.
Ground games are essential in caucus states, and that’s a spot where Trump has lagged compared to rivals like Cruz and Rubio.
Can Rubio break out?
Fresh off a tight second-place finish in South Carolina, Rubio has been bolstered by the departure of Jeb Bush as he looks to lock in his role as the establishment candidate and post a decisive win ahead of Super Tuesday.
The Florida senator likely is hoping to replicate Romney’s 2012 strategy, which relied in part on winning about 90 percent of the Mormon vote. Rubio has a unique appeal with that segment, having been baptized into the church as a child while living in Las Vegas before leaving the faith as a teenager.
Can Cruz dominate with the base?
Cruz is in many ways the most conservative candidate in the field, typically a boon because primary voters trend further toward the political poles than the general electorate.
But while he sits in second place in the delegate count, with 11 compared to Trump’s 68, his path seems more complicated in Nevada.
The state lacks an overwhelming evangelical population, voters Cruz has worked hard to win over. But even with that natural constituency, Cruz has seen Trump win the bloc in two of the three contests so far, and Ben Carson’s long-shot candidacy continues to divert evangelicals his way.
Is this Carson’s swan song?
Carson is largely expected to finish as an afterthought in Nevada as his presidential campaign continues to sputter along.
It’s all been downhill for Carson since a fourth-place result in Iowa, finishing eighth in New Hampshire and sixth in South Carolina.
But the retired neurosurgeon, once battling Trump for the top of the polls, continues to press on, arguing he owes it to his supporters to try to turn his campaign around.
How will pre-caucus polls fare?
Nevada is a notoriously difficult state to poll. So while pundits and political junkies have labored on every fluctuation in the dozens of polls in other early-voting states, Republicans head into Nevada largely flying blind.
There have been just five polls of Nevada Republicans aggregated by RealClearPolitics during this cycle — three by Gravis and two by CNN/ORC — and just two of them in 2016.
CNN’s most recent figures showed Trump with a dominating lead, followed by Rubio and Cruz locked in a tight race for second.
5 things to watch for in Nevada’s GOP caucuses
Although Trump is expected to come out with a win tonight, it will be interesting to see if the caucus will favor him or an alternative as it did in Iowa.
Can Trump win a caucus?
Trump has proved that he can turn out his supporters in high numbers, posting decisive wins in both the New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries.
But Nevada’s caucus process, which typically draws low voter turnout, could complicate his rise there. Trump’s only loss this election cycle occurred in Iowa’s caucuses, to Cruz.
Ground games are essential in caucus states, and that’s a spot where Trump has lagged compared to rivals like Cruz and Rubio.
Can Rubio break out?
Fresh off a tight second-place finish in South Carolina, Rubio has been bolstered by the departure of Jeb Bush as he looks to lock in his role as the establishment candidate and post a decisive win ahead of Super Tuesday.
The Florida senator likely is hoping to replicate Romney’s 2012 strategy, which relied in part on winning about 90 percent of the Mormon vote. Rubio has a unique appeal with that segment, having been baptized into the church as a child while living in Las Vegas before leaving the faith as a teenager.
Can Cruz dominate with the base?
Cruz is in many ways the most conservative candidate in the field, typically a boon because primary voters trend further toward the political poles than the general electorate.
But while he sits in second place in the delegate count, with 11 compared to Trump’s 68, his path seems more complicated in Nevada.
The state lacks an overwhelming evangelical population, voters Cruz has worked hard to win over. But even with that natural constituency, Cruz has seen Trump win the bloc in two of the three contests so far, and Ben Carson’s long-shot candidacy continues to divert evangelicals his way.
Is this Carson’s swan song?
Carson is largely expected to finish as an afterthought in Nevada as his presidential campaign continues to sputter along.
It’s all been downhill for Carson since a fourth-place result in Iowa, finishing eighth in New Hampshire and sixth in South Carolina.
But the retired neurosurgeon, once battling Trump for the top of the polls, continues to press on, arguing he owes it to his supporters to try to turn his campaign around.
How will pre-caucus polls fare?
Nevada is a notoriously difficult state to poll. So while pundits and political junkies have labored on every fluctuation in the dozens of polls in other early-voting states, Republicans head into Nevada largely flying blind.
There have been just five polls of Nevada Republicans aggregated by RealClearPolitics during this cycle — three by Gravis and two by CNN/ORC — and just two of them in 2016.
CNN’s most recent figures showed Trump with a dominating lead, followed by Rubio and Cruz locked in a tight race for second.
5 things to watch for in Nevada’s GOP caucuses
Although Trump is expected to come out with a win tonight, it will be interesting to see if the caucus will favor him or an alternative as it did in Iowa.
