332-206 Part Deaux (or maybe 314-224)

[konradv]

10 months later…still looking like a landslide for Clinton.

Nate Silver has it going even worse for Trump. If he wins all the races listed as "close", Trump still loses by more than 50 EVs.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

 

[candycorn]

I'm calling it. 332-206, Hillary.

It's about 500 days (give or take) to the 2016 Presidential Election. I'm calling 332-206 for Hillary and the Democrats.

The GOP isn't giving anyone a reason to consider them and the Democrats have piled up victory after victory since their lackluster showing in 2014.

The only caveat is that it may well be more than 332 electoral votes for Hillary. If the current trends continue, the rapidly growing Hispanic demographic in Arizona may lead to it's 10 votes going to the Democrats but 2016 may be too early for the state to switch. Definitely by 2020.

Also, if Kasich is the nominee for the GOP, you may see Ohio switch. That would move 18 from D to R resulting in 314-224.

Anyway, you heard it here first.

Still looking good for HRC although the margin may not be as robust as I thought.