2025-2026 Deficit Tracking Thread.

[HikerGuy83]

This thread will be used to report on a running (monthly if we can get it) basis....the deficit.

At the end of fiscal 2025, the deficit was revised down by 200 billion and some of that was attributed to the tariff revenue. I added that to my thread on the 2025 deficit.

This will be for something different.

As I said in my thread:

Thread '2025 Deficit comes in at 1.97 Trillion. This Is Way Out of Hand'

Oct 13, 2025

Well.....this is great news.

The 2025 deficit was 1.97 trillion. Total revenue was 4.69 trillion which means our deficit was 42% of total revenue and 29.5% of total spending.

I don't have an actual figure, but you can count on 1 trillion of spending on debt servicing alone. 1 FREAKING TRILLION.

In 2024 the deficit was 1.83 trillion.

AND NOBODY CARES (in government).

This is beyond reprehensible.

Your Guide to America’s Finances

Check out @FiscalService Fiscal Data’s new guide to America’s finances! #FiscalData

fiscaldata.treasury.gov

Total debt is 37.3 trillion. We'll be over 40 before Trump leaves.

We are selling our kids down the river.

• HikerGuy83
• Replies: 400
• Forum: Politics

• 
• 
• 

This has gotten way out of hand and we need to start kicking congress in the nuts to fix this and cut of their nuts off if they don't.

October prelim data to follow:

 

[HikerGuy83]

Preliminary October 2025 numbers.

Investing.com -- The U.S. federal government recorded a deficit of $219 billion in October 2025, representing a $39 billion reduction from the shortfall recorded in the same month last year, according to Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates.

The improved deficit position resulted from revenue growth outpacing spending increases. Federal revenues reached $75 billion above October 2024 levels, primarily driven by higher collections of individual income and payroll taxes, along with increased customs duties.

While federal outlays increased by $37 billion compared to last October, the timing of certain payments affected this figure. Some payments that would normally occur on November 1 were shifted to October because November 1 fell on a Saturday. Without these timing shifts, outlays would have actually decreased by $70 billion compared to last year, and the deficit reduction would have been $145 billion rather than $39 billion.

*******************

Now that second bolded section is interesting and we should keep that in mind.

This is just one month.

Annualizing this means little since there are some months where things are wildly different due to specfic circumstances.

 

[White 6]

This thread will be used to report on a running (monthly if we can get it) basis....the deficit.

At the end of fiscal 2025, the deficit was revised down by 200 billion and some of that was attributed to the tariff revenue. I added that to my thread on the 2025 deficit.

This will be for something different.

As I said in my thread:

Thread '2025 Deficit comes in at 1.97 Trillion. This Is Way Out of Hand'

Oct 13, 2025

Well.....this is great news.

The 2025 deficit was 1.97 trillion. Total revenue was 4.69 trillion which means our deficit was 42% of total revenue and 29.5% of total spending.

I don't have an actual figure, but you can count on 1 trillion of spending on debt servicing alone. 1 FREAKING TRILLION.

In 2024 the deficit was 1.83 trillion.

AND NOBODY CARES (in government).

This is beyond reprehensible.

Your Guide to America’s Finances

Check out @FiscalService Fiscal Data’s new guide to America’s finances! #FiscalData

fiscaldata.treasury.gov

Total debt is 37.3 trillion. We'll be over 40 before Trump leaves.

We are selling our kids down the river.

• HikerGuy83
• Replies: 400
• Forum: Politics

• 
• 
• 

This has gotten way out of hand and we need to start kicking congress in the nuts to fix this and cut of their nuts off if they don't.

October prelim data to follow:

He's just a tariff and spend kind of guy, but at least he is preserving the tax breaks for the wealthy, whom we all worry about how they are going to make it, daily.

 

[Samofvt]

This thread will be used to report on a running (monthly if we can get it) basis....the deficit.

At the end of fiscal 2025, the deficit was revised down by 200 billion and some of that was attributed to the tariff revenue. I added that to my thread on the 2025 deficit.

This will be for something different.

As I said in my thread:

Thread '2025 Deficit comes in at 1.97 Trillion. This Is Way Out of Hand'

Oct 13, 2025

Well.....this is great news.

The 2025 deficit was 1.97 trillion. Total revenue was 4.69 trillion which means our deficit was 42% of total revenue and 29.5% of total spending.

I don't have an actual figure, but you can count on 1 trillion of spending on debt servicing alone. 1 FREAKING TRILLION.

In 2024 the deficit was 1.83 trillion.

AND NOBODY CARES (in government).

This is beyond reprehensible.

Your Guide to America’s Finances

Check out @FiscalService Fiscal Data’s new guide to America’s finances! #FiscalData

fiscaldata.treasury.gov

Total debt is 37.3 trillion. We'll be over 40 before Trump leaves.

We are selling our kids down the river.

• HikerGuy83
• Replies: 400
• Forum: Politics

• 
• 
• 

This has gotten way out of hand and we need to start kicking congress in the nuts to fix this and cut of their nuts off if they don't.

October prelim data to follow:

We need a balanced budget amendment, like Convention of States Action

I usually go to https://usdebtclock.org/ when I need something to get angry about.

 

[HikerGuy83]

He's just a tariff and spend kind of guy, but at least he is preserving the tax breaks for the wealthy, whom we all worry about how they are going to make it, daily.

Yeah....

Any comment on the deficit?

That is what this thread is about.

If you need the "I need a tissue 'cause Trump hurts my feelings" thread, go somewhere else and spare us the whine.

 

[White 6]

Yeah....

Any comment on the deficit?

That is what this thread is about.

If you need the "I need a tissue 'cause Trump hurts my feelings" thread, go somewhere else and spare us the whine.

Going up, up, up, just like last time he was in office. His tariff US tax plan is said to be generating trillions on the backs of US consumers, the ones footing the bill.

 

[leftwinger]

He's just a tariff and spend kind of guy, but at least he is preserving the tax breaks for the wealthy, whom we all worry about how they are going to make it, daily.

Trump is not the legislative branch. They set the upper rate at ~38% in 17' to offset the new SALT deduction cap. See Congress for your help.

Tariffs have a purpose. One-way Tariffs are not good for USA MFGs'

Hope that helps heal your rabid TDS.//

 

[Captain Caveman]

This thread will be used to report on a running (monthly if we can get it) basis....the deficit.

At the end of fiscal 2025, the deficit was revised down by 200 billion and some of that was attributed to the tariff revenue. I added that to my thread on the 2025 deficit.

This will be for something different.

As I said in my thread:

Thread '2025 Deficit comes in at 1.97 Trillion. This Is Way Out of Hand'

Oct 13, 2025

Well.....this is great news.

The 2025 deficit was 1.97 trillion. Total revenue was 4.69 trillion which means our deficit was 42% of total revenue and 29.5% of total spending.

I don't have an actual figure, but you can count on 1 trillion of spending on debt servicing alone. 1 FREAKING TRILLION.

In 2024 the deficit was 1.83 trillion.

AND NOBODY CARES (in government).

This is beyond reprehensible.

Your Guide to America’s Finances

Check out @FiscalService Fiscal Data’s new guide to America’s finances! #FiscalData

fiscaldata.treasury.gov

Total debt is 37.3 trillion. We'll be over 40 before Trump leaves.

We are selling our kids down the river.

• HikerGuy83
• Replies: 400
• Forum: Politics

• 
• 
• 

This has gotten way out of hand and we need to start kicking congress in the nuts to fix this and cut of their nuts off if they don't.

October prelim data to follow:

Unfortunately, there's no one in the US that has the ability and skills to get a grip on the deficit, and thus, the national debt. America is fucked, I kid you not.

 

[White 6]

Trump is not the legislative branch. They set the upper rate at ~38% in 17' to offset the new SALT deduction cap. See Congress for your help.

Tariffs have a purpose. One-way Tariffs are not good for USA MFGs'

Hope that helps heal your rabid TDS.//

Republican useless Congress is in his pocket, doing what they are told by him, afraid he will have them primaried, like all he had primaried and ridiculed before.

 

[HikerGuy83]

Going up, up, up, just like last time he was in office. His tariff US tax plan is said to be generating trillions on the backs of US consumers, the ones footing the bill.

Actually, it was lower the last fiscal than Biden's most recent thus breaking a streak of increases.

Attributed to, in large part......the tariffs.

 

[Samofvt]

Going up, up, up, just like last time he was in office. His tariff US tax plan is said to be generating trillions on the backs of US consumers, the ones footing the bill.

False. The deficit went down during Trump's first administration, up until the pandemic scare. It would have been a wash until Biden's second multi-trillion dollar give-away, ill advised, and signed into law within his first few weeks of office. It benefited the insurance companies more than anyone.

 

[White 6]

False. The deficit went down during Trump's first administration, up until the pandemic scare. It would have been a wash until Biden's second multi-trillion dollar give-away, ill advised, and signed into law within his first few weeks of office. It benefited the insurance companies more than anyone.

Trump gave away the first $2.1 trillion, followed by Biden's $1.9 Trillion. Everybody likes free money, until they have to pay for it with inflation, as it percolates back to the top.

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

Republican useless Congress is in his pocket, doing what they are told by him, afraid he will have them primaried, like all he had primaried and ridiculed before.

Yep. He had Bob Good, leader of the Freedom Caucus, successfully primaried because he actually stood up against Trump's spending and Constitutional violations. He's been trying to get rid of Massie for the same reasons, but so far has failed.

 

[ReinyDays]

Just "print" more money ... worked for 1925 Germany ...

Yeah, that's a coil postage stamp, used to pay bills ...

 

[HikerGuy83]

Just "print" more money ... worked for 1925 Germany ...

Don't know if you are aware of it, but that is exactly Bernie Sanders approach.

It falls under what is called Modern Monetary Policy. Which is insane.

 

[HikerGuy83]

O.K.

With the holidays, I got a little behind.

I found the following with regards to the November deficit.:

The federal budget deficit totaled $439 billion in October and November 2025, the first two months of fiscal year 2026, the Congressional Budget Office estimates. That amount is $185 billion less than the deficit recorded during the same period last fiscal year. Outlays were $73 billion (or 6 percent) lower, and revenues were $112 billion (or 18 percent) higher.

Outlays in November 2024 were boosted by the shifts to that month of certain payments that were due on December 1, 2024, a Saturday. If not for those shifts, the deficit thus far in fiscal year 2026 would have been $103 billion less than the shortfall at this point last year, and outlays would have been $9 billion more.

https://www.cbo.gov/publication/61308

The federal government’s cumulative deficit for fiscal year 2026 was $439 billion at the end of November—19% lower than the same time last year after adjusting for timing effects. Revenues increased by 18%, and outlays increased by 1% from fiscal year 2025.

Strong revenue growth so far this year has been driven both by higher tariff rates than were in effect during the same period last fiscal year and robust individual income tax collections on higher wages. Spending patterns so far have been driven by reduced disaster spending (partly due to the October-November shutdown) and lower spending levels at the Environmental Protection Agency and Department of Education. This was offset by mandatory spending, which continued to grow, as did interest costs on the national debt.

https://bipartisanpolicy.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/Budget-Deficit.jpg

Even as the U.S. economy expands, the federal government continues to run large and growing budget deficits that will soon exceed $1 trillion per year.

bipartisanpolicy.org

It gets a little frustrating because you don't see the same numbers everywhere.

But things look fairly consistent.

Now, if we annualized this, it would be insanely high reaching to over 2.5 trillion. It appears that these months are, historically, some of the worst. We are tracking below fiscal 2025 and it appears that some of that is due to the tarriffs. People can say...well, it's the American People.

News Flash: They are going to pay one way or the other. We need this sucker at 0.00.

 

[HikerGuy83]

Going up, up, up, just like last time he was in office. His tariff US tax plan is said to be generating trillions on the backs of US consumers, the ones footing the bill.

2nd month in a row (out of two), for Fiscal 2026 where the deficit registers lower. The government can cook the books too, so I am not crowing to loud.

But I did start this thread to track it month to month.

 

[ReinyDays]

2nd month in a row (out of two), for Fiscal 2026 where the deficit registers lower. The government can cook the books too, so I am not crowing to loud.

But I did start this thread to track it month to month.

But if the government cooks the books the same way ... wouldn't these comparisons be valid? ...

A CPA friend of mine claims there's no books to cook ... what little bookkeeping that does exist can't be meshed together ... no accounting, no balancing, no auditing ... just crazy spending on crazy spending ... pork barrel CR after pork barrel CR ...

Hillary made budget in 2000 ... been nothing but tax breaks for the Rich ever since ... well done Congress, well done indeed ...

 

[Hafar1014]

He's just a tariff and spend kind of guy, but at least he is preserving the tax breaks for the wealthy, whom we all worry about how they are going to make it, daily.

The middle class got the biggest tax cut in history

 

[ReinyDays]

The middle class got the biggest tax cut in history

Does that pay off the deficit? ...