Ipsos-Reuters poll just out. Hillary polls ahead of all the GOP candidates by double digits.
http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=14724
Clinton 41% Bush 29%
Clinton 44% Walker 24%
Clinton 42% Christie 25%
Clinton 44% Carson 24%
Clinton 41% Cruz 27%
Clinton 41% Rubio 28%
Clinton 43% Trump 29%
The real devil is in the details and this is a point I am hammering home every time the data shows it:
The question asks the poll respondents how their view of candidates has changed based on the debate from 5 days ago. The question is then broken down by D,R and I.
Forget the "No - has not changed my view" because, since we have no idea how many out of that percentage already had a positive or negative view of a candidate, registering no change in this poll tells us little. But those who recorded either a more positive view or a more negative view - now that is data worth looking at.
Look at Rand Paul.
Among all voters in the poll, 9% now have a more positive view of him, while 19% have a more negative view of him. That's a 10 point deficit, not something that a candidate wants to get from a debate. Now, people could say, "yeah, but the Democrats are generating that statistic". Ok, let's see about that.
Rand Paul:
among Democrats: 9 yes, 16 no, = -7. His deficit among Democrats is SMALLER than among all voters in this poll.
among Republicans: 8 yes, 22 no, = -14. Paul tanked among Republicans.
among Independents: 14 yes, 25 no, = -11, one point larger in definite than the poll overall.
So, actually, Democratic input kept his deficit from getting any larger, which also backs the theory that some of his views actually do resonate with some Democrats, which also explains why Rand Paul often comes closer to Hillary Clinton in matchups than Bush, Walker or Trump.
Now, to Trump:
all voters: 21 yes / 31 no, = -10 (deficit of 10 points)
among Democrats: 17 yes / 35 no, = -18
among Republicans: 30 yes / 28 no, =
+2
among Independents: 15 yes / 37 no, =
-22
And those are the numbers that really tell us something. Roughly 30% of Republicans are choosing Trump to be their nominee in matchups. And 30% of Republicans in this poll now have a more favorable opinion of him based on his behavior in the debate. I think it's pretty fair to say that that's a common intersection between those who selected him in the primary polling (Trump 21, Bush 11, Rubio 6 and so on, in this poll) and those who like what they heard. 28% of Republicans now view him less favorably. This doesn't mean they won't vote for him, but it means they may wobble. Among Democrats, who do not like Trump, the -18 (deficit) is not surprise. A Republican nominee is probably going to get 7-9% of the Democratic vote in a GE and that's that, anyway.
But it's the INDEPENDENT number that is killing Trump. With a whopping -22 (deficit) and the highest negative number in this category (37), Indies did not like what they heard, and a nominee must win the Indies in order to win the election.
I have been making this point over and over and over again about Trump.
He is winning in GOP polling, but is getting creamed in GE matchups, in large part to the fact that he is tanking terribly among Independents.
Among Independents, Trump is trailing by 13 points, Cruz is trailing by 15 points, Carson is trailing by 27 points, Walker by 26 points.
With Bush, Walker and Christie and Carson, we see a traditional electorate figure forming, with each side getting 6-9% of the opposing party's vote. With Cruz, Rubio and Trump, the number is 10-11%, but among the own party, Clinton is doing better with the D's and the Rs are doing with the R's. There are lots of "neither/or", "wouldn't vote" and "DN/refused" - this is normal for this far out from an election. It's the margins that count.
This is just one poll, but I am seeing these kinds of internals all over the place.
The GOP is losing because it is getting crushed in the I-vote.
