2016 Arctic sea ice thread

[IanC]

hey Crick.....do you ever have any ideas? you are the most boring and predictable parrot on this board, perhaps with the exception of Old Rocks.

jc just puts together random words and by chance occasionally says something interesting and thought provoking. but you...not so much.

Then why do you bother talking to me?

Because you are not obnoxious enough to put on ignore.

SSDD is obnoxious enough but he makes me think on a fairly regular basis.

I do ignore Old Rocks but only on an informal basis.

I don't suppose you can help being boring or dishonest, it's simply your character.

 

[Old Rocks]

Of course you ignore me, Ian. I post real articles from scientists, not frauds on WUWT. So you must ignore me, otherwise you have to acknowledge that the scientists are showing reality.

 

[jc456]

Of course you ignore me, Ian. I post real articles from scientists, not frauds on WUWT. So you must ignore me, otherwise you have to acknowledge that the scientists are showing reality.

who are your real scientists, I'm still waiting on that.

 

[Old Rocks]

Of course you ignore me, Ian. I post real articles from scientists, not frauds on WUWT. So you must ignore me, otherwise you have to acknowledge that the scientists are showing reality.

who are your real scientists, I'm still waiting on that.

You might find them by looking at the references in Google Scholar. But they do use words of more than two syllables so you might have a problem.

 

[jc456]

Of course you ignore me, Ian. I post real articles from scientists, not frauds on WUWT. So you must ignore me, otherwise you have to acknowledge that the scientists are showing reality.

who are your real scientists, I'm still waiting on that.

You might find them by looking at the references in Google Scholar. But they do use words of more than two syllables so you might have a problem.

so you can't. thanks.

 

[Old Rocks]

The growth of Arctic sea ice extent this month is the lowest on record. (JAXA,

The growth of Arctic sea ice extent during October has been the slowest on record. (JAXA, adapted by Zachary Labe)

Sea ice extent in the Arctic is as low as it has ever been measured in late October, and air temperatures are at a record warm. Sea ice experts say it is difficult to project what the current ice depletion means for the next year, but the unmistakable long-term trend toward less ice is troubling.

“The overall trajectory is clear — sometime in the next few decades, maybe as early as 2030, we’ll wake up to a September with no Arctic sea ice,” said Mark Serreze, director of the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), in Boulder, Colo.
................................................
Zachary Labe, a PhD student at the University of California at Irvine who is studying Arctic sea ice and extreme weather, tweeted that air temperatures over parts of the Arctic have been more than 18 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than normal.

Arctic sea ice is at a record low and could, in spurts, disappear within our lifetimes

Looks like the decline of the Artic Sea Ice continues as predicted.

 

[jc456]

The growth of Arctic sea ice extent this month is the lowest on record. (JAXA,

The growth of Arctic sea ice extent during October has been the slowest on record. (JAXA, adapted by Zachary Labe)

Sea ice extent in the Arctic is as low as it has ever been measured in late October, and air temperatures are at a record warm. Sea ice experts say it is difficult to project what the current ice depletion means for the next year, but the unmistakable long-term trend toward less ice is troubling.

“The overall trajectory is clear — sometime in the next few decades, maybe as early as 2030, we’ll wake up to a September with no Arctic sea ice,” said Mark Serreze, director of the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), in Boulder, Colo.
................................................
Zachary Labe, a PhD student at the University of California at Irvine who is studying Arctic sea ice and extreme weather, tweeted that air temperatures over parts of the Arctic have been more than 18 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than normal.

Arctic sea ice is at a record low and could, in spurts, disappear within our lifetimes

Looks like the decline of the Artic Sea Ice continues as predicted.

wash, rinse, repeat.

 

[IanC]

Here is the graph for Arctic temperature this year. I cannot vouch for its accuracy but it is what we have to work with. I cannot vouch for the accuracy of the green average line, which is certainly comprised of different data types than this year's. So be it.

What I want to point out is the small portion of the year that is actually above the freezing line. Ice does melt in summer so it is not unimaginable that the Arctic could be ice free in September, as it has been in the past.

What I really want to point out is the insane alarmism that crick, Rocks, etc show when they put up graphs that predict ice free conditions even in winter.

This type of graph is totally at odds with reality. The Arctic in winter is cold and dark. No possibility of being ice free.

So what is the point of this graph except to scare the sheeple? I don't know if this rises to the heights of shouting 'FIRE' in a crowded theatre but it is similar.

If the alarmists's side is willing to distort obviously unrealistic data here, what other misdirections are they willing to approve elsewhere that are not so easily proven to be ridiculous?

 

[Old Rocks]

When will the summer Arctic be nearly sea ice free? - Overland - 2013 - Geophysical Research Letters - Wiley Online Library

• Open Access

Regular Article
When will the summer Arctic be nearly sea ice free?
Authors

• Corresponding author
  1. Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, NOAA, Seattle, Washington, USA
  • Corresponding author: J. E. Overland, NOAA/PMEL, 7600 Sand Point Way NE, Seattle, WA 98115, USA. (Search for more papers by this author
  • 1. University Washington/JISAO, Seattle, Washington, USA
    Search for more papers by this author
  • First published: 21 May 2013Full publication history
  • DOI: 10.1002/grl.50316View/save citation

[1] The observed rapid loss of thick multiyear sea ice over the last 7 years and the September 2012 Arctic sea ice extent reduction of 49% relative to the 1979–2000 climatology are inconsistent with projections of a nearly sea ice-free summer Arctic from model estimates of 2070 and beyond made just a few years ago. Three recent approaches to predictions in the scientific literature are as follows: (1) extrapolation of sea ice volume data, (2) assuming several more rapid loss events such as 2007 and 2012, and (3) climate model projections. Time horizons for a nearly sea ice-free summer for these three approaches are roughly 2020 or earlier, 2030 ± 10 years, and 2040 or later. Loss estimates from models are based on a subset of the most rapid ensemble members. It is not possible to clearly choose one approach over another as this depends on the relative weights given to data versus models. Observations and citations support the conclusion that most global climate model results in the CMIP5 archive are too conservative in their sea ice projections. Recent data and expert opinion should be considered in addition to model results to advance the very likely timing for future sea ice loss to the first half of the 21st century, with a possibility of major loss within a decade or two.

These authors put the loss of summer ice between 2020 and 2050.

 

[Old Rocks]

Arctic Sea Ice News and Analysis | Sea ice data updated daily with one-day lag

Both the Arctic and Antarctic sea ice are below two deviations from the past years. The Arctic Sea ice, significantly so.

 

[Old Rocks]

Of course you ignore me, Ian. I post real articles from scientists, not frauds on WUWT. So you must ignore me, otherwise you have to acknowledge that the scientists are showing reality.

who are your real scientists, I'm still waiting on that.

LOL jc, you are so stupid that you are funny.

Toward a seasonally ice-covered Arctic Ocean: Scenarios from the IPCC AR4 model simulations
X Zhang, JE Walsh - Journal of Climate, 2006 - journals.ametsoc.org

Future Arctic Ocean seasonal ice zones and implications for pelagic-benthic coupling
P Wassmann, M Reigstad - 2011 - munin.uit.no

HTML]

[/B] [URL='http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2012GL052676/full']Trends in [B]Arctic [/B]sea [B]ice [/B]extent from CMIP5, CMIP3 and observations[/URL]
JC Stroeve, V Kattsov, [URL='https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=smnZr1wAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=sra'][U]A Barrett[/U][/URL]… - Geophysical …, 2012 - Wiley Online Library

[B]HTML][HTML][/B] [URL='http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/grl.50316/full']When [B]will [/B]the summer [B]Arctic [/B]be nearly sea [B]ice free[/B]?[/URL]
JE Overland, M Wang - Geophysical Research Letters, 2013 - Wiley Online Library

[SIZE=4][B][URL='http://science.sciencemag.org/content/329/5991/556.short']Decrease in the CO2 uptake capacity in an [B]ice[/B]-[B]free Arctic Ocean [/B]basin[/URL][/B][/SIZE]
[URL='https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=7i0r93YAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=sra'][U]WJ Cai[/U][/URL], L Chen, [URL='https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=obx66XgAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=sra'][U]B Chen[/U][/URL], Z Gao, SH Lee, J Chen… - …, 2010 - science.sciencemag.org

[SIZE=4][B][URL='http://science.sciencemag.org/content/326/5956/1098.short']Aragonite undersaturation in the [B]Arctic Ocean[/B]: effects of [B]ocean [/B]acidification and sea [B]ice [/B]melt[/URL][/B][/SIZE]
M Yamamoto-Kawai, FA McLaughlin… - …, 2009 - science.sciencemag.org

[B]Many, many more authors and articles on just this one topic. jc, you really are a moron.[/B]

 

[jc456]

Of course you ignore me, Ian. I post real articles from scientists, not frauds on WUWT. So you must ignore me, otherwise you have to acknowledge that the scientists are showing reality.

who are your real scientists, I'm still waiting on that.

LOL jc, you are so stupid that you are funny.

Toward a seasonally ice-covered Arctic Ocean: Scenarios from the IPCC AR4 model simulations
X Zhang, JE Walsh - Journal of Climate, 2006 - journals.ametsoc.org

Future Arctic Ocean seasonal ice zones and implications for pelagic-benthic coupling
P Wassmann, M Reigstad - 2011 - munin.uit.no

HTML]

[/B] [URL='http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2012GL052676/full']Trends in [B]Arctic [/B]sea [B]ice [/B]extent from CMIP5, CMIP3 and observations[/URL]
JC Stroeve, V Kattsov, [URL='https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=smnZr1wAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=sra'][U]A Barrett[/U][/URL]… - Geophysical …, 2012 - Wiley Online Library

[B]HTML][HTML][/B] [URL='http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/grl.50316/full']When [B]will [/B]the summer [B]Arctic [/B]be nearly sea [B]ice free[/B]?[/URL]
JE Overland, M Wang - Geophysical Research Letters, 2013 - Wiley Online Library

[SIZE=4][B][URL='http://science.sciencemag.org/content/329/5991/556.short']Decrease in the CO2 uptake capacity in an [B]ice[/B]-[B]free Arctic Ocean [/B]basin[/URL][/B][/SIZE]
[URL='https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=7i0r93YAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=sra'][U]WJ Cai[/U][/URL], L Chen, [URL='https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=obx66XgAAAAJ&hl=en&oi=sra'][U]B Chen[/U][/URL], Z Gao, SH Lee, J Chen… - …, 2010 - science.sciencemag.org

[SIZE=4][B][URL='http://science.sciencemag.org/content/326/5956/1098.short']Aragonite undersaturation in the [B]Arctic Ocean[/B]: effects of [B]ocean [/B]acidification and sea [B]ice [/B]melt[/URL][/B][/SIZE]
M Yamamoto-Kawai, FA McLaughlin… - …, 2009 - science.sciencemag.org

[B]Many, many more authors and articles on just this one topic. jc, you really are a moron.[/B]

So your real scientists are wrong! Arctic Ice is normal

 

[Old Rocks]

Arctic Sea Ice News and Analysis | Sea ice data updated daily with one-day lag
The ice in the Arctic Ocean is well over two standard deviations below normal, the sea ice in the Antarctic is at two standard deviations below normal. That reality does not fit your alternative universe makes no difference at all to reality. And you did ask who those scientists were.

 

[Old Rocks]

Arctic Sea Ice News and Analysis | Sea ice data updated daily with one-day lag

The Arctic Ice is way below where it should be this time of year. Warmer ocean and atmosphere setting us up for a record low year in 2017.