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2012 Election: By the Numbers

Wroberson

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First off, I'm sorry. We're all tired of the polling roller coaster. That's why I did the math.

I am proud of this poll I took using the most recent information I could find. I used voter census numbers, early voter numbers and the latest poll. It's non-bais. I did not alter any of the polling information to get the results. My earlier one was the vote and poll broken down by race and it turned out a bigger advantage. I didn't like it so much, but I still have a copy. That one started Obama off with 37 million minority votes and then divided the white votes based on the sex polling where 50.5% of white women favored Obama and 42.5% of white men favored Obama. It resulted in a landslide for the President.

This new new poll skips the minority and the white men and women and stick with just the most recent polling numbers.

----------------------------------------

Early Voting heavily favors Obama 10-22-2012: 59% to 31%. Though dated the 22nd, this was on the eve of the last debacle between the two guys. THIS NUMBER CAN'T BE CHANGED until a new early voter exit poll is published. 35% of all voters have voted. Early voting is at a blistering record pace.

Total Voters 131,144,000
35% of total 45,900,400
59% of early votes 27,081,236
31% of early votes 14,229,124

Recent poll:

Total remaining voters: 85,243,600
Romney 50% votes 42,621,800
Obama 47% votes 40,064,492

Let's add it up:
Romney 42,621,800+14,229,124= 56,850,924
Obama 40,064,492+27,081,236= 67,145,728
Uncounted votes 10% of Early voted 4,590,040
3% of latest poll numbers 2,557,308

Even if you give Romney all the 10% uncounted early votes from exit polling and the 3% margin from the latest poll the totals are:

Obama 67,145,728
Romney 63,998,272

Even if you say, more or less than 131,144,000 people will vote, Obama is ahead. This number will not change the reported percentages.
 

Sarg

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Is this sarcasm? It seems like an awful lot of work to be a joke, though you did miss 10% of the vote when fabricating your early voting numbers. 59 + 31 = 90.
 
OP
Wroberson

Wroberson

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I gave Romney that 10% and the 3% margin of error.
It's not a joke. It's not sarcastic. It's not even set in stone.
Huff Post has early voting exit polls. Florida and North Carolina to Romney.

Here's my racist election results.


Black Voters: 95% Obama Total Votes: 16,447,717
Hispanic Voter: 75% Obama Total Votes: 20,593,710
White Women Total Voters: 47,051,287
White Men Total Voters: 44,051,287
White Women 50.5% Obama: 23,996,156
White Men 42.5 Obama: 22,906,669

Total Voters: 13,1144,000
Total Votes for President Obama: 83,944,252
Total Votes for Governor Romney: 47,199,718

The results are due to the 37 million other than white votes for Governor Romney. The percentages were taken from Census information and the latest polls of how the different groups would vote.

This is the National vote and does not break down swing states by race or sex.

Look at it however you want. White men not voting, White people under populated.

We are about to be lied to, BIG TIME!
 

asterism

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First off, I'm sorry. We're all tired of the polling roller coaster. That's why I did the math.

I am proud of this poll I took using the most recent information I could find. I used voter census numbers, early voter numbers and the latest poll. It's non-bais. I did not alter any of the polling information to get the results. My earlier one was the vote and poll broken down by race and it turned out a bigger advantage. I didn't like it so much, but I still have a copy. That one started Obama off with 37 million minority votes and then divided the white votes based on the sex polling where 50.5% of white women favored Obama and 42.5% of white men favored Obama. It resulted in a landslide for the President.

This new new poll skips the minority and the white men and women and stick with just the most recent polling numbers.

----------------------------------------

Early Voting heavily favors Obama 10-22-2012: 59% to 31%. Though dated the 22nd, this was on the eve of the last debacle between the two guys. THIS NUMBER CAN'T BE CHANGED until a new early voter exit poll is published. 35% of all voters have voted. Early voting is at a blistering record pace.

Total Voters 131,144,000
35% of total 45,900,400
59% of early votes 27,081,236
31% of early votes 14,229,124

Recent poll:

Total remaining voters: 85,243,600
Romney 50% votes 42,621,800
Obama 47% votes 40,064,492

Let's add it up:
Romney 42,621,800+14,229,124= 56,850,924
Obama 40,064,492+27,081,236= 67,145,728
Uncounted votes 10% of Early voted 4,590,040
3% of latest poll numbers 2,557,308

Even if you give Romney all the 10% uncounted early votes from exit polling and the 3% margin from the latest poll the totals are:

Obama 67,145,728
Romney 63,998,272

Even if you say, more or less than 131,144,000 people will vote, Obama is ahead. This number will not change the reported percentages.

Exit polls aren't known to be very accurate and there aren't enough of them on early votes to extrapolate nationwide.

Go take a statistics course sometime.
 
OP
Wroberson

Wroberson

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Thanks. I'll take that to heart. The 10% is now to be splat 50% 47%.
Every state has an exit poll accurate or not. 35% will have voted early.
Republicans by mail, democrats in person. Yep. I looked that one up too.
 

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