2000 Banks to fail in the next year.

[Neubarth]

I have traveled the country and in all regions have noted the horrible mess the country is in. I have talked to assembled people and looked at all the financial problem that exist all across this country. New England with its core culture of frugality and circumspection appears to be the best off of the regions of this country. I am proud of those people as there is a positive attitude and strong morality in that land.

The rest of the country appears to be in serious trouble. Real Estate is still collapsing in value. Commercial Real Estate investment is seeing the most damage from the Southeast to the West Coast. From Coast to Coast the banks in these areas were heavily invested in the commercial building boom that we had in the late 90's to the 2007 time period. The banks holding those loans are going to have to declare bankruptcy. It is either that or the Federal Government is going to have to come up with a Trillion dollars to help them weather the economic storm that is coming.

I don't have hard numbers, but this much I can assure you, there are empty building all over the country, and they are not generating revenue but are still generating increasing expenses as they sit idle. We should see all hell start to break lose in the coming weeks. The small banks just can't hold on any longer. They can deed their interest in the properties over to the city and county governments in lieu of back taxes, but then the city and county governments do not want the properties because they are just a money drain on already financially strapped government.

What is the solution?

 

[California Girl]

Stop pissing on Obama's parade. You bad!

 

[Toro]

The solution is to let the banks go under.

During the S&L crisis, 1600 banks and thrifts failed. I don't know if we'll get to 2000. Maybe we will, but it wouldn't be unprecedented in modern times.

 

[Neubarth]

Ugh!

 

[Toro]

I just re-read the title of this thread.

It is highly unlikely that 2000 banks will fail in 2010. Only ~150 have failed thus far. But 2000 banks might fail during the entire duration of this crisis, though I don't think it will be that high.

 

[editec]

I have traveled the country and in all regions have noted the horrible mess the country is in. I have talked to assembled people and looked at all the financial problem that exist all across this country. New England with its core culture of frugality and circumspection appears to be the best off of the regions of this country. I am proud of those people as there is a positive attitude and strong morality in that land.

The rest of the country appears to be in serious trouble. Real Estate is still collapsing in value. Commercial Real Estate investment is seeing the most damage from the Southeast to the West Coast. From Coast to Coast the banks in these areas were heavily invested in the commercial building boom that we had in the late 90's to the 2007 time period. The banks holding those loans are going to have to declare bankruptcy. It is either that or the Federal Government is going to have to come up with a Trillion dollars to help them weather the economic storm that is coming.

I don't have hard numbers, but this much I can assure you, there are empty building all over the country, and they are not generating revenue but are still generating increasing expenses as they sit idle. We should see all hell start to break lose in the coming weeks. The small banks just can't hold on any longer. They can deed their interest in the properties over to the city and county governments in lieu of back taxes, but then the city and county governments do not want the properties because they are just a money drain on already financially strapped government.

What is the solution?

Eat the rich.

 

[Neubarth]

I just re-read the title of this thread.

It is highly unlikely that 2000 banks will fail in 2010. Only ~150 have failed thus far. But 2000 banks might fail during the entire duration of this crisis, though I don't think it will be that high.

I could have titled it "The banks that have already failed and the banks that I project to fail should add up to close to 2000 by the end of 2010!!!"

I gave it about seven or eight seconds thought and then realized, if I just admitted that it was an estimate and that I had no "hard numbers" that most people would automatically realize that the title was intended to be a rough estimate.

Having said that, I thank you for being so astute enough to realize that 2000 bank failures in 12 months would be extreme. These are extreme times but even I would not expect to see 2000 in 12 or 13 months, but we damn well will see a colossal mess if the present administration does not soon put aside a Trillion Dollars to deal with the ongoing Real Estate crisis. Exactly how they do it is up to them to decide, but one thing would be to convert a lot of the buildings into temporary dwelling halls for the millions of homeless we now have in this country.

Together, my wife and I raised over thirty children. Three of them are presently back at home. That is a ten percent homeless rate for our kids. My guess is that more than ten percent will be needing parental support or government support to put their kids back in a reasonably safe living environment.

The real estate collapse is about half done. Now comes the massive casualty period when the financial institutions fall like leaves.

 

[ScottBernard]

I agree that the real estate bloodbath is not over yet. The foolish have paid the price; but now, with the stagnation of the economy and job losses, people with sensible mortgages are going to look down the barrel.
Commercial real estate has always been a gamble. I see so many 'For Lease' signs around it's not even funny.
I think there is a sense that the "psychology" of the market can be girded if only Congress could pass some laws, with retroactive power, to go after all those who perpetrated this. Grab them by the back of the collar and haul them off for a whipping. Even if that means going after their own. Unfortunately, that is just a fantasy.
In a way, the smaller banks have an opportunity here if they are healthy. Advertise the fact, and pronounce your stability and strength.

Neubarth, traditional New Englanders aren't impressed by much. Except that is hard work and effortless competence at whatever it is that you do. There isn't much flash to Old Yankee values. It's almost Quaker.

 

[California Girl]

I have traveled the country and in all regions have noted the horrible mess the country is in. I have talked to assembled people and looked at all the financial problem that exist all across this country. New England with its core culture of frugality and circumspection appears to be the best off of the regions of this country. I am proud of those people as there is a positive attitude and strong morality in that land.

The rest of the country appears to be in serious trouble. Real Estate is still collapsing in value. Commercial Real Estate investment is seeing the most damage from the Southeast to the West Coast. From Coast to Coast the banks in these areas were heavily invested in the commercial building boom that we had in the late 90's to the 2007 time period. The banks holding those loans are going to have to declare bankruptcy. It is either that or the Federal Government is going to have to come up with a Trillion dollars to help them weather the economic storm that is coming.

I don't have hard numbers, but this much I can assure you, there are empty building all over the country, and they are not generating revenue but are still generating increasing expenses as they sit idle. We should see all hell start to break lose in the coming weeks. The small banks just can't hold on any longer. They can deed their interest in the properties over to the city and county governments in lieu of back taxes, but then the city and county governments do not want the properties because they are just a money drain on already financially strapped government.

What is the solution?

Eat the rich.

That makes no sense, the rich are few in number and add value to the economy. Make poverty history - eat poor people.