They're not. You don't get 50 different results with 50 different polls. The idea isn't to get a result from a poll, the idea is to get an idea of what some people in the country think about this or that. Then you go off and look at another poll, and another. When you ask people today, what the most important issue is to them, and 20 of them answer with 10 different things, then ok you have a point. When 20 of them answer with the same answer, you're getting somewhere. I like polls that show a large number of likely voters over a 3-day period. That's why I like Rasmussen, which has been an in-betweener. It hasn't shown Obama up by double digits and it hasn't shown Obama in the low single digits.
I still can't get that Pew research poll out of my head. 2300 likely voters is a good sample size. It was done over a 3-day period and Pew is very well respected. To show Obama on October 16th, up by 14 points is very interesting. It sticks out at me as something to pay attention to. I've read their data and it's consistent with all of the other polls.
In contrast, the AP Poll recently conducted, had a tiny sample size, only 800 likely voters and they completely underestimated the youth turnout. It also showed almost no independents, which was very concerning. TIPP also does a very small sample size. I have not looked at their data, yet. I should. It's interesting how the difference between TIPP and Zogby is about 300 likely voters, yet their results are different by 5 points. I don't like Zogby since their 2004 disaster. They're interesting and I put them in the back of my mind.
If a poll, with a 3-day rolling average, with 2000-3000 likely voters that counts Republicans, Democrats and Independents about equally, showed me a race tightening, well then it's time to get a little concerned. I don't think Obama is going to win North Carolina, Nevada New Hampshire, Colorado, Indiana, Florida or Missouri. I do think Obama will win Pennsylvania, Virginia, New Mexico and Ohio. I think the race will be much tighter than anyone thinks right now. About 4 or 5 points.
I think McCain could declare that no one pays income tax and that Sarah Palin will do playboy, and Obama would still win. People are very excited about Obama. People are somewhat excited about Palin. I do not think Palin has a future outside of Governer of Alaska, though. I think the Democrats are already looking at 2010 in Alaska and if they defeat her in Alaska, they'll destroy her future political career and stave off any potential contenders for 2012. Romney vs. Obama is how I see 2012 and that won't even be close. But what's interesting... what's very interesting is by that time, Joe Biden will be 73 years old and that's too old to run, I think. I think 2016 we could be looking at 2008 all over again, with no incumbents. Unless something happens between now and then and Obama replaces Biden with a new VP.
I think, as long as the Democrats create jobs and get this economy in order, and make progress with the middle east, stave off any potential future conflict with China over Taiwann, could be in control of Washington for a very long time.
