Yes. SS numbers are extra.
OCT 25, 2016
Kansas Gov. Sam Brownback’s trickle-down economics experiment is so bad the state stopped reporting on it
Gov. Brownback wanted to be held accountable. Now that his economic program is a disaster? Not so much
Kansas Gov. Sam Brownback’s trickle-down economics experiment is so bad the state stopped reporting on it
FEB 23, 2017
Kansas GOP revolts, nearly overturns Gov. Sam Brownback’s billion-dollar failed experiment
Republican-led state house votes overwhelmingly to roll back Brownback's 2012 tax cuts, but override falls short
Kansas GOP revolts, nearly overturns Gov. Sam Brownback’s billion-dollar failed experiment
MAY 1, 2017
Kansas: Exhibit A against trickle-down tax cuts
No credible analyst would claim that growth effects from tax cuts come anywhere close to offsetting their cost. There’s no consistent correlation between growth, productivity or investment and changes in tax rates over time or between
countries. That’s not to say tax cuts never have any effect on growth (the effects, for the record, can go either way; a new, authoritative
analysis of House Republicans’ latest trickle-down tax cut proposal finds, for instance, that its “estimated output effects appear to be limited in size and possibly negative”). But the historical evidence provides no basis for the kinds of claims we’re hearing from team Trump.
We don’t have to look only to history, though. T
here’s a real-time, trickle-down experiment ongoing in Kansas, one designed by the same folks behind the Trump plan.
In 2012, Kansas Gov. Sam Brownback signed a bill that, among other things, substantially cut the state’s top tax rate and exempted “
pass-through” business income from taxation (President Trump’s tax plan includes a similar
loophole). The architects of Brownback’s plan predicted that it would provide an “immediate and lasting boost” to the state’s economy.
They were wrong. Real GDP growth in Kansas since the fourth quarter of 2012 (Brownback’s cuts took effect in January 2013) has been relatively slow, at 6.1 percent through the third quarter of 2016. That’s about three-fourths of U.S. GDP growth over that same period (8.3 percent). A similar story holds for private employment growth: 5.0 percent in Kansas between December 2012 and March 2017, 9.1 percent in the U.S. overall. Relative to its neighboring states, Kansas is no standout, either; on these indicators, it’s doing worse than Colorado, Missouri and Nebraska, though better than Oklahoma (another big tax
cutter).
Kansas lost $472 million from the pass-through loophole in 2014 alone, and general fund revenue in 2016 was $570 million (0.4 percent of state GDP) below 2013 levels. Casualties of the reduced revenue have included the state’s transportation projects, some of which have been indefinitely postponed, and funding for K-12 and higher education. The state’s bond rating has been downgraded twice, in 2014 and in 2016.
As the table below summarizes (see
here for more details),
Kansas’s experience puts the lie of the tax cutters’ claims on full display.
WAPO
Perspective | Kansas: Exhibit A against trickle-down tax cuts
You have no ideas. You post memes. We cut spending. States like California with a trillion owed and a new half trillion policy per year passed, soon to escalate, it is bad. Who are you going to rob?
MY CALI? THE ONE THAT SUBSIDIZES RED STATES THAT SUCK OFF OUR TEET?
BTW, YOU CUT REVENUES INSTEAD AND CREATING MORE AS WAS PROMISED!
California Leads U.S. Economy, Away From Trump
Whatever the president says, this state does the opposite. It's working.
Look at California, which is one-eighth of the U.S. population with 39 million people and one-seventh of the nation's gross domestic product of $2.3 trillion.
Far from being a mess, California's economy is bigger than ever, rivaling the U.K. as No. 5 in the world, when figures for 2016 are officially tabulated.
California is the chief reason America is the only developed economy to achieve record GDP growth since the financial crisis of 2008 and ensuing global recession, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Much of the U.S. growth can be traced to California laws promoting clean energy, government accountability and protections for undocumented people. Governor Jerry Brown, now in his fourth term, considers immigrants a major reason for the state's success: "39 percent of us are Latino and the majority are from Mexico," he said in
a March 2 interview in his Sacramento office.
In the stock and bond markets, where investors show no allegiance to political parties, California has outperformed the rest of the U.S. the past five years, especially since the Nov. 9 election, when Trump became the fifth person to win the Electoral College and lose the popular vote. California's creditworthiness keeps getting better, measured by the declining premium global investors must pay to ensure against depreciation of the state's debt obligations. That premium has diminished more than for any other state since 2012, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. California, whose voters
favored Hillary Clinton two to one, outperformed Treasury bonds since the November election. Texas, which is the second-largest state in population and which
supported Trump, became cheaper compared to Treasuries and California in the market for state and local debt since the November election.
Investors see security in the state with more protections for immigrants and more regulations.
California's borrowing cost is 0.15 percentage points lower than the average for states and municipalities and has declined to just 0.24 percentage points more than the U.S. pays on its debt, down from 1.97 percentage points in 2013.
At the same time, bonds sold by
California's municipalities produced a total return of 2.3 percent since November, outperforming the benchmark for the U.S., according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The
growing popularityof bonds sold by California issuers is a consequence of the state's more rigorous regulation of the market, specifically
legislation signed by Brown last year, creating greater transparency and accountability for issuers of California debt.
No state or country has created as many laws discouraging fossil fuels and carbon while promoting clean energy. That convergence of policy and voter preference is paying off in the stock market.
...Behind such a favorable outlook is the diversity of the
California economy, which grew $42.3 billion during the first three quarters last year. That's almost as much as the next two fastest-growing states, New York and Florida, combined.
California Leads U.S. Economy, Away From Trump