Red Dawn
Senior Member
If polls were reliable predictors, we would see a lot more consistency between them. I come from a state that has always voted Democrat. For the past few years we have been purple, this year I have seen everything from Strong Obama to Leaning Obama to Tossup.
I am pretty skeptical of the polling process especially when you try to tie it to a campaign strategy and measure the movement in single percentage points. Your math is strange by the way.
Polls are 90% reliable within the margin of error.
Virtually all the mainstream polls on the eve of the election are 90% predictive, of the final margin of victory plus or minus within the margin of error.
This is basic statistics.
I don't understand why republicans so often say polling is voodoo. It is what it is. If done correctly by professionals, they are 90% accurate within the margin of error.