New Economy
Rookie
- Feb 7, 2016
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Mitt Romney lost in 2012 because of a lack of Republican voters. He actually won the Independent vote by 5%, but still lost. Could this happen again?
In 2012, Obama received just under 66M votes. Romney received just under 61M votes. He lost by 5M votes even though he won the Ind. vote by 5%. Post election polling showed evangelicals and staunch conservatives didn't like him. No one knows for sure how many of those voters stayed home and didn't vote.
According to Gallup polling, around 26% of registered voters identify as Rep., around 30% as Dem., and around 43% as Ind.
Using these numbers, if roughly the same number of voters go to the polls this November and cast votes down party lines, the Rep. candidate would have to win the Ind. vote by close to 10% in order to win the election. Obviously, many of those Ind. votes would have to come in the swing states to get those important electoral votes.
So the question voters must answer is if there is a candidate that can appeal to moderates, evangelicals, establishments, anti-establishments, staunch conservatives, as well as a majority of Inds. If a candidate is chosen again who can't pull in all of these groups(like McCain and Romney), they will lose the general election, simply because of the electoral demographics.
Trump, in large part, appeals to voters fed up with the establishment, but does not appeal to staunch conservatives or evangelicals, and doesn't poll well with Inds.
Cruz, in large part, appeals to evangelicals and staunch conservatives, but does not appeal to moderates, establishments, or Inds.
Rubio, Kasich, and Bush are all moderate, establishment candidates who appeal to establishments, Inds, some evangelicals, some staunch conservatives, but are despised by those who are looking for something different.
No easy answers.
On the Democrat side, they only have two candidates because numerous possible candidates didn't get in the race a few months ago because they thought Clinton was already the chosen candidate by the Dems., so running would be a waste of time. Now they only get to choose from two candidates that many democrats don't like.
These are great examples of how our election process is a mess.
Early states have way too much power to determine the final candidates without the input of tens of millions of voters in other states.
The majority of the people should have the power to decide, not a small group of mega donors and a few small states.
Changing our electoral system is an uphill battle, but the train wreck this election is turning into may be the opening we need to start the process of creating a more representative election.
In 2012, Obama received just under 66M votes. Romney received just under 61M votes. He lost by 5M votes even though he won the Ind. vote by 5%. Post election polling showed evangelicals and staunch conservatives didn't like him. No one knows for sure how many of those voters stayed home and didn't vote.
According to Gallup polling, around 26% of registered voters identify as Rep., around 30% as Dem., and around 43% as Ind.
Using these numbers, if roughly the same number of voters go to the polls this November and cast votes down party lines, the Rep. candidate would have to win the Ind. vote by close to 10% in order to win the election. Obviously, many of those Ind. votes would have to come in the swing states to get those important electoral votes.
So the question voters must answer is if there is a candidate that can appeal to moderates, evangelicals, establishments, anti-establishments, staunch conservatives, as well as a majority of Inds. If a candidate is chosen again who can't pull in all of these groups(like McCain and Romney), they will lose the general election, simply because of the electoral demographics.
Trump, in large part, appeals to voters fed up with the establishment, but does not appeal to staunch conservatives or evangelicals, and doesn't poll well with Inds.
Cruz, in large part, appeals to evangelicals and staunch conservatives, but does not appeal to moderates, establishments, or Inds.
Rubio, Kasich, and Bush are all moderate, establishment candidates who appeal to establishments, Inds, some evangelicals, some staunch conservatives, but are despised by those who are looking for something different.
No easy answers.
On the Democrat side, they only have two candidates because numerous possible candidates didn't get in the race a few months ago because they thought Clinton was already the chosen candidate by the Dems., so running would be a waste of time. Now they only get to choose from two candidates that many democrats don't like.
These are great examples of how our election process is a mess.
Early states have way too much power to determine the final candidates without the input of tens of millions of voters in other states.
The majority of the people should have the power to decide, not a small group of mega donors and a few small states.
Changing our electoral system is an uphill battle, but the train wreck this election is turning into may be the opening we need to start the process of creating a more representative election.
