Why WWII opened so badly for the US

[Mushroom]

A lot of people have long commented on how badly the US did at the start of the Pacific War. But what I have seen nobody ever discuss is why that was.

And ultimately, it all goes back to the Rainbow War Plans. Specifically, War Plan Orange. That was the War Plan created just after World War I to deal with a US-Japanese war.

And in reality, it was a really good plan. Much of it based upon the writings of Marine Major (later Lieutenant Colonel) Earl Ellis. Where right after WWI he was already predicting that the next major war for the US would be against Japan, and an "Island Hopping" campaign would be required to take the fight to them. In addition the ways that aircraft would change naval warfare.

And up until the morning of 7 December, the US was following that plan. Because all of the experts were predicting the attack on the Philippines. That is why the US was frantically sending as much in supplies and manpower there as they could. And was already ramping up construction of ships to be sent to the Philippines. And according to the plans, it was expected the opening fight would be located there and at other outposts like Guam and Wake.

Where once the war started, the US Fleet would be mobilized and sail to relieve those islands. Then take the fight to the Japanese. With the first sorties being more men and equipment to defend the islands, then a massive naval force to break the blockade and fight the Japanese themselves. And in the weeks before war broke out, that is what they were already doing. With aircraft and men being sent there and the other islands as fast as they could.

However, nobody predicted Pearl Harbor. And in that one blow, War Plan Orange was largely obliterated when it came to the opening response of the US. With the Battleships all damaged or destroyed, the US simply lacked any ability to break the stranglehold on any of the Pacific islands. And one after another they fell.

And because of the losses at Pearl Harbor, that hampered the US for months. The first major naval engagement was at Coral Sea in May 1941. And that was a tactical victory for Japan, but a strategic victory for the US. It is also the first naval battle where no ships fired at each other, it was fought entirely by aircraft. Which is good, because the Japanese surface forces badly outnumbered those of the US. And while Japan won tactically because in reality they won that battle, the US won strategically because their losses were less than those of Japan and were easier to replace.

It was not until Midway in June 1942 that the US finally had sufficient resources in the Pacific to really take the fight to Japan. But even then, there were setbacks. Like Savo Island, where the US was ambushed and took heavy losses. Forcing a retreat and stranding the Marines on the beach without support. Which the US responded to by winning at Cape Esperance, basically doing to the Japanese what had been done to them at Savo.

And after the naval battles at Guadalcanal, the tide started to turn. As battleships that had been repaired or moved from the Atlantic started to show up in battles, as well as WWII era cruisers that were not restricted by the London Naval Treaties like the Cleveland and Baltimore Classes. Plus the exceptional ability of our Brooklyn Class Light Cruisers, like the USS Boise. Which could put out such a massive amount of firepower that they actually destroyed Japanese Heavy Cruisers, and the Japanese called them "Machine-Gun Cruisers)".

 

[luiza]

Still much better than WW3 which so far has been a cross between disasters and humiliation .
Do not mention Afghanistran or Ukraine

 

[whitehall]

There was no national intelligence network or espionage network in place prior to WW2. Strangely enough the U.S. government relied on racial stereotypes to judge the capability of the Japanese military and a hodge podge of military intelligence networks. A reasonable assumption would be that FDR thought the Japanese empire would be a pushover and he invited an attack but had no idea it would be such a disaster. The Philippines had about a day to prepare for attack after Pearl Harbor but the Old Soldier who had retired but was recalled by FDR to be the commander of the area most likely to be attacked by the Japanese was apparently unable or unwilling to enact the "war plan" and his entire air force was destroyed parked wing to wing on the ground.

 

[Mushroom]

There was no national intelligence network or espionage network in place prior to WW2

You keep harping back on that over and over again.

And once again I say, exactly what intelligence did anybody have that could have made the outcome any different? Did we have some highly placed spy inside the Japanese military decision loop that passed along information about this attack, and it was somehow ignored and dismissed because of... racism?

No, there was not. In fact, this attack was probably the most secret operation in the world at the time it was carried out, and even more secure than either the Manhattan Project or MAGIC. The first one had leaked rather largely, as even the Soviet leader knew more about it than the US President did. And MAGIC was one of those "open secrets" by the end of the war, as far more people knew about that than they should have also. Thankfully however, that was against Japan who had very few spies in the US.

No, the Japanese were simply very smart when it came to what we call OpSec. Absolutely nothing about Operation Z was ever transmitted over the radio. Absolutely everything about it was told person to person, or by hand delivered courier. Even the ships when they left port were given special instructions, to go to a specific point and wait for the other ships to arrive, and to maintain absolute radio silence no matter what from the moment they left port.

So once again, what difference would a "National Intelligence" have made when the adversary was being that careful as to allow absolutely nothing to leak in any way? The first radio transmission sent between 26 November and 8 December (using Japanese dates because they crossed the International Date Line) was from the commander of the attacking forces announcing they had achieved complete surprise (Tiger repeated three times). That was almost two weeks at sea, in complete radio blackout.

You keep failing to recognize that it does not matter what "National Intelligence" a nation can have, if the adversary is careful enough to not let any information leak prior to the event. We actually had a lot of intelligence operatives in the region, but they were primarily in China. And Japan never told anybody in China about that operation. The only operation that leaked at all was the troop movements, as they were being moved east and put onto ships. Which we knew were going to the Philippines. Which we were aware of and were reinforcing at that time.

 

[whitehall]

You keep harping back on that over and over again.

And once again I say, exactly what intelligence did anybody have that could have made the outcome any different? Did we have some highly placed spy inside the Japanese military decision loop that passed along information about this attack, and it was somehow ignored and dismissed because of... racism?

No, there was not. In fact, this attack was probably the most secret operation in the world at the time it was carried out, and even more secure than either the Manhattan Project or MAGIC. The first one had leaked rather largely, as even the Soviet leader knew more about it than the US President did. And MAGIC was one of those "open secrets" by the end of the war, as far more people knew about that than they should have also. Thankfully however, that was against Japan who had very few spies in the US.

No, the Japanese were simply very smart when it came to what we call OpSec. Absolutely nothing about Operation Z was ever transmitted over the radio. Absolutely everything about it was told person to person, or by hand delivered courier. Even the ships when they left port were given special instructions, to go to a specific point and wait for the other ships to arrive, and to maintain absolute radio silence no matter what from the moment they left port.

So once again, what difference would a "National Intelligence" have made when the adversary was being that careful as to allow absolutely nothing to leak in any way? The first radio transmission sent between 26 November and 8 December (using Japanese dates because they crossed the International Date Line) was from the commander of the attacking forces announcing they had achieved complete surprise (Tiger repeated three times). That was almost two weeks at sea, in complete radio blackout.

You keep failing to recognize that it does not matter what "National Intelligence" a nation can have, if the adversary is careful enough to not let any information leak prior to the event. We actually had a lot of intelligence operatives in the region, but they were primarily in China. And Japan never told anybody in China about that operation. The only operation that leaked at all was the troop movements, as they were being moved east and put onto ships. Which we knew were going to the Philippines. Which we were aware of and were reinforcing at that time.

It's true isn't it? The Brit representatives who visited the U.S. after the U.S. became involved in the "real war" in Europe were shocked to find that there was no espionage or counter espionage network in the U.S. when the Brits were highly involved in the critical part of warfare. The Supreme Court finally had to name the FBI as the lead espionage agency even though Hoover's G-Men had little or no experience in the field of espionage.

 

[Mushroom]

It's true isn't it?

And once again, name any intelligence they had that would have indicated the attack. Name any high level assets they ever had in Japan.

You keep going on about how great the Intelligence network of the UK was, and how shocked they were. How well did that help them when Germany attacked Poland? Where was their intelligence failure?

What about the assault into Belgium to circumvent the Maginot Line? Their warning of that assault?

This is why you keep failing, because you keep trying to push a claim that has no actual basis in history.

So once again, what intelligence was gathered but ignored that made this an "intelligence failure"?

 

[gipper]

A lot of people have long commented on how badly the US did at the start of the Pacific War. But what I have seen nobody ever discuss is why that was.

And ultimately, it all goes back to the Rainbow War Plans. Specifically, War Plan Orange. That was the War Plan created just after World War I to deal with a US-Japanese war.

And in reality, it was a really good plan. Much of it based upon the writings of Marine Major (later Lieutenant Colonel) Earl Ellis. Where right after WWI he was already predicting that the next major war for the US would be against Japan, and an "Island Hopping" campaign would be required to take the fight to them. In addition the ways that aircraft would change naval warfare.

And up until the morning of 7 December, the US was following that plan. Because all of the experts were predicting the attack on the Philippines. That is why the US was frantically sending as much in supplies and manpower there as they could. And was already ramping up construction of ships to be sent to the Philippines. And according to the plans, it was expected the opening fight would be located there and at other outposts like Guam and Wake.

Where once the war started, the US Fleet would be mobilized and sail to relieve those islands. Then take the fight to the Japanese. With the first sorties being more men and equipment to defend the islands, then a massive naval force to break the blockade and fight the Japanese themselves. And in the weeks before war broke out, that is what they were already doing. With aircraft and men being sent there and the other islands as fast as they could.

However, nobody predicted Pearl Harbor. And in that one blow, War Plan Orange was largely obliterated when it came to the opening response of the US. With the Battleships all damaged or destroyed, the US simply lacked any ability to break the stranglehold on any of the Pacific islands. And one after another they fell.

And because of the losses at Pearl Harbor, that hampered the US for months. The first major naval engagement was at Coral Sea in May 1941. And that was a tactical victory for Japan, but a strategic victory for the US. It is also the first naval battle where no ships fired at each other, it was fought entirely by aircraft. Which is good, because the Japanese surface forces badly outnumbered those of the US. And while Japan won tactically because in reality they won that battle, the US won strategically because their losses were less than those of Japan and were easier to replace.

It was not until Midway in June 1942 that the US finally had sufficient resources in the Pacific to really take the fight to Japan. But even then, there were setbacks. Like Savo Island, where the US was ambushed and took heavy losses. Forcing a retreat and stranding the Marines on the beach without support. Which the US responded to by winning at Cape Esperance, basically doing to the Japanese what had been done to them at Savo.

And after the naval battles at Guadalcanal, the tide started to turn. As battleships that had been repaired or moved from the Atlantic started to show up in battles, as well as WWII era cruisers that were not restricted by the London Naval Treaties like the Cleveland and Baltimore Classes. Plus the exceptional ability of our Brooklyn Class Light Cruisers, like the USS Boise. Which could put out such a massive amount of firepower that they actually destroyed Japanese Heavy Cruisers, and the Japanese called them "Machine-Gun Cruisers)".

 

[whitehall]

And once again, name any intelligence they had that would have indicated the attack. Name any high level assets they ever had in Japan.

You keep going on about how great the Intelligence network of the UK was, and how shocked they were. How well did that help them when Germany attacked Poland? Where was their intelligence failure?

What about the assault into Belgium to circumvent the Maginot Line? Their warning of that assault?

This is why you keep failing, because you keep trying to push a claim that has no actual basis in history.

So once again, what intelligence was gathered but ignored that made this an "intelligence failure"?

How would anyone know what intelligence was gathered but ignored? COS Marshall was credited with a near photographic memory but for some reason he was unable to tell a congressional committee where he was on the night before the "day of infamy". Marshall was one of a handful of people who had access to "magic" which was the decoding of Japanese diplomatic messages. According to accounts his office had been desperate to contact him on the morning of Dec. 7 but he arrived uncharacteristically late. He had the decoded message that indicated an imminent attack by Japan but he read and reread and re-reread the message until the G.I. message center went down and he ended up sending an alert to Hawaii by a Western Union telegram which arrived at the same time as the Japanese Zeros.

 

[ozro]

Ho-hum. Another thread judging historical events by the knowledge and standards of the present.
That is the exclusive domain of the uneducated.

 

[whitehall]

Ho-hum. Another thread judging historical events by the knowledge and standards of the present.
That is the exclusive domain of the uneducated.

Aren't the standards of 20th century events the same as they are today? It seems to me that the educated would be curious about relevant 20th century events and the uneducated would be as uninterested as they were when they were sleeping during history class.

 

[ozro]

Aren't the standards of 20th century events the same as they are today? It seems to me that the educated would be curious about relevant 20th century events and the uneducated would be as uninterested as they were when they were sleeping during history class.

Well, except for things like satellite photos, improved radios, jet aircraft, smart weapons, improved battlefield medicine, electronic mapping, laser sighted rifles, improved body armour, ......
Shall I go on about what has changed since 1941?

 

[Mushroom]

How would anyone know what intelligence was gathered but ignored?

Ah, another common tactic used by Conspiracy Theorists. "We do not know of anything, but there might be so therefore it exists because I believe it does".

Well, feel free to check the National Archives. Almost everything from WWII has been declassified decades ago. In fact, the last major "secret" from that war was MAGIC, which was finally declassified in 1988.

 

[Mushroom]

It seems to me that the educated would be curious about relevant 20th century events and the uneducated would be as uninterested as they were when they were sleeping during history class.

But what you often are trying to do is rewrite history to fit your beliefs. And that is not how it works.

You actually present evidence to back up your claim. You don't simply shrug your shoulders and say "Well, there may be proof out there, how would we know?"

Maybe Joshua bar Joseph in Jerusalem in around the year 33 CE was an alien from Alpha Centari. After all, there is no evidence that he was not an alien, and I can't find anything saying he was not one.

That is literally the kind of claims you are making. Maybe I am not real. I am simply a very intelligent AI parser connected through the brain of a canine and a chimp. After all, how could I prove to the satisfaction in here that I am not really an AI?

There is a reason that I tend to see those who chase after and believe in Conspiracy Theories as mentally challenged at best, brain damaged or mentally ill at worst. They can not actually follow a logical chain of events, evidence, or much of anything else. They jump around and scream at anything they do not understand, and scream it is a conspiracy. That what they believe is true, but somebody is keeping the truth a secret from everybody.

That is why I also laugh when I would get called into the CT areas of boards like this about "Truther" nonsense. I would see those that believed in planted explosives holding hands and supporting those who believed in drone aircraft, cruise missiles with holograms, and a bunch of other nonsense. And it was interesting to see 5 or 6 people with radically different beliefs ganging up against somebody who dared to agree with what all the evidence points to.

Because ultimately, the one thing they all agreed with almost rabidly is that the government is lying, and therefore anybody who believes in that is the enemy. And even if they all had huge differences in what happened, they knew the government was lying therefore they were all right.

It really is the kind of logic that only makes sense to people who are insane.

 

[Mushroom]

The Brit representatives who visited the U.S. after the U.S. became involved in the "real war" in Europe were shocked to find that there was no espionage or counter espionage network in the U.S. when the Brits were highly involved in the critical part of warfare.

And to cycle back to this and your adoration of the British, how well were they prepared for the Japanese attack? The fact is, they were even less prepared than the US was, and had not been doing the massive force increase like the Americans had been. And at the opening of hostilities they also were caught off-guard and quickly overwhelmed.

 

[Ringo]

 

[Zebra]

There was no national intelligence network or espionage network in place prior to WW2. Strangely enough the U.S. government relied on racial stereotypes to judge the capability of the Japanese military and a hodge podge of military intelligence networks. A reasonable assumption would be that FDR thought the Japanese empire would be a pushover and he invited an attack but had no idea it would be such a disaster. The Philippines had about a day to prepare for attack after Pearl Harbor but the Old Soldier who had retired but was recalled by FDR to be the commander of the area most likely to be attacked by the Japanese was apparently unable or unwilling to enact the "war plan" and his entire air force was destroyed parked wing to wing on the ground.

tragic!