JimBowie1958
Old Fogey
- Sep 25, 2011
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http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.co...ch-supporters-would-split-between/?hpt=hp_bn3
The 'Not Romney' vote has never been all 'not Romney' voters. Believe it or not, alot of people supporting alternative candidates have Romney as their second choice at this point in the process, and the above poll shows that of the remaining Gingrich supporters as many of them would support Romney as would support Santorum were Gingrich to leave the race.
Santorum has already laid claim to the lions share of Gingrich supporters after winning in Mississippi and Alabama. The people remaining are obviously not charmed by Santorum and would be as likely to jump on the Romney bandwagon as to support Santorum and as Romney builds his delegate lead, a far higher percentage of G Supporters would go to R instead of S.
By Gingirch staying in he keeps those voters away from Romney and thus helps Santorum acheive better results as G's presence makes it tougher for R to make 50% of the vote and trigger 100% delegate counts in many states that have such rules. The Math: Say a state has 46% R support, 40% S support and 10% G support. Take out S , give G support an even split, and we have 51% R and 45% S and in many states that gives R everything.
When the Winner take all states kick in, this wont be so much a factor, but only time will tell. Like many other things, politics is more about impressions than fact.
The 'Not Romney' vote has never been all 'not Romney' voters. Believe it or not, alot of people supporting alternative candidates have Romney as their second choice at this point in the process, and the above poll shows that of the remaining Gingrich supporters as many of them would support Romney as would support Santorum were Gingrich to leave the race.
Santorum has already laid claim to the lions share of Gingrich supporters after winning in Mississippi and Alabama. The people remaining are obviously not charmed by Santorum and would be as likely to jump on the Romney bandwagon as to support Santorum and as Romney builds his delegate lead, a far higher percentage of G Supporters would go to R instead of S.
By Gingirch staying in he keeps those voters away from Romney and thus helps Santorum acheive better results as G's presence makes it tougher for R to make 50% of the vote and trigger 100% delegate counts in many states that have such rules. The Math: Say a state has 46% R support, 40% S support and 10% G support. Take out S , give G support an even split, and we have 51% R and 45% S and in many states that gives R everything.
When the Winner take all states kick in, this wont be so much a factor, but only time will tell. Like many other things, politics is more about impressions than fact.
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