Why Gingrich Staying in HELPS Santorum

Discussion in 'Politics' started by JimBowie1958, Mar 18, 2012.

  1. JimBowie1958
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    JimBowie1958 Old Fogey

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    http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.co...ch-supporters-would-split-between/?hpt=hp_bn3

    The 'Not Romney' vote has never been all 'not Romney' voters. Believe it or not, alot of people supporting alternative candidates have Romney as their second choice at this point in the process, and the above poll shows that of the remaining Gingrich supporters as many of them would support Romney as would support Santorum were Gingrich to leave the race.

    Santorum has already laid claim to the lions share of Gingrich supporters after winning in Mississippi and Alabama. The people remaining are obviously not charmed by Santorum and would be as likely to jump on the Romney bandwagon as to support Santorum and as Romney builds his delegate lead, a far higher percentage of G Supporters would go to R instead of S.

    By Gingirch staying in he keeps those voters away from Romney and thus helps Santorum acheive better results as G's presence makes it tougher for R to make 50% of the vote and trigger 100% delegate counts in many states that have such rules. The Math: Say a state has 46% R support, 40% S support and 10% G support. Take out S , give G support an even split, and we have 51% R and 45% S and in many states that gives R everything.

    When the Winner take all states kick in, this wont be so much a factor, but only time will tell. Like many other things, politics is more about impressions than fact.
     
    Last edited: Mar 18, 2012
  2. Mac1958
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    Mac1958 Platinum Member

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    Yeah, this is the weird thing. I suspect "conventional wisdom" (cough cough) would be that if either Gingrich or Santorum (or "Sanitorium", as my 91-year old mom mistakenly called him yesterday, love that woman) were to drop out, the other would automatically get a lion's share of those votes.

    I guess not, and I wonder why that is. I'd like to talk with those folks.

    .
     
  3. Seawytch
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    Seawytch Information isnt Advocacy

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    Gingrich staying in helps Gingrich get more in speaking fees.
     
  4. JoeB131
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    JoeB131 Diamond Member

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    If I can throw something in. The GOP has always been this alliance between social conservatives- working class people - mostly white - who care about the cultural issues like gun owneship, abortion, traditional marriage, oppossition to affirmative action, etc. and the economic conservatives- those who really care about getting the government the hell out of the way so they can make more money. And somehow, they've convinced these two groups they have a common cause.

    In some cases, they do. Like affirmative action. White folks who see their middle class oppurtunities declining are fighting ike mad to keep what their parents have, and don't like seeing someone being given a step ahead of them because a bureaucrat said so. Business types don't like it because they don't like having to file tons of paperwork to meet the government's minimum requirements, which does nothing to add to their bottom line.

    Sometimes it can be a bit sinister- Oppossition to immigration reform is largely racist on the part of the rank and file, but the economic conservatives are against it because once those people are legal, you won't be able to exploit them or use them to keep working people's wages down.

    Romney doesn't believe in the Social Conservative stuff at all. He's the poster child for the economic conservatives.

    Santorum is the poster child for the economic conservatives, but he kind of gets the working class stuff and concerns, which is why he resonated when Bachmann and Perry didn't. He kind of gets that a free trade treaty with China doesn't really help the guy working at a mill in Pittsburgh.

    I think Newt enjoyed a temporary surge early on with his debate performances when he seemed passionate and Romney was just reciting his programming by rote.. But he quickly wore thin on the economic conservatives, and the social conservative kind of remember he really didn't do all that much for them when he was speaker.

    I think there is this attempt to destroy Santorum now, but the things you could find fault with him for are the things that probably help him in the GOP nomination. So Romney is back to is old argument. "I'm electable, these other guys aren't"

    Completely ignoring that Romney has lost/weenied out in 3 out of 4 races he's run in, while Santorum won 4 out of 5.

    Does Newt help Santorum? Maybe, but again, I think it's really to how much the GOP is going to swallow the "Electability" Koolaid that Romney is the best they have, and a brokered convention isn't feasiable.
     
  5. oreo
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    oreo Gold Member Supporting Member

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    I think you've got a point. I am huge fan of Newt Gingrich--and am now asking him to back out of this race--simply because the longer this draws out--the less time we have to go after Barack Obama.

    Obviously--Gingrich supporters are not "family value" far Christian right supporters--as he himself has had 3 marriages with some affairs included. What attracted us to Gingrich was his FISCAL conservatism.

    Gingrich supporters are smart enough to realize that a Santorum nominee would get slaughtered by Barack Obama--and probably cost us the house and senate also. Furthermore--Santorum has a real voting record proving that he had no problems with earmarks and spending our money.

    So if Gingrich actually dropped out of this race--the majority of his supporters would go to Mitt Romney--who also has a record of cutting government spending.

     
  6. oreo
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    oreo Gold Member Supporting Member

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    Santorum has absolutely NO record of FISCAL Responsibiliy. A little reading versus listening to his stump speech's would clarify that.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/16/u...-donations-flowed-in.html?_r=1&pagewanted=all

    What A Big Government Conservative Looks Like | RedState

    [​IMG]

    The ONLY conservative bone in Santorum's body--is his 16th century Catholic beliefs and statements that are even turning off Catholic voters--as he is too extreme for them. All exist polling data shows that they are voting for Mitt Romney. Santorum's EXTREME views would send women and independents running into those voting booths to vote for Obama. Santorum could easily cost us the house and senate too.
     
    Last edited: Mar 18, 2012
  7. JoeB131
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    JoeB131 Diamond Member

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    Yawn, More Catholic Bashing from Oreo.

    You realize you guys aren't going to win the Catholic "Reagan Democrats" back with that kind of spew, right?
     
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