Why does Dick Morris still have Romney ahead by 7 pts?

[ginscpy]

Morris cites interlal polls.

Guy must know something - has been around.......................................

 

[oreo]

Morris cites interlal polls.

Guy must know something - has been around.......................................

As we know--the national polls have been oversampling democrats to republicans and leaving independents out of the equation. They're also using 2010 voter turn-out to give these very unrealistic polling data to show Obama ahead.

Here is a good example:

CNN a couple of weeks ago showed Obama leading by 6 points over Romney in a national poll.

CNN is grabbing political headlines tonight with the release of its latest poll. It shows Obama surging to a 6-point lead over Romney, 52-46, among likely. Before the start of the Democrat convention, the candidates had been tied in the poll. Since it purportedly confirms a narrative the media is trying to build, i.e. that Obama is starting to pull away with the race, it is getting wide coverage. However, there are a couple of strange things within the poll that cast doubt on its veracity. And, at least one concern warrants a response from CNN.

First, this being a media poll, it has an obvious skew towards Democrats. The partisan breakdown is (D/R/I) 50/45/5. It perhaps isn’t surprising that Obama is leading a D+5 poll by 6 points. Throughout the campaign season, Obama’s margin usually is very close to the partisan skew in the sample. It is surprising, though, that Independents make up only 5% of the sample. Tellingly, Romney leads this group by 14 points.

CNN manipulated their polling | Education News

Of course then last Quinnipac released several swing state polls showing Obama ahead in every one of them--again by over-polling democrats to republicans and only adding a 1% sample of Independents.

Jammie Wearing catches the NY Times/Quinnipiac poll dramatically skewing the methodology of the poll to strongly over-sample Democrats:

So Obama is up 9 in Florida with a D+9 sample, up 10 in Ohio with a D+9 sample and up 12 in Pennsylvania with a D+11 sample. I notice in all the orgasmic news reports this morning none of them mention the ridiculous skew to the polls. But all you will hear all day is how big a lead Obama has.

Never trust a word they say: NY Times, Quinnipiac skew polling in attempt to depress turnout of voters frustrated with the failures of Obamanomics « Bob Owens

So here is the un-manipulation chart--(that btw) does not include the correct amount of independents who favor Romney now by 15 points. You'll see that Romney is leading in these swing states.
James Carville Poll Panics Dems: Romney Leads By 15 Points Among Independents « Pat Dollard

I imagine this has something to do with what Dick Morris is talking about. Basically the polls are telling us that the same amount of people are going to come out and vote for Barack Obama as they did in 2008--and that the Republicans that showed up in 2010 which resulted in an historic 75 year butt kicking of democrats across this country won't be voting this year along with independents--who Romney leads by 15 points---

 

[Remodeling Maidiac]

Dunno what his process is but I do enjoy hearing him despite some of his nutty rhetoric.

 

[LoneLaugher]

Dick Morris is ALWAYS right. He has never made a prediction that turned out to be inaccurate.

 

[LoneLaugher]

Is Dick Morris the world's worst political pundit? | Harry J Enten | Comment is free | guardian.co.uk

 

[NYcarbineer]

What do you suppose Democratic/Republican turnout was in 1996 compared to 1994??

 

[Remodeling Maidiac]

Dick Morris is ALWAYS right. He has never made a prediction that turned out to be inaccurate.

He's been wrong quite a bit but the man is fun to listen to. At this point I give him a SLIGHT edge over all the bullshit polls we've endured to this point.

He has played in the sandbox on both sides of the isle. I've never read his books so I dunno why he switched but I bet it's an interesting story.

 

[Remodeling Maidiac]

What do you suppose Democratic/Republican turnout was in 1996 compared to 1994??

I'll give you a hint......

This ISN'T 2006 so your point is as stupid as it Is moot

 

[LoneLaugher]

Dick Morris is ALWAYS right. He has never made a prediction that turned out to be inaccurate.

He's been wrong quite a bit but the man is fun to listen to. At this point I give him a SLIGHT edge over all the bullshit polls we've endured to this point.

He has played in the sandbox on both sides of the isle. I've never read his books so I dunno why he switched but I bet it's an interesting story.

And.....knowing how you are so firmly planted in reality that you have never been suckered.....those words are so very meaningful. You give DICK FUCKING MORRIS an edge over ALL. the other polls. Wonderfully stupid of you.

 

[NYcarbineer]

Morris is trying to make money telling rightwingers what they want to hear.

 

[Remodeling Maidiac]

Dick Morris is ALWAYS right. He has never made a prediction that turned out to be inaccurate.

He's been wrong quite a bit but the man is fun to listen to. At this point I give him a SLIGHT edge over all the bullshit polls we've endured to this point.

He has played in the sandbox on both sides of the isle. I've never read his books so I dunno why he switched but I bet it's an interesting story.

And.....knowing how you are so firmly planted in reality that you have never been suckered.....those words are so very meaningful. You give DICK FUCKING MORRIS an edge over ALL. the other polls. Wonderfully stupid of you.

Right!

How stupid of me to think I could engage you in a meaningful conversation.

Suck the neg twit

 

[NYcarbineer]

What do you suppose Democratic/Republican turnout was in 1996 compared to 1994??

I'll give you a hint......

This ISN'T 2006 so your point is as stupid as it Is moot

No, it's an incumbent president running for re-election after taking a bad hit in the midterms. Which is what 1996 was.

Why didn't you jump on the other poster's shit for bringing up 2010?

 

[LoneLaugher]

Meaningful requires basic intellect. You cannot claim that if you buy something......ANYTHING.....that Dick Morris says.

 

[Duped]

Morris makes millions on his perpicuity!

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Romney destroys Obama during the debate, Obama launches his October surprise to try to pull even

 

[LoneLaugher]

Morris makes millions on his perpicuity!

What was that? Impressive word..........when it is spelled correctly.

Ya can't make this shit up.

 

[Remodeling Maidiac]

Meaningful requires basic intellect. You cannot claim that if you buy something......ANYTHING.....that Dick Morris says.

I GAVE you ample openings to school me on Morris. I don't know the man. I haven't read his books. But instead you resorted to homeschool level insults. I should have just left you on ignore as that was as meaningfull as your childish insults.

Problem solved......goodbye

 

[Remodeling Maidiac]

What do you suppose Democratic/Republican turnout was in 1996 compared to 1994??

I'll give you a hint......

This ISN'T 2006 so your point is as stupid as it Is moot

No, it's an incumbent president running for re-election after taking a bad hit in the midterms. Which is what 1996 was.

Why didn't you jump on the other poster's shit for bringing up 2010?

Fair enough. I didn't read the entire thread. I skimmed the pithy responses and yours caught my attention

 

[LoneLaugher]

Fuck off, loser. The ignore feature was invented for losers.

 

[Lakhota]

Dick "Toe Sucker" Morris is retarded. Too much toe jam in his brain...