Why are Climate "Scientists" Predictions Always Wrong?

Discussion in 'Environment' started by SwingVoter, Dec 26, 2010.

  1. SwingVoter
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    SwingVoter VIP Member

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    In the 70s, they said the world would cool. It didn't. In the late 80s, they said we'd see an acceleration in the rate of sea level rise. We haven't. In the 90s, they said we'd see less snow. We haven't.

    Now, I found this one - Barrow, Alaska will be gone within a few decades. But talk is cheap, especially when their track record is so bad. But I don't expect anyone from the global warming cult will offer to take a dip in the Arctic if proven wrong. Rather, they'll rename it again, and blame "skeptics" for not joining their misguided religion.

    from The inmates are in charge of the asylum | Institute for Social Ecology

    The melting ice cap, which is predicted to raise sea levels by 4 feet world-wide over the next several decades, will translate into a 14 foot rise in sea levels on the North Slope of Alaska, putting Barrow and five other Inupiak communities under water, effectively bringing to an end a unique culture that has survived for six thousand years.
     
  2. westwall
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    westwall USMB Mod Staff Member Gold Supporting Member Supporting Member

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    Because they aren't interested in being correct. They are interested in political power and making money.
     
  3. william the wie
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    william the wie Gold Member

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    Get the book "Chaos" by James Gleick. Back in 1961 Edward Lorentz in work on long range forecasting at MIT proved that measurement rounding error compounded over space and time to make long range weather forecasting (climatology) impossible. While it is possible to make predictions longer and more accurate at much greater marginal cost those marginal costs have yet to be paid to make 90+ day forecasts more useful than a farmer's almanac. ("The Essence of Chaos" by Lorentz explains this better but I found it pretty heavy slogging as in apparent global warming can cause an almost instantaneous switch to an ice age, if I read it right. The appropriate model is an old style pinball machine seems to be the argument.) There is also fractal latency due to the Oceans and icepacks acting as heat sinks and variation in solar radiation has major effects. Any and all predictions more than 90 days out are simply guesswork so while cleaning up the air is a good idea the effect of climate is unknowable.
     
  4. Matthew
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    Matthew Blue dog all the way!

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    The earth is a complex system in which we have only started to figure it out. We're learning every day and that is why the theory's and idea's change a lot. Who ever that thought that a warming world would in the short term(next 30 years) would just uniformally warm and end all cold weather was short sighted. Period. Putting energy into system with extra moisture can change storm tracks and make the weather extra extreme. If global warming is occurring you need to avg up the global avg over months, years, decades to get a idea...If the world avg above normal and each decade is warming then we have a warming world...Later on as the temperature difference between pole and equator grows smaller then in the other ways the weather pattern will become weaker as temperature change through lat becomes less....But for now it has not warmed enough and the extra punch of energy is leaning things in over drive...hehehe.:tongue:

    But of course this could all be bs.
     
    Last edited: Dec 26, 2010
  5. Matthew
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    Matthew Blue dog all the way!

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    Quite possible, but if so we're in serious trouble and things are about ready to get bad. I imagine that if this was found to be true that the outrage would spark war that would make world war 1 and 2 look like nothing.
     
    Last edited: Dec 26, 2010
  6. rdean
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    rdean rddean

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    Why are Climate "Scientists" Predictions Always Wrong?

    6% isn't always wrong.
     
  7. Zoom-boing
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    Zoom-boing Gold Member

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    [​IMG]
     
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  8. westwall
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    westwall USMB Mod Staff Member Gold Supporting Member Supporting Member

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    No, but that other 94% allmost allways is wrong!:lol::lol::lol: Gotchya!:lol:
     
  9. Old Rocks
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    Old Rocks Diamond Member

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    Hansen's predictions from 1988 for 2000 were dead on. But he missed after that. The melting of the Arctic Ice has far outpaced predictions. We are where we were predicted to be in 2050.
     
  10. Old Rocks
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    Just once, it would be nice to see people like you actually do the research. In the '70s, the majority of predictions was for warming.

    Climate myths: They predicted global cooling in the 1970s - environment - 16 May 2007 - New Scientist

    Update: A survey of the scientific literature has found that between 1965 and 1979, 44 scientific papers predicted warming, 20 were neutral and just 7 predicted cooling. So while predictions of cooling got more media attention, the majority of scientists were predicting warming even then.
     

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