The one thing that is crystal clear is that both majors are going to do the political equivalent of carpet bombing with very little concern for collateral damage. One huge surprise is that, based on RCP polling, that it appears that Johnson support was 60% Democratic that went back to Hillary during the conventions. When the negative ads hit high gear there will be major defections from both majors down ballot candidates in swing states. The other key factor is the IL budget battle. If interest rates go up prior to the election whether through a Fed hike or hot money going elsewhere for example to the UK as Commonwealth free trade deals start stacking up in anticipation of Brexit then the probability of IL chapter 3 goes way up. The question is whether there will be enough time for a bandwagon effect to form?