Statistikhengst
Diamond Member
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An article came out in KOS asking what is going on in those mid-western breadbasked states, but I usually don't quote too many things from either the extreme Left or the extreme Right.
However, others are noticing this, and is actually started in 2012.
In 2012, Democratic senatorial candidate Heidi Heitkamp (D) narrowly beat out Republican Rick Berg + 0.90% while at the same time, Mitt Romney (R) trounced Pres. Obama in North Dakota by +19.63. Another little known fact is that MORE votes were cast in the ND 2012 Senatorial (330,851) than in the ND 2012 Presidential (322,627). Now, ND had not just one, but two Democratic Senators for quite a long time (Konrad and Dorgan, both elected in 1992), and with some substantial margins. But in 2010, Republican John Hoeven picked-up Dorgan's old seat (he retired) by an astounding +53.91% margin, possibly the largest winning margin in all of ND's history. And yet, two years later, a little known Democrat, in a year where an embattled Democratic president was on the ballot in a crimson red state, won in a tough battle.
Fast forward to 2014:
South Dakota, North Dakota's neighbor to the south:
Actually, Mike Rounds is doing worse than this, because the two September polls should long be out of the statistic by now. He is actually at +3.5 over Independent Pressler.
In Kansas:
That is a statistical tie between Brownback (R) and Davis (D) and then only think that is really making it look like that is a FOX poll showing Brownback up by +6. The real gold standard here is SUSA, which shows Davis at +5, where he has been quite often.
Technically, it's a tie in one of the reddest states in the Union. But Roberts is being propped up by two Republican leaning pollsters. Orman is likely still in the lead here, which means that the GOP likely LOSES this seat.
Idaho:
The Otter +15.6 composite is, of course, smoke and mirrors. The polls from August and September no longer belong in there and the PPP poll is also misquoted.
Here the actual PPP data:
Idaho Governor s race close but Otter has room to grow - Public Policy Polling
PPP (D) shows Otter at only +3 over Balukoff, with a number of smaller party candidates also in the mix, taking 12% of the total pie. PPP also polled a purely 2-man race, which RCP decided to quote. Only, all of those smaller candidates (Bujak, Panky, Humble, Thomas) are indeed going to be on the ballot in November, so the 6 man race is the more accurate figure:
Idaho 2014 General Election
Now, on the presidential level, the Breadbasket and the Blue Sky states have been some of the most reliably ruby red states in the Union for a very, very long time. At the state level, KS has not had a Democratic governor in 80 years. Both Dakotas have a long history of split-ticket voters and are more than willing to send a Democrat to the Senate. But Idaho? Idaho is one of the three most red states in the Union, after Utah and Wyoming.
These kind of lean numbers in the breadbasket do not point to a GOP wave, at least in the breadbasket. And they provide the Democrats with a number of unexpected opportunities. However, most states tend to default to the party that has the most in voter registration and involvement, so I suspect that Otter will win re-election in ID (Gub) and Rounds is likely to prevail in SD, albeit it narrowly. But Kansas, now that may be one of the most interesting stories of election night. Get the popcorn out.
However, others are noticing this, and is actually started in 2012.
In 2012, Democratic senatorial candidate Heidi Heitkamp (D) narrowly beat out Republican Rick Berg + 0.90% while at the same time, Mitt Romney (R) trounced Pres. Obama in North Dakota by +19.63. Another little known fact is that MORE votes were cast in the ND 2012 Senatorial (330,851) than in the ND 2012 Presidential (322,627). Now, ND had not just one, but two Democratic Senators for quite a long time (Konrad and Dorgan, both elected in 1992), and with some substantial margins. But in 2010, Republican John Hoeven picked-up Dorgan's old seat (he retired) by an astounding +53.91% margin, possibly the largest winning margin in all of ND's history. And yet, two years later, a little known Democrat, in a year where an embattled Democratic president was on the ballot in a crimson red state, won in a tough battle.
Fast forward to 2014:
South Dakota, North Dakota's neighbor to the south:
Actually, Mike Rounds is doing worse than this, because the two September polls should long be out of the statistic by now. He is actually at +3.5 over Independent Pressler.
In Kansas:
That is a statistical tie between Brownback (R) and Davis (D) and then only think that is really making it look like that is a FOX poll showing Brownback up by +6. The real gold standard here is SUSA, which shows Davis at +5, where he has been quite often.
Technically, it's a tie in one of the reddest states in the Union. But Roberts is being propped up by two Republican leaning pollsters. Orman is likely still in the lead here, which means that the GOP likely LOSES this seat.
Idaho:
The Otter +15.6 composite is, of course, smoke and mirrors. The polls from August and September no longer belong in there and the PPP poll is also misquoted.
Here the actual PPP data:
Idaho Governor s race close but Otter has room to grow - Public Policy Polling
PPP (D) shows Otter at only +3 over Balukoff, with a number of smaller party candidates also in the mix, taking 12% of the total pie. PPP also polled a purely 2-man race, which RCP decided to quote. Only, all of those smaller candidates (Bujak, Panky, Humble, Thomas) are indeed going to be on the ballot in November, so the 6 man race is the more accurate figure:
Idaho 2014 General Election
Now, on the presidential level, the Breadbasket and the Blue Sky states have been some of the most reliably ruby red states in the Union for a very, very long time. At the state level, KS has not had a Democratic governor in 80 years. Both Dakotas have a long history of split-ticket voters and are more than willing to send a Democrat to the Senate. But Idaho? Idaho is one of the three most red states in the Union, after Utah and Wyoming.
These kind of lean numbers in the breadbasket do not point to a GOP wave, at least in the breadbasket. And they provide the Democrats with a number of unexpected opportunities. However, most states tend to default to the party that has the most in voter registration and involvement, so I suspect that Otter will win re-election in ID (Gub) and Rounds is likely to prevail in SD, albeit it narrowly. But Kansas, now that may be one of the most interesting stories of election night. Get the popcorn out.
