What level of Job Growth is needed to hold our own at 9.7%

Discussion in 'Economy' started by Neubarth, Apr 1, 2010.

  1. Neubarth
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    Neubarth At the Ballpark July 30th

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    To bring down the unemployment rate, the economy must add about 180,000 jobs each and every month to accommodate adult population growth, immigration, reentry of discouraged workers and marginally-occupied self-employed workers. Including the latter two groups, unemployment is closer to 27 percent than the Totally Bogus 9.7 percent mythical headline figure.

    Overall, the economy must add more than 18 - 19 million jobs to bring unemployment down to 6 percent by the end of 2013. With state and local governments facing tough financial constraints, the private sector must add at least that many jobs to accomplish the task.

    The likelihood of this happening is virtually nil.



    We can always hope, though. Right?
     
  2. Neubarth
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    Neubarth At the Ballpark July 30th

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    Payrolls Rise 162,000 in March, Unemployment Rate Steady at 9.7%- Reuters

    Employers added 162,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department said on Friday, leaving the unemployment rate steady at 9.7 percent for the third straight month. The payrolls increase was the largest since March 2007, and also reflected temporary hiring for the census. The gains are the highest that have been seen in three years.
    ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

    Now that is a step in the right direction. Notice how the 162,000 did not lower the Unemployment Rate?

    Now, I do not believe the Federal numbers, but I do believe the trend that the number suggests. My guess at 180,000 new jobs added per month would be about right to start biting into the Unemployment Bubble. Let's hope we can actually get to that point.
     
    Last edited: Apr 2, 2010
  3. pinqy
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    pinqy Gold Member

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    It's because the number of unemployed went up. Both employed and unemployed went up so while the numerator of unemployed went up slightly, the denominator of labor force went up as well, keeping things the same.

    Most of the increase in unemployed was from reentrants to the labor force and people quitting their jobs. Those both went up.
     
  4. Neubarth
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    Neubarth At the Ballpark July 30th

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    Alas, at last, we agree on something. I think I like you now. (For the moment.)
     

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