What Is Romney's Path To The Presidency? Can Anyone Answer That?

[MarcATL]

All these polls are based on the National numbers.

However, in the Swing States...Romney's behind.

Over & above all these polls...Romney has no clear path to the Presidency.

He HAS to clean up ALL the Swing States to make it to the 271 threshold.

Seriously folks...what's the likelihood of that happening?

Basically...if Romney loses Ohio...he's toast. TOAST I sed.


lol

 

[Mr. Shaman]

What Is Romney's Path To The Presidency? Can Anyone Answer That?

I think he needs to reset his course.....

 

[MarcATL]

What Is Romney's Path To The Presidency? Can Anyone Answer That?

I think he needs to reset his course.....

ROTFLMBAO!!!!

 

[MarcATL]

No conservatives or even self-proclaimed Conservatives can answer this question huh?

....Interesting.

 

[MarcATL]

So is it safe to say that the righties are hanging their hat and all their RW hopes and dreams on some trumped up Gallup and Rasmussen polls!?!?!

Say it ain't so!!!


lol

 

[MarcATL]

 

[Procrustes Stretched]

All these polls are based on the National numbers.

However, in the Swing States...Romney's behind.

Over & above all these polls...Romney has no clear path to the Presidency.

He HAS to clean up ALL the Swing States to make it to the 271 threshold.

Seriously folks...what's the likelihood of that happening?

Basically...if Romney loses Ohio...he's toast. TOAST I sed.


lol

Cassidy's Count: Obama's Electoral College Firewall Is Just Holding : The New Yorker

Cassidy's Count: More Alarm Bells for Obama : The New Yorker

interesting with explanations of why

 

[Procrustes Stretched]

No conservatives or even self-proclaimed Conservatives can answer this question huh?

....Interesting.

You can't break through their HOPE and magical thinking.

Romney is now running on -- gulp -- change and hope.

 

[PredFan]

No conservatives or even self-proclaimed Conservatives can answer this question huh?

....Interesting.

Nah, it's just that no one gives a shit about your nut job rantings.

 

[Procrustes Stretched]

No conservatives or even self-proclaimed Conservatives can answer this question huh?

....Interesting.

Nah, it's just that no one gives a shit about your nut job rantings.

yet in your bitterness you can't help responding.

Hey Marc, way to go buddy!

 

[MarcATL]

No conservatives or even self-proclaimed Conservatives can answer this question huh?

....Interesting.

Nah, it's just that no one gives a shit about your nut job rantings.

yet in your bitterness you can't help responding.

Hey Marc, way to go buddy!

LoLing...I know...right!!!

 

[Sarg]

Possible that people aren't posting in here because there's already a couple of threads on electoral college.

The quick summary is this:

Unquestioned Romney EVs - 191 (leaving 79 necessary to win outright)
North Carolina - 15 EV - Obama campaign only mentions this state when the media reports on how they're pulling resources out and they trot out the requisite "we're not pulling out of anywhere" card. - leaving 64 necessary for Romney win
Florida - 29 EV - Only one out of 10 polls in the last two weeks shows an Obama lead, and that was +1 - leaving 35 necessary for win

---- Here's where things get a bit tougher ----

Virginia - 13 - No poll since Oct 9th has not had Romney winning. However, the margins are small enough that Obama has at least faint hope to win on turnout - leaving 22 necessary to win
Colorado - 9 - Averages have Romney +0.4 in the state, obviously a close race, but certainly not one the Obama camp can feel good about - leaving 13 to win

So this is what it boils down to for Romney. Take all the states he leads in, plus some combination of 12 or more EVs for a tie or 13 for outright win. He wins the 269-269 tie in the House.

Romney's instant win states for those 12/13 EVs is:
Ohio (18)
Penn (20)
Michigan (16)

He also can lose all three of those and win any combination adding up to 12+:
Wisconsin (10) + any state (New Hampshire, Iowa, Nevada are the obvious choices)
Minnesota (10) + New Hampshire (4) - Minny is a long shot, but only Obama +5 in most recent poll
Iowa (6) + Nevada (6) - produces a tie, which Romney wins in House. Or he can win outright with the 2nd district of Maine (+1 EV)

With polling showing Romney starting to lead in New Hampshire, Wisconsin may soon join OH, PA and MI on Romney's insta-win list. I still need to see a third NH poll with a Romney lead to say that, however. Two polls aren't enough to call that a lead just yet.

 

[MarcATL]

Possible that people aren't posting in here because there's already a couple of threads on electoral college.

The quick summary is this:

Unquestioned Romney EVs - 191 (leaving 79 necessary to win outright)
North Carolina - 15 EV - Obama campaign only mentions this state when the media reports on how they're pulling resources out and they trot out the requisite "we're not pulling out of anywhere" card. - leaving 64 necessary for Romney win
Florida - 29 EV - Only one out of 10 polls in the last two weeks shows an Obama lead, and that was +1 - leaving 35 necessary for win

---- Here's where things get a bit tougher ----

Virginia - 13 - No poll since Oct 9th has not had Romney winning. However, the margins are small enough that Obama has at least faint hope to win on turnout - leaving 22 necessary to win
Colorado - 9 - Averages have Romney +0.4 in the state, obviously a close race, but certainly not one the Obama camp can feel good about - leaving 13 to win

So this is what it boils down to for Romney. Take all the states he leads in, plus some combination of 12 or more EVs for a tie or 13 for outright win. He wins the 269-269 tie in the House.

Romney's instant win states for those 12/13 EVs is:
Ohio (18)
Penn (20)
Michigan (16)

He also can lose all three of those and win any combination adding up to 12+:
Wisconsin (10) + any state (New Hampshire, Iowa, Nevada are the obvious choices)
Minnesota (10) + New Hampshire (4) - Minny is a long shot, but only Obama +5 in most recent poll
Iowa (6) + Nevada (6) - produces a tie, which Romney wins in House. Or he can win outright with the 2nd district of Maine (+1 EV)

With polling showing Romney starting to lead in New Hampshire, Wisconsin may soon join OH, PA and MI on Romney's insta-win list. I still need to see a third NH poll with a Romney lead to say that, however. Two polls aren't enough to call that a lead just yet.

So is it safe to contend that you believe Romney has a clear path to the Presidency then?

 

[Procrustes Stretched]

Possible that people aren't posting in here because there's already a couple of threads on electoral college.

The quick summary is this:

Unquestioned Romney EVs - 191 (leaving 79 necessary to win outright)
North Carolina - 15 EV - Obama campaign only mentions this state when the media reports on how they're pulling resources out and they trot out the requisite "we're not pulling out of anywhere" card. - leaving 64 necessary for Romney win
Florida - 29 EV - Only one out of 10 polls in the last two weeks shows an Obama lead, and that was +1 - leaving 35 necessary for win

---- Here's where things get a bit tougher ----

Virginia - 13 - No poll since Oct 9th has not had Romney winning. However, the margins are small enough that Obama has at least faint hope to win on turnout - leaving 22 necessary to win
Colorado - 9 - Averages have Romney +0.4 in the state, obviously a close race, but certainly not one the Obama camp can feel good about - leaving 13 to win

So this is what it boils down to for Romney. Take all the states he leads in, plus some combination of 12 or more EVs for a tie or 13 for outright win. He wins the 269-269 tie in the House.

Romney's instant win states for those 12/13 EVs is:
Ohio (18)
Penn (20)
Michigan (16)

He also can lose all three of those and win any combination adding up to 12+:
Wisconsin (10) + any state (New Hampshire, Iowa, Nevada are the obvious choices)
Minnesota (10) + New Hampshire (4) - Minny is a long shot, but only Obama +5 in most recent poll
Iowa (6) + Nevada (6) - produces a tie, which Romney wins in House. Or he can win outright with the 2nd district of Maine (+1 EV)

With polling showing Romney starting to lead in New Hampshire, Wisconsin may soon join OH, PA and MI on Romney's insta-win list. I still need to see a third NH poll with a Romney lead to say that, however. Two polls aren't enough to call that a lead just yet.

Bullshit Alert!!!!

 

[Procrustes Stretched]

Nah, it's just that no one gives a shit about your nut job rantings.

yet in your bitterness you can't help responding.

Hey Marc, way to go buddy!

LoLing...I know...right!!!

I love kicking a wingnut when they're down

 

[Procrustes Stretched]

Cassidy's Count: More Alarm Bells for Obama : The New Yorker

Clearly, Romney has some momentum. For a number of reasons, though, I still regard Obama as the favorite.

1) Despite all the ground Romney has made up in the past couple of weeks, most of the polls continue to show him trailing the President. Of fourteen polls carried out since the first Presidential debate, eleven had Obama ahead. Of five polls carried out in the past week, Obama was ahead in four of them. And in all of this surveying, nobody has shown Romney with a bigger lead than one point. On Sunday night, the Real Clear Politics poll-of-polls, which averages all the major surveys, still showed Obama about two points ahead of his challenger.

2) One of the new polls...

3) Obama has a superior ground operation, which has helped him establish a big lead among early voters. As many as one in five of the Ohioans likely to vote have already filled out their ballots. According to the P.P.P. poll, Obama is leading among this group by virtually two-to-one: 66-34 . That doesn’t mean Romney can’t still win. But in order to close the gap, he would have to run up about a seven point margin amongst voters who have still to vote. The P.P.P. poll actually suggests that he has such a lead—52-44—but, as the firm noted, “obviously it’s easier to count on votes that are already in the bank.”

4) A Fox News poll that was released late on Friday, which was also carried out after the second debate, showed the President up by three points: 46-43....

From the perspective of the President and his supporters, all of these things offer some reassurance. For now, I am keeping Ohio in the leaning Obama column. Still, there’s no doubt things are getting tight—unnervingly tight.

Monday morning update: More evidence that Obama is still ahead in Ohio: a new poll of likely voters from CBS News/Quinnipiac University shows him enjoying a five-point lead—50-45. Obviously, that’s a bigger margin than other polls are showing: in fact, it’s the first survey for some time to show Obama with a lead larger than the statistical margin of error. A word of warning, though: this is a poll with a history of showing Obama well ahead. In late September, it had him up by ten points. Since then, his lead has been cut in half. The poll does confirm two findings from other polls. Obama is well ahead among early voters: 54-39. And independents are breaking to Romney: in this group, the challenger leads 49-42.

Read more Cassidy's Count: More Alarm Bells for Obama : The New Yorker

 

[Sarg]

So is it safe to contend that you believe Romney has a clear path to the Presidency then?

Even Obama's campaign staff agrees Romney has a clear path to the Presidency. They say things like "he can't win, because we'll hold Ohio, Iowa, Nevada and New Hampshire".

Which is approximately true, assuming they also hold Pennsylvania, Michigan and Minnesota, which they have a pretty good chance of doing (75% ish as things stand). However, just by naming those four states, they're acknowledging that Romney CAN win if they drop any of them.

 

[Interpol]

Possible that people aren't posting in here because there's already a couple of threads on electoral college.

The quick summary is this:

Unquestioned Romney EVs - 191 (leaving 79 necessary to win outright)
North Carolina - 15 EV - Obama campaign only mentions this state when the media reports on how they're pulling resources out and they trot out the requisite "we're not pulling out of anywhere" card. - leaving 64 necessary for Romney win
Florida - 29 EV - Only one out of 10 polls in the last two weeks shows an Obama lead, and that was +1 - leaving 35 necessary for win

---- Here's where things get a bit tougher ----

Virginia - 13 - No poll since Oct 9th has not had Romney winning. However, the margins are small enough that Obama has at least faint hope to win on turnout - leaving 22 necessary to win
Colorado - 9 - Averages have Romney +0.4 in the state, obviously a close race, but certainly not one the Obama camp can feel good about - leaving 13 to win

So this is what it boils down to for Romney. Take all the states he leads in, plus some combination of 12 or more EVs for a tie or 13 for outright win. He wins the 269-269 tie in the House.

Romney's instant win states for those 12/13 EVs is:
Ohio (18)
Penn (20)
Michigan (16)

He also can lose all three of those and win any combination adding up to 12+:
Wisconsin (10) + any state (New Hampshire, Iowa, Nevada are the obvious choices)
Minnesota (10) + New Hampshire (4) - Minny is a long shot, but only Obama +5 in most recent poll
Iowa (6) + Nevada (6) - produces a tie, which Romney wins in House. Or he can win outright with the 2nd district of Maine (+1 EV)

With polling showing Romney starting to lead in New Hampshire, Wisconsin may soon join OH, PA and MI on Romney's insta-win list. I still need to see a third NH poll with a Romney lead to say that, however. Two polls aren't enough to call that a lead just yet.

I couldn't have said that better myself.

I think it's easier for Obama to win WI than it is for Romney to win FL, so I've thrown WI in the Obama pile. MN too.

Romney must win FL, NC and VA to stay in the game. Up to that point I have Romney at 192 (I've given him the one Maine district). With FL, NC and VA, Romney is up to 249, Obama's at 246.

I've got NV (6), CO (9), IO (6), OH (18) and NH (4) left.

If Romney pulls out OH and anywhere else, he wins.

If he can pull out NV, CO and IO, he can win without OH.

NV and IO remain in Obama's firewall though, so we'd need to start seeing some momentum for Romney in those states.

My prediction holds with Obama taking OH, IO and NV, beating Romney 280-258.

Or, 281-257 with Romney not being able to take the one Maine district.

Romney had momentum for two weeks after the first debate, but it has stopped. He peaked almost a week ago. If there was a wave happening, we'd see it, but there isn't. So it's all ground game now, with Obama clinging to a very slight advantage.

In 2000, Al Gore took the popular vote by .5%; George W. Bush took the popular vote by about 2.5% in 2004.

Looks like it's going to be right in the middle of that this time, making for an exciting election night.

Obama took the game at the strike of 11 pm last time. This time, when the 11 o'clock hour strikes, CA, OR, and WA will cause Obama to surge past Romney, who should have a bit of a lead up to that point, and put Obama in the 240's, with Romney somewhere around 180-190 at that point, assuming that AZ and MO have already been called.

After that, it's anyone's guess as to how long the final call will be made. I'm thinking we might not officially know until Wednesday.

 

[MarcATL]

So is it safe to contend that you believe Romney has a clear path to the Presidency then?

Even Obama's campaign staff agrees Romney has a clear path to the Presidency. They say things like "he can't win, because we'll hold Ohio, Iowa, Nevada and New Hampshire".

Which is approximately true, assuming they also hold Pennsylvania, Michigan and Minnesota, which they have a pretty good chance of doing (75% ish as things stand). However, just by naming those four states, they're acknowledging that Romney CAN win if they drop any of them.

Right, I agree.

However, you will note that in my OP I stated that Romney will have to make a clean sweep to win.

I don't see that as very likely at all.

I said that from the very beginning.

I live, and I try to stay in the real world. That being said, I don't see a REALISTIC expectation of Romney winning under these circumstances.

By next week this time we'll see what the numbers look like and have a clearer picture of what the outlook looks like. I predict things will look more grim for Romney by then.

With all these radicals waging war on women and such...I mean, the Republicans can't stop digging.

 

[Procrustes Stretched]

So is it safe to contend that you believe Romney has a clear path to the Presidency then?

Even Obama's campaign staff agrees Romney has a clear path to the Presidency. They say things like "he can't win, because we'll hold Ohio, Iowa, Nevada and New Hampshire".

Which is approximately true, assuming they also hold Pennsylvania, Michigan and Minnesota, which they have a pretty good chance of doing (75% ish as things stand). However, just by naming those four states, they're acknowledging that Romney CAN win if they drop any of them.

a possible path if things go a certain way. too many ifs.. too little time


too little too late for Romney. think Kerry 2004