UPI poll finds 79% support for Obama

[Article 15]

ROFLMNAO... yeah... that's right. Of course someone HAD to get it right... at least in hind sight, given that the polls were everywhere.

I've never even HEARD of 538.com, but I only spend 18 hours a day, 7 days a week on this crap; but it doesn't surprise me that they got it right...

I get the pool right at LEAST twice a season... and every 4th or 5th superbowl I AM KING!

Neither site we individual polling sites. RCP took the average of all the major polls to come up with their projection and Nate Silver at 538 used his sabermetrics expertise to create his own projection system.

I highly doubt you spend 18 hours a day, 7 day a week working with statistical analysis of polling data and can somehow claim not already be privy to this information.

I suspect you are full of it ... as usual.

Well all that serves reason...

First I never claimed to spend 18 hows a day working stat analysis, that's a projection you sought to apply and what idiots suspect isn't really worth the bother, now is it?

Fact is, anyone's stats can be right at any time... the trick is getting it right at the right time and if this obscure statician did so... Bully for them. Bottom line is the polls were for the most part wrong on the election as they usually are; and the reason is that MOST media polling is designed to DRIVE public opinion, not sample it.

Then what exactly do you do that involves, "spend(ing) 18 hours a day, 7 days a week on this crap (polls)?"

On your latter point, I agree that most polls were "wrong" or just not accurate depending on how you look at it because up until November 4th most polls had Obama winning handily which he did. I also agree that they are primarily designed to drive public opinion, not sample it. I disagree, however, that a statistician like Nate Silver getting it right is a matter of chance, which is what you are implying. Go check out his site.

 

[PubliusInfinitum]

I can't beleive how stupid he could be to release TOP SECRET information on the interogation techniques against the advise of 4 former CIA directors and his current one at this time during his presidency. He very well could have turned himself into a lame duck for the next 3 years. How stupid!!!

This could derail any agenda he has because of the in fighting that is bound to occur over this, he looks weak and a weak President can't get the support he needs. His own party will want to distance themselves from him and not support his agenda. The guy just keeps stepping in his own stuff.

Well once one comes to recognize that the agenda is to undermine the US GWOT, then it all serves reason perfectly.

The confusion lies in trying to sum the problem from the perspective wherein it is not reasonable to believe that the President of the US is determined to undermine US security... You see, from that perspective, one is strapped with trying to apply reason to an unreasonable situation; which will lead one directly to madness.

President Hussein is a Leftist of the Radical variety... that he is touching peters with leftist despots and releasing sensitive US intelligence to our enemies is not a function of a higher intellect whose implementing an ingenius strategy towards convincing them that the US means them no harm; that the US is their ally in commerce and security... it's MUCH more simple than that, as it always is... The President of the US is one of them; meaning that he is decidedly not with us...

We've been setup, we've allowed the children to run the school and we're about to be subject to the high cost of low standards.

Brace yourself, 'cause this one's gonna hurt.

 

[Article 15]

the reason is that MOST media polling is designed to DRIVE public opinion, not sample it.

thats it exactly

I feel like I spent half of the election season telling you that RCP and 538 were pretty much spot on in their analysis of the polls.

 

[jillian]

the reason is that MOST media polling is designed to DRIVE public opinion, not sample it.

thats it exactly

I feel like I spent half of the election season telling you that RCP and 538 were pretty much spot on in their analysis of the polls.

but that didn't tell them what they wanted...

 

[PubliusInfinitum]

Neither site we individual polling sites. RCP took the average of all the major polls to come up with their projection and Nate Silver at 538 used his sabermetrics expertise to create his own projection system.

I highly doubt you spend 18 hours a day, 7 day a week working with statistical analysis of polling data and can somehow claim not already be privy to this information.

I suspect you are full of it ... as usual.

Well all that serves reason...

First I never claimed to spend 18 hows a day working stat analysis, that's a projection you sought to apply and what idiots suspect isn't really worth the bother, now is it?

Fact is, anyone's stats can be right at any time... the trick is getting it right at the right time and if this obscure statician did so... Bully for them. Bottom line is the polls were for the most part wrong on the election as they usually are; and the reason is that MOST media polling is designed to DRIVE public opinion, not sample it.

Then what exactly do you do that involves, "spend(ing) 18 hours a day, 7 days a week on this crap (polls)?"

Well THERE'S your problem... erroneous knee-jerk inference of the context... (Politics; not polls)...

On your latter point, I agree that most polls were "wrong" or just not accurate depending on how you look at it because up until November 4th most polls had Obama winning handily which he did. I also agree that they are primarily designed to drive public opinion, not sample it. I disagree, however, that a statistician like Nate Silver getting it right is a matter of chance, which is what you are implying. Go check out his site.

Well I'm sure the good Mr. Silver would disagree... if he's as bright as ya say he is. Prediction through statistical analysis deals with, at its essence, the odds of probability, increasing and decreasing as the data ebbs and flows from reliabillity... thus, while a good statician can lessen or improve his chances... through carefull analysis of well chosen data, at the end of the day, it still remains a crap shoot. Of course any decent shooter of craps will tell you that... as will any good spewer of crap; which are two catagories which are almost always indistinguishable.

 

[DiveCon]

the reason is that MOST media polling is designed to DRIVE public opinion, not sample it.

thats it exactly

I feel like I spent half of the election season telling you that RCP and 538 were pretty much spot on in their analysis of the polls.

i dont recall that

 

[DiveCon]

thats it exactly

I feel like I spent half of the election season telling you that RCP and 538 were pretty much spot on in their analysis of the polls.

but that didn't tell them what they wanted...

i dont put my trust in polls
so how could they ever tell me what i wanted?
you clearly have mistaken me for someone that trusts and believes in polls

 

[Article 15]

I feel like I spent half of the election season telling you that RCP and 538 were pretty much spot on in their analysis of the polls.

but that didn't tell them what they wanted...

i dont put my trust in polls
so how could they ever tell me what i wanted?
you clearly have mistaken me for someone that trusts and believes in polls

That's exactly the position you took all election season. Your position while I was touting the RCP average and 538 was that you didn't trust the polls. You were very consistent about it.

 

[DiveCon]

but that didn't tell them what they wanted...

i dont put my trust in polls
so how could they ever tell me what i wanted?
you clearly have mistaken me for someone that trusts and believes in polls

That's exactly the position you took all election season. Your position while I was touting the RCP average and 538 was that you didn't trust the polls. You were very consistent about it.

exactly
but i wasnt one saying i trusted polls
LOL
i'm STILL saying that

 

[Article 15]

Well all that serves reason...

First I never claimed to spend 18 hows a day working stat analysis, that's a projection you sought to apply and what idiots suspect isn't really worth the bother, now is it?

Fact is, anyone's stats can be right at any time... the trick is getting it right at the right time and if this obscure statician did so... Bully for them. Bottom line is the polls were for the most part wrong on the election as they usually are; and the reason is that MOST media polling is designed to DRIVE public opinion, not sample it.

Then what exactly do you do that involves, "spend(ing) 18 hours a day, 7 days a week on this crap (polls)?"

Well THERE'S your problem... erroneous knee-jerk inference of the context... (Politics; not polls)...

On your latter point, I agree that most polls were "wrong" or just not accurate depending on how you look at it because up until November 4th most polls had Obama winning handily which he did. I also agree that they are primarily designed to drive public opinion, not sample it. I disagree, however, that a statistician like Nate Silver getting it right is a matter of chance, which is what you are implying. Go check out his site.

Well I'm sure the good Mr. Silver would disagree... if he's as bright as ya say he is. Prediction through statistical analysis deals with, at its essence, the odds of probability, increasing and decreasing as the data ebbs and flows from reliabillity... thus, while a good statician can lessen or improve his chances... through carefull analysis of well chosen data, at the end of the day, it still remains a crap shoot. Of course any decent shooter of craps will tell you that... as will any good spewer of crap; which are two catagories which are almost always indistinguishable.

Ok, I follow what you are saying and you do have a point ... it isn't a perfect science.

 

[Article 15]

i dont put my trust in polls
so how could they ever tell me what i wanted?
you clearly have mistaken me for someone that trusts and believes in polls

That's exactly the position you took all election season. Your position while I was touting the RCP average and 538 was that you didn't trust the polls. You were very consistent about it.

exactly
but i wasnt one saying i trusted polls
LOL
i'm STILL saying that

I know. I never said you that you trusted the polls.

 

[Sinatra]

That's exactly the position you took all election season. Your position while I was touting the RCP average and 538 was that you didn't trust the polls. You were very consistent about it.

exactly
but i wasnt one saying i trusted polls
LOL
i'm STILL saying that

I know. I never said you that you trusted the polls.

 

[Article 15]

exactly
but i wasnt one saying i trusted polls
LOL
i'm STILL saying that

I know. I never said you that you trusted the polls.

Phil: Hey, did you guys go to the Gasworks on Friday night?
Wayne Campbell: [Referring to him and Phil as well] Yeah, we were there.
Phil: There was this band, 'Crucial Taunt'. They had this mega-babe for a lead singer, unreal.
Wayne Campbell: Phil, we were there. Have you gone mental? Hello!

 

[Sinatra]

I know. I never said you that you trusted the polls.

Phil: Hey, did you guys go to the Gasworks on Friday night?
Wayne Campbell: [Referring to him and Phil as well] Yeah, we were there.
Phil: There was this band, 'Crucial Taunt'. They had this mega-babe for a lead singer, unreal.
Wayne Campbell: Phil, we were there. Have you gone mental? Hello!

Schwing???

 

[Article 15]

She's magically babelicious.

 

[007]

One third of Americans believe in ghosts


By Lester Haines • Get more from this author

Posted in Bootnotes, 14th July 2005 14:15 GMT


A Gallup poll has revealed that 32 per cent of all adult Americans believe in ghosts. Nineteen per cent aren't so sure, while a level-headed 48 per cent dismissed the idea outright.

One third of Americans believe in ghosts • The Register

Wednesday nights... SciFi Channel... Ghost Hunters... wouldn't miss it.

This Wednesday is going to be the season finale. Ought to be really good.

I believe in ghosts more than I believe in oblahma.

Yeah...I never miss Ghost Hunters. There is some strange stuff out there, that can't be explained away.

I find it peculiar how someone can believe in ghosts but not a God. The spirit realm is real, whether people have had an experience with it or not, it's there, and so can there be a God there. You're a fool if you think not.

 

[Sinatra]

Wednesday nights... SciFi Channel... Ghost Hunters... wouldn't miss it.

This Wednesday is going to be the season finale. Ought to be really good.

I believe in ghosts more than I believe in oblahma.

Yeah...I never miss Ghost Hunters. There is some strange stuff out there, that can't be explained away.

I find it peculiar how someone can believe in ghosts but not a God. The spirit realm is real, whether people have had an experience with it or not, it's there, and so can there be a God there. You're a fool if you think not.

I actually knew a grad student who was an atheist Satan worshiper.

I never really figured that one out.

He was a very awkward sort, much like other atheists.

And liberals...

 

[Sinatra]

She's magically babelicious.

Remarkable.

By your repeated tone in here I was certain you were into dudes...

 

[Article 15]

She's magically babelicious.

Remarkable.

By your repeated tone in here I was certain you were into dudes...

Nah, man. I'm for gay rights and all but I'm not down with the cock and balls.

 

[007]

Yeah...I never miss Ghost Hunters. There is some strange stuff out there, that can't be explained away.

I find it peculiar how someone can believe in ghosts but not a God. The spirit realm is real, whether people have had an experience with it or not, it's there, and so can there be a God there. You're a fool if you think not.

I actually knew a grad student who was an atheist Satan worshiper.

I never really figured that one out.

He was a very awkward sort, much like other atheists.

And liberals...

There is no good without evil. There is no day without night. There is NO GOD without a GOD.

People are shallow. I've not only witnessed a miracle which I attribute to God by means of prayer, but I've VIDEOED an apparition, and have it right here on my computer.

People tend to ridicule and jest at what they can't explain, not to mention it scares them.