Update from 538

[DavidS]

FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right

We already discussed the Big Ten and Quinnipiac polls, which are exceptionally strong for Obama across the board. But those aren't the only places where he's putting up some intimidating numbers. National Journal and SurveyUSA join Big Ten and Quinnipiac in giving Obama a double-digit lead in Pennsylvania, as does the Morning Call tracker. The Schroth Eldon & Associates poll for the Miami Herald and St. Pete Times in Florida, which has a fairly good reputation, puts him ahead by 7 in the Sunshine State. SurveyUSA now gives him a lead in Indiana, joining PPP and Big Ten; Indiana has turned blue on our map.

Obama even leads in Montana, a state which his campaign has never disengaged from, according to an MSU-Billings poll. Importantly, the MSU poll mentioned Ron Paul by name, who is on the ballot in Montana. He drew 4 percent of the vote, the precise difference between Obama and McCain. Furthermore, Obama's strong results in deep red states like Montana and Indiana lead our model to conclude that North Dakota may in fact be in play, as well as two of Nebraska's three congressional districts. If the election were held today, the Obama campaign might very well sweep every state on their target list.

To find good news for McCain, you have to go South -- to the deep South -- where new polling in Arkansas, Texas, and Louisiana suggests that those states have yet to become competitive.

As a result of all of this, there is now no perceptible rebound for John McCain; in fact, the race may still be trending toward Obama, although the safer assumption is that it's flat. Meanwhile, Obama's electoral position appears as strong as ever. John McCain's chances of winning the election have dwindled to 3.7%, down from 6.5% yesterday.

 

[elvis]

FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right

more polls generous to the Messiah

 

[Red Dawn]

Clearly, these are liberal-biased polls.

I'm sure paperboy is desperately searching Drudge right now for the one poll that shows only a four point lead.

 

[elvis]

Clearly, these are liberal-biased polls.

I'm sure paperboy is desperately searching Drudge right now for the one poll that shows only a four point lead.

exactly. it's not fair to have this poll posted when paperboy isn't here to counteract it. it's all about balance.

 

[DavidS]

exactly. it's not fair to have this poll posted when paperboy isn't here to counteract it. it's all about balance.

It's... it's... it's not a poll, Elvis. Your ignorance is beginning to show. It's a summary of ALL of the polls. Now, I'm not on here showing how the latest CBS/NYTimes poll has 13+ for Obama, we're talking about a whole SLEW of new polls done in the past week in different states that show Obama ahead. It's not one poll, it's a bunch of polls. Go look for yourself, Elvis.

I went into the TIPP poll and I showed you what they're doing wrong. Go to the Big Ten polls, go to Qunnipeac polls and show me what you disagree with in their polling methods that show Indiana, North Dakota, and Montana to be in play for Obama.

Dick Morris, that fat piece of shit, even said today that if the polls don't start contracting for McCain by Tuesday/Wednesday of next week, it's over for him and it'll be a landslide for Obama.

 

[Toro]

It's... it's... it's not a poll, Elvis. Your ignorance is beginning to show. It's a summary of ALL of the polls. Now, I'm not on here showing how the latest CBS/NYTimes poll has 13+ for Obama, we're talking about a whole SLEW of new polls done in the past week in different states that show Obama ahead. It's not one poll, it's a bunch of polls. Go look for yourself, Elvis.

They were being sarcastic, weren't they?

Surely...

 

[DavidS]

They were being sarcastic, weren't they?

Surely...

When it comes to Elvis, I dunno. The conservatives on this board confound me. Crimson I like, he gives rational, clear explanations to his ideas. Del is cool, and I can tolerate dilloduck. Sarge is just one of those loose cannon Vietnam Vets... he's really angry and he responds to every single post with anger and will insult you at every opportunity he gets. Elvis... I can't get a read on Elvis.

 

[Toro]

Well, liberals or conservatives, it doesn't matter to me because I agree with both, depending on the issue.

But to say that most of the polls are systematically biased isn't particularly intelligent.

 

[DavidS]

Well, liberals or conservatives, it doesn't matter to me because I agree with both, depending on the issue.

But to say that most of the polls are systematically biased isn't particularly intelligent.

I wonder why the Republicans didn't complain about liberal media bias in 2004 when both Newsweek and the NYT showed Bush ahead by 4. I wonder why they didn't say "Don't trust the polls!" in 2004 when all of them showed Bush winning. I remember Zogby being a frequent guest on the Hannity show right after the RNC bounce for McCain. I wonder why he isn't invited anymore.

 

[elvis]

It's... it's... it's not a poll, Elvis. Your ignorance is beginning to show. It's a summary of ALL of the polls. Now, I'm not on here showing how the latest CBS/NYTimes poll has 13+ for Obama, we're talking about a whole SLEW of new polls done in the past week in different states that show Obama ahead. It's not one poll, it's a bunch of polls. Go look for yourself, Elvis.

I went into the TIPP poll and I showed you what they're doing wrong. Go to the Big Ten polls, go to Qunnipeac polls and show me what you disagree with in their polling methods that show Indiana, North Dakota, and Montana to be in play for Obama.

Dick Morris, that fat piece of shit, even said today that if the polls don't start contracting for McCain by Tuesday/Wednesday of next week, it's over for him and it'll be a landslide for Obama.

Ignorance? NO. I didn't even look at it because I figured it was just one more poll that was favorable for Obama. I am sure you had no problem with TIPP when they had Obama up by seven a few weeks ago. here is a summary of all the polls from New Hampshire. Ask Hillary clinton if she believes the polls.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - New Hampshire Democratic Primary

 

[CrimsonWhite]

Ignorance? NO. I didn't even look at it because I figured it was just one more poll that was favorable for Obama. I am sure you had no problem with TIPP when they had Obama up by seven a few weeks ago. here is a summary of all the polls from New Hampshire. Ask Hillary clinton if she believes the polls.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - New Hampshire Democratic Primary

Bradley Effect. Ain't it a bitch?

 

[Chris]

Bradley Effect. Ain't it a bitch?

The Obama Effect.

McCain will be stomped like a rat in the closet.

 

[sparky]

not if there's a Diebold effect....

 

[DavidS]

Ignorance? NO. I didn't even look at it because I figured it was just one more poll that was favorable for Obama. I am sure you had no problem with TIPP when they had Obama up by seven a few weeks ago.

TIPP wasn't up "a few weeks ago." They're only up 10 days or so. When a poll is in line with the trend, I don't question it. Many other polls had Obama around 5, 6 or 7. But then they started to go around 1 or 2. So I looked at it and the model in which they determine who is a likely voter is completely off and not in line with every single other poll being conducted right now. Even FOXNEWS' poll is showing Obama up by 9.

here is a summary of all the polls from New Hampshire. Ask Hillary clinton if she believes the polls.

What about every single other poll this primary that was actually right???? Cherry picking polls because they favor your candidate is hilarious.

 

[DavidS]

Bradley Effect. Ain't it a bitch?

Look at the Bradley effect all over the country... so bad that it got Obama nominated.

 

[BlackAsCoal]

not if there's a Diebold effect....

BINGO !!!

However, they can only pull the magic trick if the election is close.