Two Cruise Ship Cases Prove that COVID-19 Is Not Even Close to Being 100% Contagious

[Harpy Eagle]

Here is some very encouraging news: The cases of two cruise ships prove that COVID-19 is not even close to being 100% contagious. In other words, if you come into contact with an infected person, this does *not* mean you will automatically catch the virus. The cruise ships were the Diamond Princess and the Grand Princess. Well below 50% of the people on those ships caught the virus, even though they were exposed to the virus in a relatively small, confined area.

In the case of the Diamond Princess, 712 out of 3,711 people in the confined environment of the cruise ship caught the virus. That means that only 19.2% of the people who came into contact with the virus caught the virus.

But, let's assume, just for the sake of argument, that half of the Diamond Princess passengers somehow never had contact with any infected persons. That would mean that 712 out of 1850 passengers who were exposed to the virus caught the virus. That would still be a contraction rate of well below 50% (38.5%, to be exact).

Also, among the 712 passengers who caught the virus, 331, or 46.5%, had experienced no symptoms as of the time they were tested. Furthermore, only 9.7% of those who experienced symptoms required intensive care.

As for deaths among the 712 Diamond Princess passengers who caught the virus, some sources say that 8 people died. The CDC says that 9 people died. 8 deaths out of 712 is a death rate of 1.125%, or a 98.875% survival rate. If 9 people died, 9 deaths out of 712 cases is death rate of 1.3%, or a 98.7% survival rate.

In the case of the Grand Princess, there were 1,179 people on board (1,111 passengers and 68 crew members). As far as the CDC can determine, 119 people on the Grand Princess caught the virus. If 119 of the 1,179 people on the Grand Princess caught the virus, that means that only 10.1% of the people who were exposed to the virus caught the virus.

Even if we assume that 70% of the people on the Grand Princess somehow never came into contact with any infected persons, that would still mean that only 119 out of 825 people who were exposed to the virus caught the virus, which would be a contraction rate of only 14.5%.

As for deaths on the Grand Princess, as far as the CDC can determine, only 1 of the 119 people who caught the virus died from it. 1 death out of 119 cases is a death rate of 0.842%, or less than 1%, or a 99.158% survival rate.

Here is the CDC report on the Diamond Princess and Grand Princess cases:

Public Health Responses to COVID-19 Outbreaks on Cruise Ships...

More than 800 cases of laboratory-confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 cases occurred during outbreaks on three cruise ship voyages, and cases linked to several additional cruises have been reported...

www.cdc.gov

Has anyone ever claimed it was 100% contagious?

We knew the contagion rate was in the 10-15% region for three months now.. Only the hype from CNN and MSDNC was claiming it was higher.

I never watch those, so do you have some links of them claiming it was higher?

 

[Sun Devil 92]

Next year's Darwin awards may be given out to the American right who decided to sacrifice it's weaker members for the sake of the economy.

Keep yapping.

Somebody might actually take you seriously.

Being a Trump supporter will certainly end up being a measurable risk factor of dying of this disease. I saw the Trumpbots at our local hardware store still shaking hands, still talking close. Seems they are congregating there since it's still open. I had to go get something for the house and there they were, about a dozen of them standing inside the door chit-chatting. Bunch of middle-aged men with nothing better to do than to flirt with death. I live in a really small town, I know these men, I do not want to see them get sick but it will be difficult to have any pity for them if they do.

Keep yapping.

I got about four words into it and thought....why bother.

So I didn't.

 

[colfax_m]

Here is some very encouraging news: The cases of two cruise ships prove that COVID-19 is not even close to being 100% contagious. In other words, if you come into contact with an infected person, this does *not* mean you will automatically catch the virus. The cruise ships were the Diamond Princess and the Grand Princess. Well below 50% of the people on those ships caught the virus, even though they were exposed to the virus in a relatively small, confined area.

In the case of the Diamond Princess, 712 out of 3,711 people in the confined environment of the cruise ship caught the virus. That means that only 19.2% of the people who came into contact with the virus caught the virus.

But, let's assume, just for the sake of argument, that half of the Diamond Princess passengers somehow never had contact with any infected persons. That would mean that 712 out of 1850 passengers who were exposed to the virus caught the virus. That would still be a contraction rate of well below 50% (38.5%, to be exact).

Also, among the 712 passengers who caught the virus, 331, or 46.5%, had experienced no symptoms as of the time they were tested. Furthermore, only 9.7% of those who experienced symptoms required intensive care.

As for deaths among the 712 Diamond Princess passengers who caught the virus, some sources say that 8 people died. The CDC says that 9 people died. 8 deaths out of 712 is a death rate of 1.125%, or a 98.875% survival rate. If 9 people died, 9 deaths out of 712 cases is death rate of 1.3%, or a 98.7% survival rate.

In the case of the Grand Princess, there were 1,179 people on board (1,111 passengers and 68 crew members). As far as the CDC can determine, 119 people on the Grand Princess caught the virus. If 119 of the 1,179 people on the Grand Princess caught the virus, that means that only 10.1% of the people who were exposed to the virus caught the virus.

Even if we assume that 70% of the people on the Grand Princess somehow never came into contact with any infected persons, that would still mean that only 119 out of 825 people who were exposed to the virus caught the virus, which would be a contraction rate of only 14.5%.

As for deaths on the Grand Princess, as far as the CDC can determine, only 1 of the 119 people who caught the virus died from it. 1 death out of 119 cases is a death rate of 0.842%, or less than 1%, or a 99.158% survival rate.

Here is the CDC report on the Diamond Princess and Grand Princess cases:

Public Health Responses to COVID-19 Outbreaks on Cruise Ships...

More than 800 cases of laboratory-confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 cases occurred during outbreaks on three cruise ship voyages, and cases linked to several additional cruises have been reported...

www.cdc.gov

Has anyone ever claimed it was 100% contagious?

We knew the contagion rate was in the 10-15% region for three months now.. Only the hype from CNN and MSDNC was claiming it was higher.

What is a “contagion rate” and how is it defined?

 

[Fort Fun Indiana]

In the case of the Diamond Princess, 712 out of 3,711 people in the confined environment of the cruise ship caught the virus. That means that only 19.2% of the people who came into contact with the virus caught the virus.

No. We don't know that every passenger came into contact with the virus.

 

[SweetSue92]

Being exposed to a virus does not mean you are automatically going to get it. Our family of four are not big fans of flu shots for lots of reasons (we did get our other vaccines). One year our daughter was guilted into the flu shot. She was the ONLY one of us to get Influenza A, dx officially by blood test. The rest of the three of us did not--and we were not vaccinated, but were exposed obviously.

 

[Fort Fun Indiana]

Being exposed to a virus does not mean you are automatically going to get it. Our family of four are not big fans of flu shots for lots of reasons (we did get our other vaccines). One year our daughter was guilted into the flu shot. She was the ONLY one of us to get Influenza A, dx officially by blood test. The rest of the three of us did not--and we were not vaccinated, but were exposed obviously.

That was just coincidence.

 

[SweetSue92]

Being exposed to a virus does not mean you are automatically going to get it. Our family of four are not big fans of flu shots for lots of reasons (we did get our other vaccines). One year our daughter was guilted into the flu shot. She was the ONLY one of us to get Influenza A, dx officially by blood test. The rest of the three of us did not--and we were not vaccinated, but were exposed obviously.

That was just coincidence.

Think about this.

When a flu goes through a classroom, does every single child get the virus....ever?

No. I have been teaching for over two decades. I have never, not once ever, seen it happen. A viral infection rate is not 100%

 

[Fort Fun Indiana]

A viral infection rate is not 100%

I didn't claim it was. Not sure why you posted this to me.

 

[Billy_Bob]

Here is some very encouraging news: The cases of two cruise ships prove that COVID-19 is not even close to being 100% contagious. In other words, if you come into contact with an infected person, this does *not* mean you will automatically catch the virus. The cruise ships were the Diamond Princess and the Grand Princess. Well below 50% of the people on those ships caught the virus, even though they were exposed to the virus in a relatively small, confined area.

In the case of the Diamond Princess, 712 out of 3,711 people in the confined environment of the cruise ship caught the virus. That means that only 19.2% of the people who came into contact with the virus caught the virus.

But, let's assume, just for the sake of argument, that half of the Diamond Princess passengers somehow never had contact with any infected persons. That would mean that 712 out of 1850 passengers who were exposed to the virus caught the virus. That would still be a contraction rate of well below 50% (38.5%, to be exact).

Also, among the 712 passengers who caught the virus, 331, or 46.5%, had experienced no symptoms as of the time they were tested. Furthermore, only 9.7% of those who experienced symptoms required intensive care.

As for deaths among the 712 Diamond Princess passengers who caught the virus, some sources say that 8 people died. The CDC says that 9 people died. 8 deaths out of 712 is a death rate of 1.125%, or a 98.875% survival rate. If 9 people died, 9 deaths out of 712 cases is death rate of 1.3%, or a 98.7% survival rate.

In the case of the Grand Princess, there were 1,179 people on board (1,111 passengers and 68 crew members). As far as the CDC can determine, 119 people on the Grand Princess caught the virus. If 119 of the 1,179 people on the Grand Princess caught the virus, that means that only 10.1% of the people who were exposed to the virus caught the virus.

Even if we assume that 70% of the people on the Grand Princess somehow never came into contact with any infected persons, that would still mean that only 119 out of 825 people who were exposed to the virus caught the virus, which would be a contraction rate of only 14.5%.

As for deaths on the Grand Princess, as far as the CDC can determine, only 1 of the 119 people who caught the virus died from it. 1 death out of 119 cases is a death rate of 0.842%, or less than 1%, or a 99.158% survival rate.

Here is the CDC report on the Diamond Princess and Grand Princess cases:

Public Health Responses to COVID-19 Outbreaks on Cruise Ships...

More than 800 cases of laboratory-confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 cases occurred during outbreaks on three cruise ship voyages, and cases linked to several additional cruises have been reported...

www.cdc.gov

Has anyone ever claimed it was 100% contagious?

We knew the contagion rate was in the 10-15% region for three months now.. Only the hype from CNN and MSDNC was claiming it was higher.

What is a “contagion rate” and how is it defined?

Exposed / Contracted

This can be determined by numbers of those contracting and tracing the number of contacts.

We know from China that their rate was 1-10 (One exposed contacted 100 others and 10 of them became infected during the time they were asymptomatic). In Italy it is 1-15.

 

[colfax_m]

Here is some very encouraging news: The cases of two cruise ships prove that COVID-19 is not even close to being 100% contagious. In other words, if you come into contact with an infected person, this does *not* mean you will automatically catch the virus. The cruise ships were the Diamond Princess and the Grand Princess. Well below 50% of the people on those ships caught the virus, even though they were exposed to the virus in a relatively small, confined area.

In the case of the Diamond Princess, 712 out of 3,711 people in the confined environment of the cruise ship caught the virus. That means that only 19.2% of the people who came into contact with the virus caught the virus.

But, let's assume, just for the sake of argument, that half of the Diamond Princess passengers somehow never had contact with any infected persons. That would mean that 712 out of 1850 passengers who were exposed to the virus caught the virus. That would still be a contraction rate of well below 50% (38.5%, to be exact).

Also, among the 712 passengers who caught the virus, 331, or 46.5%, had experienced no symptoms as of the time they were tested. Furthermore, only 9.7% of those who experienced symptoms required intensive care.

As for deaths among the 712 Diamond Princess passengers who caught the virus, some sources say that 8 people died. The CDC says that 9 people died. 8 deaths out of 712 is a death rate of 1.125%, or a 98.875% survival rate. If 9 people died, 9 deaths out of 712 cases is death rate of 1.3%, or a 98.7% survival rate.

In the case of the Grand Princess, there were 1,179 people on board (1,111 passengers and 68 crew members). As far as the CDC can determine, 119 people on the Grand Princess caught the virus. If 119 of the 1,179 people on the Grand Princess caught the virus, that means that only 10.1% of the people who were exposed to the virus caught the virus.

Even if we assume that 70% of the people on the Grand Princess somehow never came into contact with any infected persons, that would still mean that only 119 out of 825 people who were exposed to the virus caught the virus, which would be a contraction rate of only 14.5%.

As for deaths on the Grand Princess, as far as the CDC can determine, only 1 of the 119 people who caught the virus died from it. 1 death out of 119 cases is a death rate of 0.842%, or less than 1%, or a 99.158% survival rate.

Here is the CDC report on the Diamond Princess and Grand Princess cases:

Public Health Responses to COVID-19 Outbreaks on Cruise Ships...

More than 800 cases of laboratory-confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 cases occurred during outbreaks on three cruise ship voyages, and cases linked to several additional cruises have been reported...

www.cdc.gov

Has anyone ever claimed it was 100% contagious?

We knew the contagion rate was in the 10-15% region for three months now.. Only the hype from CNN and MSDNC was claiming it was higher.

What is a “contagion rate” and how is it defined?

Exposed / Contracted

This can be determined by numbers of those contracting and tracing the number of contacts.

We know from China that their rate was 1-10 (One exposed contacted 100 others and 10 of them became infected during the time they were asymptomatic). In Italy it is 1-15.

Now you have to define exposed.

Is there a paper you’re referencing here?

 

[sakinago]

Here is some very encouraging news: The cases of two cruise ships prove that COVID-19 is not even close to being 100% contagious. In other words, if you come into contact with an infected person, this does *not* mean you will automatically catch the virus. The cruise ships were the Diamond Princess and the Grand Princess. Well below 50% of the people on those ships caught the virus, even though they were exposed to the virus in a relatively small, confined area.

In the case of the Diamond Princess, 712 out of 3,711 people in the confined environment of the cruise ship caught the virus. That means that only 19.2% of the people who came into contact with the virus caught the virus.

But, let's assume, just for the sake of argument, that half of the Diamond Princess passengers somehow never had contact with any infected persons. That would mean that 712 out of 1850 passengers who were exposed to the virus caught the virus. That would still be a contraction rate of well below 50% (38.5%, to be exact).

Also, among the 712 passengers who caught the virus, 331, or 46.5%, had experienced no symptoms as of the time they were tested. Furthermore, only 9.7% of those who experienced symptoms required intensive care.

As for deaths among the 712 Diamond Princess passengers who caught the virus, some sources say that 8 people died. The CDC says that 9 people died. 8 deaths out of 712 is a death rate of 1.125%, or a 98.875% survival rate. If 9 people died, 9 deaths out of 712 cases is death rate of 1.3%, or a 98.7% survival rate.

In the case of the Grand Princess, there were 1,179 people on board (1,111 passengers and 68 crew members). As far as the CDC can determine, 119 people on the Grand Princess caught the virus. If 119 of the 1,179 people on the Grand Princess caught the virus, that means that only 10.1% of the people who were exposed to the virus caught the virus.

Even if we assume that 70% of the people on the Grand Princess somehow never came into contact with any infected persons, that would still mean that only 119 out of 825 people who were exposed to the virus caught the virus, which would be a contraction rate of only 14.5%.

As for deaths on the Grand Princess, as far as the CDC can determine, only 1 of the 119 people who caught the virus died from it. 1 death out of 119 cases is a death rate of 0.842%, or less than 1%, or a 99.158% survival rate.

Here is the CDC report on the Diamond Princess and Grand Princess cases:

Public Health Responses to COVID-19 Outbreaks on Cruise Ships...

More than 800 cases of laboratory-confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 cases occurred during outbreaks on three cruise ship voyages, and cases linked to several additional cruises have been reported...

www.cdc.gov

This is not at all an controlled study. We don’t know how effectively they quarantined the patients on board. I’m sure cruise lines have very effective quarantine measures, because even a 24 hour stomach bug can turn into an absolute nightmare for them, so they have to be very wary of that. I agree that the death rate is probably somewhere closer to 1.3%, but as far as infection rate, there are some things we do know. We know that no one has immunity to this. Meaning it’s infection rate is going to be close to 100%. What we don’t really know is how many people are going to have a bad reaction, a mild reaction, or seemingly no reaction to this virus. We do know that this virus is very contagious. Looking at the numbers now it seems to be an R3, that number meaning 1 person on average will spread it to 3 other people. The common cold is only a R1.2-4. This virus is twice as contagious as the common flu. Mind you at this point, the infection rate is probably even higher than that. People don’t usually get tested until they’re experiencing symptoms, or someone close to them is. That also means the death rate is probably lower than 2%. Problem is, what we do know without a doubt is that the people who do have a bad reaction to this virus is enough people to overwhelm the healthcare system if we let this get out of hand. This is not just the flu. It’s a brand new disease that can cause a pneumonia in some people that’s excruciatingly painful for up to 2-3weeks, and can cause death in those people if they don’t get the help they need.

 

[OnePercenter]

Being exposed to a virus does not mean you are automatically going to get it. Our family of four are not big fans of flu shots for lots of reasons (we did get our other vaccines). One year our daughter was guilted into the flu shot. She was the ONLY one of us to get Influenza A, dx officially by blood test. The rest of the three of us did not--and we were not vaccinated, but were exposed obviously.

You "guilted" your daughter into a flu shot. Shame on you.

 

[OnePercenter]

Being exposed to a virus does not mean you are automatically going to get it. Our family of four are not big fans of flu shots for lots of reasons (we did get our other vaccines). One year our daughter was guilted into the flu shot. She was the ONLY one of us to get Influenza A, dx officially by blood test. The rest of the three of us did not--and we were not vaccinated, but were exposed obviously.

That was just coincidence.

Think about this.

When a flu goes through a classroom, does every single child get the virus....ever?

No. I have been teaching for over two decades. I have never, not once ever, seen it happen. A viral infection rate is not 100%

So 70 year olds should go back to work and "take one for the gipper?"

 

[B. Kidd]

We all have varying types and levels of immune systems, so it's damn nice to know that this thing can't just overwhelm any of them.

Good. I'll sure as hell take it.

Damn straight!

Remain the ignorant bastard you are. You'll survive.

 

[B. Kidd]

Being exposed to a virus does not mean you are automatically going to get it. Our family of four are not big fans of flu shots for lots of reasons (we did get our other vaccines). One year our daughter was guilted into the flu shot. She was the ONLY one of us to get Influenza A, dx officially by blood test. The rest of the three of us did not--and we were not vaccinated, but were exposed obviously.

That was just coincidence.

Think about this.

When a flu goes through a classroom, does every single child get the virus....ever?

No. I have been teaching for over two decades. I have never, not once ever, seen it happen. A viral infection rate is not 100%

So 70 year olds should go back to work and "take one for the gipper?"

It was reported this morning that half of Virginia's cases were under the age of 50.
Chinese biolab produced viruses can be tricky.

 

[Missourian]

Next year's Darwin awards may be given out to the American right who decided to sacrifice it's weaker members for the sake of the economy.

Keep yapping.

Somebody might actually take you seriously.

Being a Trump supporter will certainly end up being a measurable risk factor of dying of this disease. I saw the Trumpbots at our local hardware store still shaking hands, still talking close. Seems they are congregating there since it's still open. I had to go get something for the house and there they were, about a dozen of them standing inside the door chit-chatting. Bunch of middle-aged men with nothing better to do than to flirt with death. I live in a really small town, I know these men, I do not want to see them get sick but it will be difficult to have any pity for them if they do.

I see the same thing...I was sitting in my truck at walmart today watching the employees on break standing right on top of each other smokin' and jokin'...younger folks in this instance...but I see all ages doing it. They think "oh, there are only (blankity blank) confirmed cases in the county." With up to 14 days incubation period' that info is two weeks behind. Two weeks ago you had barely heard the word Covid19...

 

[Missourian]

I don't know about y'all, but I LIKE staying away from people...and them away from me.

 

[B. Kidd]

Next year's Darwin awards may be given out to the American right who decided to sacrifice it's weaker members for the sake of the economy.

Keep yapping.

Somebody might actually take you seriously.

Being a Trump supporter will certainly end up being a measurable risk factor of dying of this disease. I saw the Trumpbots at our local hardware store still shaking hands, still talking close. Seems they are congregating there since it's still open. I had to go get something for the house and there they were, about a dozen of them standing inside the door chit-chatting. Bunch of middle-aged men with nothing better to do than to flirt with death. I live in a really small town, I know these men, I do not want to see them get sick but it will be difficult to have any pity for them if they do.

I see the same thing...I was sitting in my truck at walmart today watching the employees on break standing right on top of each other smokin' and jokin'...younger folks in this instance...but I see all ages doing it. They think "oh, there are only (blankity blank) confirmed cases in the county." With up to 14 days incubation period' that info is two weeks behind. Two weeks ago you had barely hear the word Covid19...

I hope you didn't order anything from their deli.

 

[Missourian]

Next year's Darwin awards may be given out to the American right who decided to sacrifice it's weaker members for the sake of the economy.

Keep yapping.

Somebody might actually take you seriously.

Being a Trump supporter will certainly end up being a measurable risk factor of dying of this disease. I saw the Trumpbots at our local hardware store still shaking hands, still talking close. Seems they are congregating there since it's still open. I had to go get something for the house and there they were, about a dozen of them standing inside the door chit-chatting. Bunch of middle-aged men with nothing better to do than to flirt with death. I live in a really small town, I know these men, I do not want to see them get sick but it will be difficult to have any pity for them if they do.

I see the same thing...I was sitting in my truck at walmart today watching the employees on break standing right on top of each other smokin' and jokin'...younger folks in this instance...but I see all ages doing it. They think "oh, there are only (blankity blank) confirmed cases in the county." With up to 14 days incubation period' that info is two weeks behind. Two weeks ago you had barely hear the word Covid19...

I hope you didn't order anything from their deli.

Not a chance.

 

[Lesh]

Being exposed to a virus does not mean you are automatically going to get it. Our family of four are not big fans of flu shots for lots of reasons (we did get our other vaccines). One year our daughter was guilted into the flu shot. She was the ONLY one of us to get Influenza A, dx officially by blood test. The rest of the three of us did not--and we were not vaccinated, but were exposed obviously.

The contagion rate of Covid is something on the order of double that of the kind of flu you are talking about.

Keep up dimwit