Trump Has GOP Nomination Nailed Down; Here's the Math

[eagle1462010]

 

[Dr.Traveler]

But he is not going to lose Indiana and this nomination race is over in practical terms after Indiana.

Indiana is the last stand for sure. The RCP average has Trump up, the Five Thirty Eight Polls only has Trump up. The Five Thirty Eight Polls-Plus model is the only one I know that has Ted Cruz up.

Should Trump win Indiana, it's essentially over for the GOP race, much as it's over right now for the Democratic race. It is possible Bernie or Cruz could make a comeback, but incredibly unlikely.

 

[rightwinger]

Trump currently has 994 delegates pledged to him on the first ballot.

Who's Winning the Presidential Delegate Count?

Lets use the current polls to calculate what Trump will win, but give him only 65% of the delegates, and he has been doing way better than that in states he wins, and assume Cruze gets 100% of the states Trump loses.

Indiana: Trump +37
Nebraska: Trump loses
West Virginia: Trump +22
Oregon: Trump +18
Washington: Trump +28
California: Trump +111
New Jersey: Trump +34
New Mexico: Trump loss
Montana: Trump loss
South Dakota:Trump loss
Trump goes into convention with 1241 delegates.

In reality Trump will sweep West Virginia and New Jersey, so he will have an additional 29 delegates over this predicted amount.

With Trumps momentum building, he will probably win more states than this.But if Trump loses Indiana, and he is up 6% with the wind at his back, so its very unlikely, but if Trump loses Indiana then the nomination is still open in all practical considerations.

But he is not going to lose Indiana and this nomination race is over in practical terms after Indiana.

I think your numbers are right

Trump is gaining momentum. I expect close to 1300

 

[namvet]

thank you protesters keep up the good work

 

[miketx]

Here's the one I made.

 

[dannyboys]

There are unbound delegates in Pennsylvania still in the air................and many are committed to their district votes.............54 on the line there.......and is still in question........................that changes the equation somewhat.................

It's gonna be close...........and Cruz, Kasich and the establishment knows it...............and the people are seeing the establishment trying to change the voters choices and is pissing them off..............which would be a up yours vote coming up in the final 10 states..........could change the playing field.

The 54 are all going to Trump because he won every district.
Them's the rules.

 

[dannyboys]

It will come down to the wire. Which is why it's absolutely absurd to pretend it's over and call for Cruz to drop out. Or why it's absurd to declare Trump the will of the people when the people haven't finished speaking. Especially when we are going into States more favorable to Cruz.

It's also why Cruz picking Carly at this point was a great move because it breaks up Trump's momentum by getting the media off the stories of his "inevitability".

You are still whistling in the graveyard I see.
Cruz at this point picking a VP is like one of Muhammad Ali's opponents putting a non-refundable down payment on a Beverly Hills mansion.

 

[BlackAsCoal]

Trump winning the nomination is music to the ears of democrats. :0)

It ensures that Hillary Clinton WILL be the next president.

NEWSFLASH Gopers .. Trump doesn't want to be president .. never did. It's all an act for his good friend, Bill Clinton.

Jeez republicans are stupid.

 

[gipper]

Trump winning the nomination is music to the ears of democrats. :0)

It ensures that Hillary Clinton WILL be the next president.

NEWSFLASH Gopers .. Trump doesn't want to be president .. never did. It's all an act for his good friend, Bill Clinton.

Jeez republicans are stupid.

You might be right...and her election is very likely to result in WWIII.

 

[BlackAsCoal]

Trump winning the nomination is music to the ears of democrats. :0)

It ensures that Hillary Clinton WILL be the next president.

NEWSFLASH Gopers .. Trump doesn't want to be president .. never did. It's all an act for his good friend, Bill Clinton.

Jeez republicans are stupid.

You might be right...and her election is very likely to result in WWIII.

[/QUOTE]
You might be right...and her election is very likely to result in WWIII.[/QUOTE]

Now, you might be right

 

[JimBowie1958]

I tend to agree. As I have said before, I don't believe one candidate in this presidential race is fit to do the job.

What would you say that those qualifications should be? A Phd? Service in the military? 20 years in elected office?

I think the President should be someone who has
1) either worked punching a clock or who owned their own business for 20 years,
2) spent at least 3 years in the US military (lets be generous and include the Coast Guard here),
3) held electoral office of some kind for a minimum of 10 years,
4) has a tested IQ over 130.

This would put them at a minimum of 50 years old, but I wouldnt want to change the Constitution to reflect that; 35 for the exceptional individual is fine by me.

But the President should be a statesman from any background, and not just a political hack who sucked his way up through a political machine.

 

[MarcATL]

ROTFLMBAO!!!!

The GOP is TOAST!

Sent from my SM-N910T using Tapatalk

 

[JimBowie1958]

There are unbound delegates in Pennsylvania still in the air................and many are committed to their district votes.............54 on the line there.......and is still in question........................that changes the equation somewhat.................

It's gonna be close...........and Cruz, Kasich and the establishment knows it...............and the people are seeing the establishment trying to change the voters choices and is pissing them off..............which would be a up yours vote coming up in the final 10 states..........could change the playing field.

The 994 does not include the uncommitted PA delegates, though Trump should have all of them to as he swept PA.

 

[JimBowie1958]

ROTFLMBAO!!!!

The GOP is TOAST!

Trump is going to CRUSH Hillary, dear.

 

[dannyboys]

Trump winning the nomination is music to the ears of democrats. :0)

It ensures that Hillary Clinton WILL be the next president.

NEWSFLASH Gopers .. Trump doesn't want to be president .. never did. It's all an act for his good friend, Bill Clinton.

Jeez republicans are stupid.

Your post is one of the dumbest I've ever read on any forum.
So Trump is going to spend a few BILLION of his OWN money after he wins the nomination to beat Hillary?
But he doesn't really want to win.
And it's all an act to help Bill? Help Bill do FUCKING WHAT????
The fucking pervert already has one foot in the grave.
How old are you? Like twelve mentally?
Dear JESUS you really are a fucking idiot!

 

[dannyboys]

There are unbound delegates in Pennsylvania still in the air................and many are committed to their district votes.............54 on the line there.......and is still in question........................that changes the equation somewhat.................

It's gonna be close...........and Cruz, Kasich and the establishment knows it...............and the people are seeing the establishment trying to change the voters choices and is pissing them off..............which would be a up yours vote coming up in the final 10 states..........could change the playing field.

The 994 does not include the uncommitted PA delegates, though Trump should have all of them to as he swept PA.

He already does. He won every county and district. Them's the rules.

 

[BlackAsCoal]

Trump winning the nomination is music to the ears of democrats. :0)

It ensures that Hillary Clinton WILL be the next president.

NEWSFLASH Gopers .. Trump doesn't want to be president .. never did. It's all an act for his good friend, Bill Clinton.

Jeez republicans are stupid.

Your post is one of the dumbest I've ever read on any forum.
So Trump is going to spend a few BILLION of his OWN money after he wins the nomination to beat Hillary?
But he doesn't really want to win.
And it's all an act to help Bill? Help Bill do FUCKING WHAT????
The fucking pervert already has one foot in the grave.
How old are you? Like twelve mentally?
Dear JESUS you really are a fucking idiot!

I like talking to really dumb ass people like you. If I could write this in crayons I would do it just for you. :0)

Hillary is a seriously flawed candidate .. as demonstrated in 2008. There isn't an easier candidate for her to run against then Donald Trump .. especially a Donald Trump who doesn't even want to win .. so he purposefully offends every demographic he would need to win.

Did he talk this way BEFORE he ran for president?

Not long ago .. Trump was a democrat and he's always been a good friend of the Clintons.. Don't know that .. it's because you're dumb.

Donald Trump: 'I probably identify more as Democrat' - CNNPolitics.com

Go ask Jeb Bush, Glenn Beck, and a host of other republicans if they think Trump is a plant.

Then again, it doesn't matter what you think ..

 

[mrbojanglezs]

does your numbers include the unbound delegates in PA, Trump got like 85% of them

 

[dannyboys]

Trump winning the nomination is music to the ears of democrats. :0)

It ensures that Hillary Clinton WILL be the next president.

NEWSFLASH Gopers .. Trump doesn't want to be president .. never did. It's all an act for his good friend, Bill Clinton.

Jeez republicans are stupid.

Your post is one of the dumbest I've ever read on any forum.
So Trump is going to spend a few BILLION of his OWN money after he wins the nomination to beat Hillary?
But he doesn't really want to win.
And it's all an act to help Bill? Help Bill do FUCKING WHAT????
The fucking pervert already has one foot in the grave.
How old are you? Like twelve mentally?
Dear JESUS you really are a fucking idiot!

I like talking to really dumb ass people like you. If I could write this in crayons I would do it just for you. :0)

Hillary is a seriously flawed candidate .. as demonstrated in 2008. There isn't an easier candidate for her to run against then Donald Trump .. especially a Donald Trump who doesn't even want to win .. so he purposefully offends every demographic he would need to win.

Did he talk this way BEFORE he ran for president?

Not long ago .. Trump was a democrat and he's always been a good friend of the Clintons.. Don't know that .. it's because you're dumb.

Donald Trump: 'I probably identify more as Democrat' - CNNPolitics.com

Go ask Jeb Bush, Glenn Beck, and a host of other republicans if they think Trump is a plant.

Then again, it doesn't matter what you think ..

Do you find it strange that all theses 'demographics' you claim Trump has purposefully set out to offend seem to be turning out to support Trump in unprecedented historic high numbers.
Watch and see how many millions of these 'offended' people vote for him in November.
He literally 'bought' the Clintons. They are both no better than crack whores.

 

[eagle1462010]

There are unbound delegates in Pennsylvania still in the air................and many are committed to their district votes.............54 on the line there.......and is still in question........................that changes the equation somewhat.................

It's gonna be close...........and Cruz, Kasich and the establishment knows it...............and the people are seeing the establishment trying to change the voters choices and is pissing them off..............which would be a up yours vote coming up in the final 10 states..........could change the playing field.

The 54 are all going to Trump because he won every district.
Them's the rules.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/28/us/politics/pennsylvania-delegates-donald-trump.html

PHILADELPHIA — Mary Ann Meloy, one of the 54 Republican delegates elected in Pennsylvania on Tuesday as free agents to the Republican National Convention, said she would find it very hard to vote for Donald J. Trump.

Ms. Meloy had a sister with cerebral palsy. And Mr. Trump’s disparaging treatment of people with disabilities, she said, “made me want to jump through the television screen.”

Because of the unusual latitude the Pennsylvania Republican Party gives to the delegates like Ms. Meloy who are not required to support any candidate, Mr. Trump’s crushing victory in the state on Tuesday is more complicated than it may appear.