Trump has a big lead in Monmouth's latest New Hampshire poll (GOP nomination)

[Statistikhengst]

Poll Trump has twice the support of Bush in New Hampshire - Eliza Collins - POLITICO

From Monmouth directly:

http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/32...1087/91f71597-b5fc-46cf-958e-e813091cd754.pdf

Taken July 23rd-26th, 2015, released today, July 28th, 2015
467 NH Republican and Republican leaning Independent LV, MoE = +/-4.5%


Trump 24
Undecided 14
Bush 12
Kasich 7
Walker 7
Rubio 6
Carson 5
Paul 5
Christie 4
Fiorina 3
Cruz 3
Huckabee 2
Jindal 2
Pataki 2
Perry 1
Santorum 1
Graham 0
Gilmore 0


(others not listed in the politico article)

Margin: Trump +12

The big news is also that Kasich is already at 7%, apparently ahead of Paul, Carson, Rubio, etc...

If this continues, it could mean the Kasich jumps into the top-tier, and pretty quickly too.

 

[Statistikhengst]

I just checked out the methodology and it looks solid. The demographics are also interesting to see:

New Hampshire holds semi-open primaries. This means that registered Republicans and Independents may vote in the primaries. Last minute party switches, if I recall correctly, are not allowed in NH, but I am going to double check this.

Look at the primary demographics. In a nation that will very likely go 53 Female / 47 Male to the polls in November, 2016, for the GOP in NH, it's reversed: 53 Male / 47 Female.

The racial component (98% white, non-hispanic) is pretty much in line with the racial demographics of this state, so there's nothing to say there.

But look how old they are. 68% of the respondents in this poll are 50 or over. Only 9% are somewhat approaching the Gen-X crowd.

Because the poll allowed both registered Republicans and self-identified Independent to partake, the breakdown is:

63.6% Republican
36.4% Independent

Sounds about right.

Look at ideology:

27% are very conservative

and 35.6% are Tea Party supporters.

That's a pretty obvious overlap of demographics.

Most likely, the vast majority of the very conservative respondents are also Tea Party supporters.

So, the demographics look pretty ok for NH, but the aging of the crowd is noticeable. I remember GOP polls from 2008 with 30% of GOP respondents in the 35-49 category.

Interesting stuff.

 

[Statistikhengst]

The fav/unfavs are also interesting to see. Remember, this is a Republican/Indy only crowd, no D's in the mix:

Scott Walker (R-WI) has he best fav/unfav: 57 to 16, +39

Five GOP candidates are underwater with their own electorate:

Gilmore, -15
Graham, -22 (he is obviously hated in NH)
Pataki, -19 (considered a NY Rino, I bet)
Perry, -5 (this one surprised me)
Santorum, -26, the worst fav of them all. Santorum took 4th place in NH in the 2012 primaries, with 9.43%.

And two candidates are barely above water:

Christie, +2
Trump, +3

Bush has a +10 fav/unfav.

So, the guy with the highest unfav (Scott Walker, +39) is in 4th place, after Trump, undecideds and Bush....

 

[Claudette]

He's obviously saying what those polled want to hear.

 

[Vigilante]

WHAT DOES A REPUBLICAN DO???.....ROTFLMFAO....you'd think they'd get the message by now, BUT NO, The Donald can't even be hurt by make believe RAPE allegations... they must think his name is Herman Cain, worked once, it will work again....ROTFLMFAO!!

Washington Examiner ^ | 07/28/2015 | Byron York
A new poll of voters likely to take part in the New Hampshire Republican primary shows Donald Trump with the biggest lead he has yet held in the GOP race. The Monmouth University poll, released Tuesday morning, has Trump at 24 percent -- double the support of the next-highest Republican, Jeb Bush, at 12 percent. Scott Walker and John Kasich are tied for third at seven percent apiece -- a significant drop for Walker from recent months and a significant advance for Kasich, who announced his candidacy on June 21. Following are Marco Rubio, at six percent; Ben Carson and...

 

[B. Kidd]

I did figure that his trashing of the Des Moines Register would be worth an uptick in the polls, as most people don't trust the media anymore.

 

[Claudette]

Well he's obviously saying something those polled like or he wouldn't be leading anything.

If the GOP is smart, which they ain't, they will go with the flow.

 

[Statistikhengst]

A thread about this was already created:

Trump has a big lead in Monmouth s latest New Hampshire poll GOP nomination US Message Board - Political Discussion Forum

 

[Statistikhengst]

He's obviously saying what those polled want to hear.

Very possible. I don't dispute that at all.

 

[Vigilante]

A thread about this was already created:

Trump has a big lead in Monmouth s latest New Hampshire poll GOP nomination US Message Board - Political Discussion Forum

Good, you subversives NEED to be reminded!!!!

 

[konradv]

IMO, Trump is this cycle's Perot. His ego will not allow him to drop out. Count on a third party run and a Clinton coronation.

 

[Vigilante]

IMO, Trump is this cycle's Perot. His ego will not allow him to drop out. Count on a third party run and a Clinton coronation.

 

[konradv]

IMO, Trump is this cycle's Perot. His ego will not allow him to drop out. Count on a third party run and a Clinton coronation.

That's Madam president to you.