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Trump administration sees a 7-degree rise in global temperatures by 2100
Last month, deep in a 500-page environmental impact statement, the Trump administration made a startling assumption: On its current course, the planet will warm a disastrous seven degrees by the end of this century.
A rise of seven degrees Fahrenheit, or about four degrees Celsius, compared with preindustrial levels would be catastrophic, according to scientists. Many coral reefs would dissolve in increasingly acidic oceans. Parts of Manhattan and Miami would be underwater without costly coastal defenses. Extreme heat waves would routinely smother large parts of the globe.
But the administration did not offer this dire forecast, premised on the idea that the world will fail to cut its greenhouse gas emissions, as part of an argument to combat climate change. Just the opposite: The analysis assumes the planet’s fate is already sealed.
Here is the environmental impact statement: https://www.nhtsa.gov/sites/nhtsa.dot.gov/files/documents/ld_cafe_my2021-26_deis_0.pdf
From 1880 to 2016, the global mean surface temperature rose by about 0.9°C (1.6°F) (GCRP 2017). Temperatures are rising at an increasing rate. The average rate of increase since 1951 was 0.12°C (plus or minus 0.03°C) (0.22°F plus or minus 0.05°F) per decade. The average Arctic temperature has increased at almost twice the global average rate over at least the past several decades (GCRP 2017). Air temperatures are warming more rapidly over land than over oceans (IPCC 2013a, GCRP 2017). Similar to the global trend, the U.S. average temperature is about 1.8°F warmer than it was in 1895, and this rate of warming is increasing—most of the warming has occurred since 1970 (GCRP 2017). Surface temperatures are not rising uniformly around the globe. For example, some areas of the southeast region of the United States have experienced “warming holes” because temperature observations during the 20th century suggest minor to no warming trends since 1901 (GCRP 2017). IPCC predicts a continuing increase in surface temperature between 2081 and 2100, with a likely range between 0.3°C (0.5°F) and 4.8°C (8.6°F), compared with 1986 through 2005, where the lower value corresponds to substantial future mitigation of carbon emissions
Last month, deep in a 500-page environmental impact statement, the Trump administration made a startling assumption: On its current course, the planet will warm a disastrous seven degrees by the end of this century.
A rise of seven degrees Fahrenheit, or about four degrees Celsius, compared with preindustrial levels would be catastrophic, according to scientists. Many coral reefs would dissolve in increasingly acidic oceans. Parts of Manhattan and Miami would be underwater without costly coastal defenses. Extreme heat waves would routinely smother large parts of the globe.
But the administration did not offer this dire forecast, premised on the idea that the world will fail to cut its greenhouse gas emissions, as part of an argument to combat climate change. Just the opposite: The analysis assumes the planet’s fate is already sealed.
Here is the environmental impact statement: https://www.nhtsa.gov/sites/nhtsa.dot.gov/files/documents/ld_cafe_my2021-26_deis_0.pdf
From 1880 to 2016, the global mean surface temperature rose by about 0.9°C (1.6°F) (GCRP 2017). Temperatures are rising at an increasing rate. The average rate of increase since 1951 was 0.12°C (plus or minus 0.03°C) (0.22°F plus or minus 0.05°F) per decade. The average Arctic temperature has increased at almost twice the global average rate over at least the past several decades (GCRP 2017). Air temperatures are warming more rapidly over land than over oceans (IPCC 2013a, GCRP 2017). Similar to the global trend, the U.S. average temperature is about 1.8°F warmer than it was in 1895, and this rate of warming is increasing—most of the warming has occurred since 1970 (GCRP 2017). Surface temperatures are not rising uniformly around the globe. For example, some areas of the southeast region of the United States have experienced “warming holes” because temperature observations during the 20th century suggest minor to no warming trends since 1901 (GCRP 2017). IPCC predicts a continuing increase in surface temperature between 2081 and 2100, with a likely range between 0.3°C (0.5°F) and 4.8°C (8.6°F), compared with 1986 through 2005, where the lower value corresponds to substantial future mitigation of carbon emissions