Tracking the el nino

[jc456]

jc, California is getting their rain exactly as the people at NOAA predicted. You and Billy are good for so many laughs.

So you're saying that the only reason California gets rain is when there is an el nino? Wow, no wonder they've been in a drought. Funny man old socks. Still smelling up the forum though. Still no presence of el nino all of 2015 in the mid to east coast regions. Still hasn't happened. Warmer weather has always come from the south from Texas and Oklahoma. Because someone cries out el nino now every weather event is due to it is bullshit.

just so you know.

 

[Old Rocks]

Look, silly ass, you were making fun of NOAA for the fact that they predicted rain for the current El Nino. There prediction was that there would be major rains in the three months following the peak of the El Nino for California. Right on schedule, the rains are starting. They were right, you and Silly Billy were and are full of shit, as usual.

Now, make your predictions. We shall see who is correct.

 

[Old Rocks]

Precipitation
Jan 2016 Jan-Feb-Mar 2016

That is what NOAA says, what say you?

 

[flacaltenn]

Look, silly ass, you were making fun of NOAA for the fact that they predicted rain for the current El Nino. There prediction was that there would be major rains in the three months following the peak of the El Nino for California. Right on schedule, the rains are starting. They were right, you and Silly Billy were and are full of shit, as usual.

Now, make your predictions. We shall see who is correct.

Except that's NOT the El Nino pattern that they forecasted 6 months ago.. I'd say about "equal chances" of success/failure.

 

[9aces]

Funny, seems like the NWS is agreeing with Billy. Does a Weakening El Niño Mean a More Dangerous 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season?

He missed the timing a bit, but not by a whole lot if their estimate is correct.

He missed the timing by half a fucking year. Please stick with stuff you understand or be ready for people to laugh at you. lol

Half a year is much better than the so-called experts you've been slathering over.

Morons like you are simply incapable apparently of figuring out that trying to base a prediction off a micro-fraction of the data is more a matter of luck when they're right than anything else.

 

[jc456]

Look, silly ass, you were making fun of NOAA for the fact that they predicted rain for the current El Nino. There prediction was that there would be major rains in the three months following the peak of the El Nino for California. Right on schedule, the rains are starting. They were right, you and Silly Billy were and are full of shit, as usual.

Now, make your predictions. We shall see who is correct.

Hahahaha, sure, you can call it what you want, but I'll call it JOHNSON

 

[Billy_Bob]

I see it is time to educate the alarmist fools once again..

The AMO and PDO are both negative (cooling) which is 180 degrees from what it was doing in 1997-98. During that time both of these were spiking at the same time we were at solar max of that current cycle. This time they are cooling and the sun is quiet and cooling. The latent heat created by El Niño is already plummeting in the northern hemisphere.

There are significant differences in the states of the oceans and solar output between the current El Nino and the previous one. The weather patterns Old Rocks posted up thread are one of a forming La Niña (here) and precipitation pattern (here).

The warmth that was seen in the 1997-98 event is being countered by a negative AMO and PDO shift coupled with low solar input to the earths systems.

The late 2016-17 La Nina (which is now forming quite rapidly) will occur during the wind down of of the current weak solar cycle to its minimum. (I expect solar cycle minimum in late-2018 or early 2019.)

The step change may be down, not up with a La Nina in 2017. With the remainder of our current El Niño to be almost flat with a possible 3-4 month area that is warmer but not warm enough to cause the pause to cease. After that the change is to cooling.

Crick and Old Rocks won't post up their own predictions because the do not understand what is in play with the current El Niño.

The run up to the next CAGW alarmist conclave will happen with all of their models being well outside of 95% confidence level, even with all the unwarranted upward adjustments they are making..

 

[Billy_Bob]

The latest weekly SST departures are:
Niño 4 1.5ºC
Niño 3.4 2.7ºC
Niño 3 2.6ºC
Niño 1+2 1.6ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

Still in the super El Nino range.

Why are your numbers ALWAYS INFLATED by 0.5 deg C?

Not for long.. The rapid decrease is going to continue. Region 1-2 is cooling rapidly, which means there is no new heat to support anything.

You see those three highlights of the last three (three day averages) The temperatures are falling so fast we will be totally out of El Niño range in region 1-2 in less than two weeks.

This thing is collapsing fast...

 

[Billy_Bob]

This El Niño is going to fizzle and the coming La Niña is going to be big, very big...

 

[Old Rocks]

The latest weekly SST departures are:
Niño 4 1.5ºC
Niño 3.4 2.7ºC
Niño 3 2.6ºC
Niño 1+2 1.6ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

Still in the super El Nino range.

Why are your numbers ALWAYS INFLATED by 0.5 deg C?

Not for long.. The rapid decrease is going to continue. Region 1-2 is cooling rapidly, which means there is no new heat to support anything.

View attachment 58929

You see those three highlights of the last three (three day averages) The temperatures are falling so fast we will be totally out of El Niño range in region 1-2 in less than two weeks.

This thing is collapsing fast...

OK, Silly Billy, we'll quote this at that time.

 

[Old Rocks]

Silly Billy, April 26, 2015

"There is a cooling undercurrent that is about to wipe out any warming that we have seen. The change has already happened in the arctic deep water cold return."

 

[Matted Joybeard]

About == 9 to 12 months

 

[Billy_Bob]

Silly Billy, April 26, 2015

"There is a cooling undercurrent that is about to wipe out any warming that we have seen. The change has already happened in the arctic deep water cold return."

And its about to make an appearance that is going to fizzle the current patterns... But keep your head rectally impacted you moron...

 

[Crick]

You've been making predictions consistently 180 degrees out for the last four months. Why in god's name would anyone listen to your opinion on the topic? Faith in your degree in atmospheric physics?

 

[ScienceRocks]

As for what I think will happen with the nino...Based on some subsurface maps I've looked at the past week it appears to be weakening slower then the 1997-1998 event. The cold pool expanding eastward is weaker then it was at the same point in those years...

I'll predict that it will remain above 2.0c to mid feb and above 1 through late May! There's a chance we may get to 0c or slightly below by Oct-Dec time period, but I honestly doubt we get the three months needed at -.5c at 3.4 to get even a weak nina this year. Of course this could change, but we're talking about 11-12 months ahead here.

With this in mind I doubt we'll cool as fast as we did in 1998 and 2016 will be at least as warm as 2015! Won't say warmer but of course that could happen if the cooling is as slow as I think it maybe.

 

[ScienceRocks]

Here is one of the maps

 

[Billy_Bob]

Here is one of the maps

The cold pool near the equator is massive. The cold water is amassing so fast that the warm water above it is now less than 100 meters. The 97-98 event had water at 300 meters in depth well above the +3 deg C anomaly. Regions 1-2 are falling so fast that in just the last 6 days we have fallen 0.82 deg C. The NOAA predictions are fantasy, by March 30 we will be near zero anomaly or below trending towards La Niña. Without a positive AMO and PDO, with low solar output, there simply isn't any new heat to continue driving anything.

 

[ScienceRocks]

I'll admit from the surface to the sub-surface from 100-130 west this nino isn't anywhere near 1997-1998 event. Very much a area 3, 3.4 and 4 nino...3.4 is in fact stronger then the 1997-1998 event that peaked at 2.7c for its highest anomaly.

Still it is obvious that the cold subsurface water is far weaker and far further west of 1997-1998 event.

 

[eagle1462010]

I predicted it a good while back..........and crick was challenging me then...........

History repeats.......

 

[Billy_Bob]

This animation shows just how fast the heat is leaving. And how fast the cold pool is forming to 450 meters