Tracking the el nino

[Old Rocks]

So, jc, you know better than all the scientists at NOAA, and in the other nations tracking the present El Nino?

 

[ScienceRocks]

So, jc, you know better than all the scientists at NOAA, and in the other nations tracking the present El Nino?

No wonder they think all of our science institutions are worthless and that they know it all. Jezzz. These people belong in a mental institution if they believe that.

 

[ScienceRocks]

ECMWF plumes..If this gets to 1.5 or even 2c like this says = wow!!!!

Update this week should be at +1.0C

Paaalease

And what do you disagree with?

All of it.

So, you disagree with the buoy reports??? And you think that the computer models that have increased our ability to forecast the weather 100 fold are also worthless. Laughable!

 

[ScienceRocks]

Latest (a little over a week ago) Jason-2 satellite via sea surface heights depicting an evolving canonical (traditional) El Nino underway.

This is smaller than original. Click this bar to view the full image. The original is 949x759.

Another computer model for later this year.

 

[Old Rocks]

Arctic News

And then there is this, not a model, but an actual measurement.

 

[westwall]

So, jc, you know better than all the scientists at NOAA, and in the other nations tracking the present El Nino?

They claimed that ever increasing CO2 would cause the global temperature to rise "inexorably", independent of natural variation, so yeah, as scientists they suck.

 

[Billy_Bob]

This week
Niño 4=+1.4°C
Niño 3.4=+1.0°C
Niño 3=+1.0°C
Niño 1+2=+1.9°C

El Nino at +1.0C and ONI up to +0.6C.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

I know all about NOAA modeling... The empirical facts however are showing something quite different..

 

[IanC]

Latest (a little over a week ago) Jason-2 satellite via sea surface heights depicting an evolving canonical (traditional) El Nino underway.

This is smaller than original. Click this bar to view the full image. The original is 949x759.

Another computer model for later this year.

interesting....so what you are saying is that the current conditions are at odds with the last 20 years of SLR?

here is an animation of the last twenty years of ENSO

 

[jc456]

ECMWF plumes..If this gets to 1.5 or even 2c like this says = wow!!!!

Update this week should be at +1.0C

Paaalease

And what do you disagree with?

All of it.

So, you disagree with the buoy reports??? And you think that the computer models that have increased our ability to forecast the weather 100 fold are also worthless. Laughable!

Are they bouy reports or models?

 

[ScienceRocks]

ECMWF plumes..If this gets to 1.5 or even 2c like this says = wow!!!!

Update this week should be at +1.0C

Paaalease

And what do you disagree with?

All of it.

So, you disagree with the buoy reports??? And you think that the computer models that have increased our ability to forecast the weather 100 fold are also worthless. Laughable!

Are they bouy reports or models?

The current sst(temperature) data are buoy reports of oceanic temperature, while the predictions are models. Most meteorology and climate forecasting is done by models as forecasting by hand wouldn't go out more then 48 hours...

Here is another set of models...If this is anywhere close to being accurate= one of the strongest nino's in history. I'll just say that the models for enso don't seem to be highly accurate.

 

[jc456]

Paaalease

And what do you disagree with?

All of it.

So, you disagree with the buoy reports??? And you think that the computer models that have increased our ability to forecast the weather 100 fold are also worthless. Laughable!

Are they bouy reports or models?

The current sst(temperature) data are buoy reports of oceanic temperature, while the predictions are models. Most meteorology and climate forecasting is done by models as forecasting by hand wouldn't go out more then 48 hours...

Here is another set of models...If this is anywhere close to being accurate= one of the strongest nino's in history. I'll just say that the models for enso don't seem to be highly accurate.

yeah yeah I get that, but where is the actual data? They can say on Monday that the five day forecast is X and the next day, that forecast is for shit and now we get to Y, and then later in the evening it gets to be something different again. Models are a guess. Only observed is what I'm interested in. And there isn't any posted without fudging the datasets. Now I find that outrageous.

 

[ScienceRocks]

Here is the buoyies in real time.

National Data Buoy Center

 

[jc456]

Here is the buoyies in real time.

National Data Buoy Center

so I went to the link and looked up bouys with historical data and wouldn't you know only about 3 are in the area for a el nino. So how is it you have charts that show an increase in any bouy that adds legitimacy to your claim?

 

[Billy_Bob]

Here is the buoyies in real time.

National Data Buoy Center

so I went to the link and looked up bouys with historical data and wouldn't you know only about 3 are in the area for a el nino. So how is it you have charts that show an increase in any bouy that adds legitimacy to your claim?

View attachment 40888

He doesn't. And NOAA is poking and hoping for the UN Power Grab happening later this year in Paris. We were plotting the deep cold hitting the equatorial region and found that it is killing heat in the mid latitude regions rapidly. New modeling shows we could drop into La Nina rapidly around mid June but the current El Nino is doomed in short order in any event.

If we do plummet the equatorial ocean temps mid June as the cold southern oceans are pulled northward its result will be a very cold winter in the US this next year. The AMO is once again shifting cold. The PDO is also shifting colder. Its going to be a substantial shift, when it happens, and it will be felt globally.

Once again facts show the alarmist hype to be over blown and wishful thinking.

 

[Old Rocks]

Oh my, our religious expert is now stating is IQ level in politics. And making dingbat predictions concerning climate and the ENSO. Interesting that you are now acknowledging the El Nino you stated did not exist. And have you done a little research into the relative sizes of molecules? You were about a magnitude off when you last addressed the subject, dumbkopf.

 

[Billy_Bob]

Here is the buoyies in real time.

National Data Buoy Center

so I went to the link and looked up bouys with historical data and wouldn't you know only about 3 are in the area for a el nino. So how is it you have charts that show an increase in any bouy that adds legitimacy to your claim?

View attachment 40888

He doesn't. And NOAA is poking and hoping for the UN Power Grab happening later this year in Paris. We were plotting the deep cold hitting the equatorial region and found that it is killing heat in the mid latitude regions rapidly. New modeling shows we could drop into La Nina rapidly around mid June but the current El Nino is doomed in short order in any event.

If we do plummet the equatorial ocean temps mid June as the cold southern oceans are pulled northward its result will be a very cold winter in the US this next year. The AMO is once again shifting cold. The PDO is also shifting colder. Its going to be a substantial shift, when it happens, and it will be felt globally.

Once again facts show the alarmist hype to be over blown and wishful thinking.

its already affecting the surface temperatures.

 

[Billy_Bob]

Oh my, our religious expert is now stating is IQ level in politics. And making dingbat predictions concerning climate and the ENSO. Interesting that you are now acknowledging the El Nino you stated did not exist. And have you done a little research into the relative sizes of molecules? You were about a magnitude off when you last addressed the subject, dumbkopf.

Yes Old Fraud we understand that you and your religion cant understand basic molecular weight and bonding, or how it might affect it in our atmosphere.. But, you shouldn't be so hard on yourself calling yourself A "Dumbkof" accurate as it may be however..

 

[Billy_Bob]

The cooling AMO... its happening now..

 

[ScienceRocks]

Latest update has El Niño at +1.0C

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
Investing in science is important...We do need more buoyies...Would be nice!

 

[jc456]

Latest update has El Niño at +1.0C

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
Investing in science is important...We do need more buoyies...Would be nice!

so I see you ignored my response. i called bullshit. You gave me a link and the link says your full of bullshit.