Tracking the el nino

[Billy_Bob]

If it was normal for your backyard to be at it's present temperature, why did you post that temperature as if it were unusual? It is not usual for Portland to be having the present temperatures, nor to be as dry as it has been. We are in a drought pattern, and our forests are getting close to the blowup point.

Dude, you really have a reading problem. It would be normal if your temperatures were in the 90s for ours to be lower due to convection so the pattern is normal! Comprehende?

The El Moki warm stream is dying. Without the southern oscillations there is no El Nino. Even NASA and NOAA have acknowledged this. They are still hoping that one will form, it has not but, the conditions for one to form have been present for over five months now.

The monsoonal flows are now present and established which has disrupted the Kelvin wave. This could have caused one to form once the southern oscillations begin. The southern oscillations may not even form as the cold pools are now deflecting the warm flow and dissipating it.

As of today my prediction that an El Nino would not form still stands. The pacific north west, Canada and Alaska have gotten all the heat from what has made it to the western shores. California has gotten much needed water from the monsoonal flows now established as have the mountain west regions of Utah, Nevada, Arizona, Idaho, Wyoming Montana, N Dakota, S Dakota and the plains states.

The deep flow of Arctic air this early in the season marks the onset of an early fall and winter. Today's high in Wyoming was a meager 65 degrees F and most other interior states were at that level as well. The Polar low is twice its average size (1980-2000) and the pressures the last two weeks have been steadily dropping, indicating significant strengthening. Look for much more of this to come. The polar intrusions will kill any chance for an El Nino to form and is evident in the atmospheric maps over the last five months. The Kelvin wave is being torn apart before it can form heavy lines and a cold Atlantic is slowing medianel flows, as shown in the lack of any hurricane season..

With Cold water now the norm around Greenland and Iceland we expect to see massive increases in Arctic ice in the region and Canada. The shift to rapid cooling is here. Now we see just how much of a reprieve the warm Pacific might give us. IF water vapor stays high through Dec its going to be a heavy wet and cold winter.

Old Fraud can keep his propaganda as real scientists look at the earth and not a model to see what it is that is changing empirically.

 

[Old Rocks]

My goodness, Mr. BillyBob, what on earth are you smoking?

June El Ni o update Damn the torpedoes full speed ahead NOAA Climate.gov

June El Niño update: Damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead
Author:
Emily Becker
Thursday, June 11, 2015
El Niño continues to pick up steam. NOAA CPC/IRI forecasters are now very confident that the event will continue through the fall (over 90% chance) and into the winter (~85% chance). Now that we’re emerging from the spring barrier, this month’s update provides a first guess of the potential strength of El Niño. It’s harder to predict the strength of the event than it is to predict its duration, so we are less confident about that, but forecasters currently favor a “strong” event for the fall/early winter. By “strong” we mean it’s expected that the three-month average sea surface temperature in the Niño3.4 region will peak at more than 1.5°C (2.7°F) above normal.

What’s happening right now?

During the month of May, we saw increases in a lot of the ENSO indicators. Sea surface temperature anomalies (the departure from average) were up all across the tropical Pacific, and the most recent Niño3.4 Index was 1.2°C. Both the lower-level and upper-level winds along the equator were substantially weaker than average last month, characteristic of El Niño’s weakenedWalker Circulation. This feedback between the higher sea surface temperature anomalies and the atmosphere is critical to both perpetuating and strengthening an El Niño event, and to communicating the effects of El Niño to other areas of the globe.

Signs of another downwelling Kelvin wave have begun to appear in the upper levels of the equatorial Pacific. This reinforcing source of warmer-than-average waters follows the strong Kelvin wave that has been slowly moving east since February. The consistently warmer waters are reflective of the slower changes we’d expect to see when the ocean-atmosphere system has settled into an ENSO event, as opposed to the shorter-term changes that dominate the rest of the time.

 

[Old Rocks]

65 for a high in Colorado? How about 90 degrees for Fairbanks, Alaska.


Mostly cloudy90°RealFeel® 88°


N

E

S

W

• Humidity: 27%
• Pressure: 29.81 in ↓
• UV Index: 1
• Cloud Cover: 75%
• Ceiling: 22196 ft
• Dew Point: 52° F
• Visibility: 10 mi

Fairbanks Current Weather - AccuWeather Forecast for AK 99701

 

[jc456]

65 for a high in Colorado? How about 90 degrees for Fairbanks, Alaska.


Mostly cloudy90°RealFeel® 88°


N

E

S

W

• Humidity: 27%
• Pressure: 29.81 in ↓
• UV Index: 1
• Cloud Cover: 75%
• Ceiling: 22196 ft
• Dew Point: 52° F
• Visibility: 10 mi

Fairbanks Current Weather - AccuWeather Forecast for AK 99701

How many times would you like me to explain why? Convection, ever hear of it

 

[Old Rocks]

How many times do you need to be told that you are full of it. The weather that Alaska has been in record warm territory for the last three months. Not at all normal.

 

[jc456]

How many times do you need to be told that you are full of it. The weather that Alaska has been in record warm territory for the last three months. Not at all normal.

So you're saying that Alaska never sees warm weather?

 

[Old Rocks]

You know, jc, you are as silly of an ass as Crusader Frank. Here is what Alaska has been seeing;

http://www.weather.com/storms/winter/news/alaska-compare-east-winter

Fairbanks is also experiencing a noticeable shortage of snowfall as of Feb. 27 with only 31 inches of snow this season, 25.1 inches below average. High temperatures have been above average in Fairbanks since Feb. 16, when temperatures climbed to 37 degrees. This is warmer than the highest temperature recorded on any day this February in Minneapolis (36 degrees), Marquette (24 degrees) and Portland, Maine (35 degrees).

The warm temperatures in Alaska have impacted the Iditarod Trail as the start of the race has been moved farther north to Fairbanks for the second time in 43 years due to lack of snow and what the Alaska Dispatch News calls "dangerous, open water" – rivers that would normally be iced over and easily crossed are flowing as liquid torrents.

Meanwhile just north of the Arctic Circle on Alaska's western coast, Kotzebue, Alaska, recorded a low of 33 degrees Sunday. Amazingly, Kotzebue had never previously recorded a temperature above freezing on this date in records going back to 1897. The previous record high of 31 for the date had stood since 1903 – but every single hour of Sunday was above freezing. For perspective, the average high for Feb. 22 is 7 degrees above zero with an average low of 7 degrees below zero.

On Tuesday morning, temperatures dropped to around 0 degrees in Barrow, the northernmost city in the United States. That may seem frigid, but it probably felt like spring compared to the Northeast, where numerous record lows were set, including Pittsburgh (minus 9 degrees), Indianapolis (minus 5 degrees), Providence, Rhode Island (minus 3 degrees) and Burlington, Vermont (minus 19 degrees).

 

[ScienceRocks]

There's a powerful el nino going on and if you can't see that then you're just wrong.

fact

 

[Old Rocks]

Alaska Temperatures Climate and Weather info - Temperature

Alaska’s climate is changing
The annual average temperature in Alaska has increased 3.5°F from 1949 to 2005. Temperatures have changed more in Alaska over the past 30 years than they have anywhere else on Earth: winters have warmed by a startling 5-6°F, compared with a global average of 1°F. That’s guaranteed to have dramatic effects in an Arctic landscape, where even small temperature changes can make the difference between freezing and melting. In Fairbanks, a city built on permafrost, the annual mean temperature is just 28°F. If it pops above zero, residents can say goodbye to the frozen ground beneath their feet, along with the free iceboxes in their basements. The impacts on wildlife, and the people who depend on it for their livelihoods, will be huge

3.5 F is a big jump, and represents a major change.

 

[jc456]

19 hours of sunshine in the summertime and you don't think it's going to get warm or hot in Alaska

 

[jc456]

Alaska Temperatures Climate and Weather info - Temperature

Alaska’s climate is changing
The annual average temperature in Alaska has increased 3.5°F from 1949 to 2005. Temperatures have changed more in Alaska over the past 30 years than they have anywhere else on Earth: winters have warmed by a startling 5-6°F, compared with a global average of 1°F. That’s guaranteed to have dramatic effects in an Arctic landscape, where even small temperature changes can make the difference between freezing and melting. In Fairbanks, a city built on permafrost, the annual mean temperature is just 28°F. If it pops above zero, residents can say goodbye to the frozen ground beneath their feet, along with the free iceboxes in their basements. The impacts on wildlife, and the people who depend on it for their livelihoods, will be huge

3.5 F is a big jump, and represents a major change.

Holy crap. So you're saying that all year round temperatures have gone up 3.5° F holy crap are you full of it

 

[jc456]

Alaska Temperatures Climate and Weather info - Temperature

Alaska’s climate is changing
The annual average temperature in Alaska has increased 3.5°F from 1949 to 2005. Temperatures have changed more in Alaska over the past 30 years than they have anywhere else on Earth: winters have warmed by a startling 5-6°F, compared with a global average of 1°F. That’s guaranteed to have dramatic effects in an Arctic landscape, where even small temperature changes can make the difference between freezing and melting. In Fairbanks, a city built on permafrost, the annual mean temperature is just 28°F. If it pops above zero, residents can say goodbye to the frozen ground beneath their feet, along with the free iceboxes in their basements. The impacts on wildlife, and the people who depend on it for their livelihoods, will be huge

3.5 F is a big jump, and represents a major change.

Oh, and more garbledy goo about the arctic too? Dude, sorry, you're wrong.

 

[Old Rocks]

So, the scientists that have taken the measurements in all the differant communities are lying to us? And if you had looked at the article, you would have known full well it did not say that. It said the winter temperatures have gone up a lot more than the summer temperatures, but the overall average was 3.5 F. Ah, well, jc, we all know that you flap yap without ever looking at what you are spewing shit on.

 

[jc456]

So, the scientists that have taken the measurements in all the differant communities are lying to us? And if you had looked at the article, you would have known full well it did not say that. It said the winter temperatures have gone up a lot more than the summer temperatures, but the overall average was 3.5 F. Ah, well, jc, we all know that you flap yap without ever looking at what you are spewing shit on.

Flap yapping is yours you own it. I don't believe anything about readings after outright admitance Of fudging. Show me the temperatures then! Let's see how they rose.

 

[mamooth]

From the Australians. Billy and jc apparently know better, of course.

ENSO Wrap-Up
---
Issued on 7 July 2015

The 2015 El Niño is likely to strengthen in the coming weeks, largely due to recent tropical cyclone activity. Several tropical cyclones, including a rare July cyclone in the southern hemisphere, have resulted in a strong reversal of trade winds near the equator. This is likely to increase temperatures below the surface of the tropical Pacific Ocean, which may in turn raise sea surface temperatures further in the coming months.

All international climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology suggest El Niño will persist until at least the end of 2015. Models also indicate that further warming is likely. Historically, El Niño reaches peak strength during late spring or early summer
---

 

[mamooth]

1997-1999 ENSO and Patterns of Coral Bleaching
---
The declared El Niño continues to build with both Kelvin waves propagating from the west into the eastern Pacific and wind shifts that further strengthen and maintain the El Niño. This El Niño is likely to further exacerbate anomalously warm waters off the U.S. west coast. Coral Reef Watch (CRW) continues to expect another global-scale bleaching in 2015 but hopefully not as severe as the 2010 event. However, some locations may suffer worse bleaching this year than in the past, just as we saw record thermal stress in the northernmost Mariana Islands and the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands in 2014.
---

 

[jc456]

From the Australians. Billy and jc apparently know better, of course.

ENSO Wrap-Up
---
Issued on 7 July 2015

The 2015 El Niño is likely to strengthen in the coming weeks, largely due to recent tropical cyclone activity. Several tropical cyclones, including a rare July cyclone in the southern hemisphere, have resulted in a strong reversal of trade winds near the equator. This is likely to increase temperatures below the surface of the tropical Pacific Ocean, which may in turn raise sea surface temperatures further in the coming months.

All international climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology suggest El Niño will persist until at least the end of 2015. Models also indicate that further warming is likely. Historically, El Niño reaches peak strength during late spring or early summer
---

65° in Chicago today nice warm July afternoon, laugh out loud

 

[ScienceRocks]

1.6c at 3.4

 

[jc456]

1.6c at 3.4

Dude, I don't care the fact is polar air is still coming to Chicago and Alaska is warm.

 

[ScienceRocks]

Latest MEI came out and it was a whopping +2.06 for May/June highest in 17 years. Readings that high are reserved basically for the super El Nino's (1991 had a brief period of that reading). That means in measurement of both ocean and atmospheric coupling, it is resembling that of 1982 and 1997.