Tracking the el nino

Cyclone Raquel forms as earliest big storm recorded off Australia s north-east
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Tropical Cyclone Raquel has formed in the south-west Pacific near the Solomon Islands, triggering the earliest cyclone warning on record issued for the Queensland zone.

"Certainly it's a unique scenario," Jess Carey, a spokesman from the bureau's Queensland office, said. "Since we've been tracking cyclones with satellite-based technology, we haven't seen one in July."

...

Cyclone Raquel is likely to trigger westward wind bursts that would reinforce the reversal of the easterly trade winds, shifting more heat to the west as is typical during El Nino events.

The previous mid-year event off north-eastern Australia – 1972's Cyclone Ida – came prior to a powerful El Nino event forming later that year.
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You really need to read your full article and not just cherry pick your points.

"One consequence of the cyclones in the western Pacific is that they may contribute to strengthening the El Nino now taking hold in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.

"It's plausible, it could happen," Mr Casey said. "

This cyclone is so far removed from the equatorial region that it will not affect heat transfer to the northern hemisphere. This is a late season storm and it is unstable given the surrounding cold water and low pressures which are causing wind shear and breaking it up.

Reaching Category II is going to be a real stretch. Category one maybe depending on upper level windshear. this thing will get pulled apart after going over the Solomon Islands.

I love the alarmist clap trap drivel on driving a massive El Nino... The water formations of 1972 were very different than today..
 
How would you categorize the last two typhoon seasons in the eastern and western Pacific Mr Weatherman?
 
sst_anom_new.gif


This week showing significant drop in region 3-4 and region 4 temps. The shift to cold has started in the Pacific. Cold pool west of Alaska is growing indicating the warm water is now leaving the area.

equpacsst_nowcast_anim30d.gif


Cold pools in the Atlantic are strengthening around Greenland and Iceland.

Looks like things are now changing a few weeks ahead of predictions.
 
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You've been putting these up for a couple of weeks now. With every one, we get your comments about this getting cold and that getting cold and the El Nino is as extinct as the dodo. But when we read the comments of the actual experts, it bears not the slightest resemblance to your commentary. Let's see...

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION

issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
11 June 2015

ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory

Synopsis: There is a greater than 90% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere fall 2015, and around an 85% chance it will last through the 2015-16 winter.

During May, sea surface temperatures (SST) anomalies increased across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1 & Fig. 2). All of the Niño indices were in excess of +1.0oC, with the largest anomalies in the eastern Pacific, indicated by recent weekly values of +1.4oC in Niño-3 and +1.9oC in Niño-1+2 (Fig. 2). After a slight decline in April, positive subsurface temperature anomalies strengthened during May (Fig. 3) in association with the progress of a downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave (Fig. 4). In addition, anomalous low-level westerly winds remained over most of the equatorial Pacific, and were accompanied by anomalous upper-level easterly winds. The traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) were both negative, consistent with enhanced convection over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific and suppressed convection over Indonesia (Fig. 5). Collectively, these atmospheric and oceanic features reflect an ongoing and strengthening El Niño.

Nearly all models predict El Niño to continue throughout 2015, with many predicting SST anomalies to increase into the late fall 2015 (Fig. 6). For the fall and early winter, the consensus of forecasters slightly favors a strong event (3-month values of the Niño-3.4 index +1.5oC or greater), relative to a weaker event. However, this prediction may vary in the months ahead as strength forecasts are the most challenging aspect of ENSO prediction. A moderate, weak, or even no El Niño remains possible, though at increasingly lesser odds. There is a greater than 90% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere fall 2015, and around an 85% chance it will last through the 2015-16 winter (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

Across the contiguous United States, temperature and precipitation impacts associated with El Niño are expected to remain minimal during the Northern Hemisphere summer and increase into the late fall and winter (the 3-month seasonal outlook will be updated on Thursday June 18th). El Niño will likely be a contributor to a below normal Atlantic hurricane season, and above-normal hurricane seasons in both the central and eastern Pacific hurricane basins (click Hurricane season outlook for more).

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts are also updated monthly in theForecast Forum of CPC's Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 9 July 2015. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: [email protected].


Climate Prediction Center
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
NOAA/National Weather Service
College Park, MD 20740

Climate Prediction Center ENSO Diagnostic Discussion
 
sst_anom_new.gif


This week showing significant drop in region 3-4 and region 4 temps. The shift to cold has started in the Pacific. Cold pool west of Alaska is growing indicating the warm water is now leaving the area.

equpacsst_nowcast_anim30d.gif


Cold pools in the Atlantic are strengthening around Greenland and Iceland.

Looks like things are now changing a few weeks ahead of predictions.
Sure, Mr. Billy Bob, sure. Perhaps you and Mr. Westwall can get together and tell us just how much 2015 is going to break records for being a cold year?
 
You've been putting these up for a couple of weeks now. With every one, we get your comments about this getting cold and that getting cold and the El Nino is as extinct as the dodo. But when we read the comments of the actual experts, it bears not the slightest resemblance to your commentary. Let's see...

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION

issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
11 June 2015

ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory

Synopsis: There is a greater than 90% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere fall 2015, and around an 85% chance it will last through the 2015-16 winter.

During May, sea surface temperatures (SST) anomalies increased across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1 & Fig. 2). All of the Niño indices were in excess of +1.0oC, with the largest anomalies in the eastern Pacific, indicated by recent weekly values of +1.4oC in Niño-3 and +1.9oC in Niño-1+2 (Fig. 2). After a slight decline in April, positive subsurface temperature anomalies strengthened during May (Fig. 3) in association with the progress of a downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave (Fig. 4). In addition, anomalous low-level westerly winds remained over most of the equatorial Pacific, and were accompanied by anomalous upper-level easterly winds. The traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) were both negative, consistent with enhanced convection over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific and suppressed convection over Indonesia (Fig. 5). Collectively, these atmospheric and oceanic features reflect an ongoing and strengthening El Niño.

Nearly all models predict El Niño to continue throughout 2015, with many predicting SST anomalies to increase into the late fall 2015 (Fig. 6). For the fall and early winter, the consensus of forecasters slightly favors a strong event (3-month values of the Niño-3.4 index +1.5oC or greater), relative to a weaker event. However, this prediction may vary in the months ahead as strength forecasts are the most challenging aspect of ENSO prediction. A moderate, weak, or even no El Niño remains possible, though at increasingly lesser odds. There is a greater than 90% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere fall 2015, and around an 85% chance it will last through the 2015-16 winter (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

Across the contiguous United States, temperature and precipitation impacts associated with El Niño are expected to remain minimal during the Northern Hemisphere summer and increase into the late fall and winter (the 3-month seasonal outlook will be updated on Thursday June 18th). El Niño will likely be a contributor to a below normal Atlantic hurricane season, and above-normal hurricane seasons in both the central and eastern Pacific hurricane basins (click Hurricane season outlook for more).

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts are also updated monthly in theForecast Forum of CPC's Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 9 July 2015. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: [email protected].


Climate Prediction Center
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
NOAA/National Weather Service
College Park, MD 20740

Climate Prediction Center ENSO Diagnostic Discussion
So thank you for posting all of that. However, the cold air from the Arctic keeps dropping down into the mid US states Sun Tech is a continuance of the past two years so El Niño has had no relevance in the United States today. Anyone can predict anything anytime and say it over and over that doesn't make it right . BTW, there hasn't been any warming in the last 17 years.
 
  • FRI

    98° 61°
  • SAT

    97° 64°
  • SUN

    100° 65°
  • MON

    99° 62°
  • TUE

    97° 62°
  • WED

    99° 63°
  • THU

    92° 61°
I just finished a 12 hour shift rebuilding a leveler in a steel mill. Will be working on it again tomorrow, and Sunday, also. Now just tell me that we are not warming. You see, we normally have 11 days of 90+ temps in Portland, Oregon in one summer. I think we had more than that in just June.
 
This week showing significant drop in region 3-4 and region 4 temps. The shift to cold has started in the Pacific. Cold pool west of Alaska is growing indicating the warm water is now leaving the area.

Cold pools in the Atlantic are strengthening around Greenland and Iceland.

Looks like things are now changing a few weeks ahead of predictions.

I want to know where you get this stuff. It doesn't match ANYTHING real meteorologists are saying. Is this the weather forecast from the Fox News/Human Events consortium? Or did this come out of your head? Have you somewhere gotten the idea that you know what you're looking at here? I would have thought that 2014-2015 "What el Nino, I don't see an el Nino" would have knocked that idea out of your head. It certainly removed it from mine.
 
You've been putting these up for a couple of weeks now. With every one, we get your comments about this getting cold and that getting cold and the El Nino is as extinct as the dodo. But when we read the comments of the actual experts, it bears not the slightest resemblance to your commentary. Let's see...

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION

issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
11 June 2015

ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory

Synopsis: There is a greater than 90% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere fall 2015, and around an 85% chance it will last through the 2015-16 winter.

During May, sea surface temperatures (SST) anomalies increased across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1 & Fig. 2). All of the Niño indices were in excess of +1.0oC, with the largest anomalies in the eastern Pacific, indicated by recent weekly values of +1.4oC in Niño-3 and +1.9oC in Niño-1+2 (Fig. 2). After a slight decline in April, positive subsurface temperature anomalies strengthened during May (Fig. 3) in association with the progress of a downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave (Fig. 4). In addition, anomalous low-level westerly winds remained over most of the equatorial Pacific, and were accompanied by anomalous upper-level easterly winds. The traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) were both negative, consistent with enhanced convection over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific and suppressed convection over Indonesia (Fig. 5). Collectively, these atmospheric and oceanic features reflect an ongoing and strengthening El Niño.

Nearly all models predict El Niño to continue throughout 2015, with many predicting SST anomalies to increase into the late fall 2015 (Fig. 6). For the fall and early winter, the consensus of forecasters slightly favors a strong event (3-month values of the Niño-3.4 index +1.5oC or greater), relative to a weaker event. However, this prediction may vary in the months ahead as strength forecasts are the most challenging aspect of ENSO prediction. A moderate, weak, or even no El Niño remains possible, though at increasingly lesser odds. There is a greater than 90% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere fall 2015, and around an 85% chance it will last through the 2015-16 winter (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

Across the contiguous United States, temperature and precipitation impacts associated with El Niño are expected to remain minimal during the Northern Hemisphere summer and increase into the late fall and winter (the 3-month seasonal outlook will be updated on Thursday June 18th). El Niño will likely be a contributor to a below normal Atlantic hurricane season, and above-normal hurricane seasons in both the central and eastern Pacific hurricane basins (click Hurricane season outlook for more).

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts are also updated monthly in theForecast Forum of CPC's Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 9 July 2015. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: [email protected].


Climate Prediction Center
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
NOAA/National Weather Service
College Park, MD 20740

Climate Prediction Center ENSO Diagnostic Discussion

Too Funny... They left themselves a major out to runaway from the prediction.. "However, this prediction may vary in the months ahead as strength forecasts are the most challenging aspect of ENSO prediction. A moderate, weak, or even no El Niño remains possible, though at increasingly lesser odds."

Even they are hedging their bets... and its a serious hedge! 'WE might not see nothin....but its gonna get hotter, I swear!' They see the collapse but are afraid that mentioning it might not sit well with King Obama and his left wit drones.
 
Mr. Billy Bob, who is hedging their bets? You stated that there would absolutely be no El Nino. Now you are saying, well, maybe a moderate or weak, maybe no El Nino remains possible, though the odds are decreasing for that. Then you go on to rail about the President in a way that makes no sense at all. Perhaps cut back on the amount you drink or smoke?
 
You've been putting these up for a couple of weeks now. With every one, we get your comments about this getting cold and that getting cold and the El Nino is as extinct as the dodo. But when we read the comments of the actual experts, it bears not the slightest resemblance to your commentary. Let's see...

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION

issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
11 June 2015

ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory

Synopsis: There is a greater than 90% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere fall 2015, and around an 85% chance it will last through the 2015-16 winter.

During May, sea surface temperatures (SST) anomalies increased across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1 & Fig. 2). All of the Niño indices were in excess of +1.0oC, with the largest anomalies in the eastern Pacific, indicated by recent weekly values of +1.4oC in Niño-3 and +1.9oC in Niño-1+2 (Fig. 2). After a slight decline in April, positive subsurface temperature anomalies strengthened during May (Fig. 3) in association with the progress of a downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave (Fig. 4). In addition, anomalous low-level westerly winds remained over most of the equatorial Pacific, and were accompanied by anomalous upper-level easterly winds. The traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) were both negative, consistent with enhanced convection over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific and suppressed convection over Indonesia (Fig. 5). Collectively, these atmospheric and oceanic features reflect an ongoing and strengthening El Niño.

Nearly all models predict El Niño to continue throughout 2015, with many predicting SST anomalies to increase into the late fall 2015 (Fig. 6). For the fall and early winter, the consensus of forecasters slightly favors a strong event (3-month values of the Niño-3.4 index +1.5oC or greater), relative to a weaker event. However, this prediction may vary in the months ahead as strength forecasts are the most challenging aspect of ENSO prediction. A moderate, weak, or even no El Niño remains possible, though at increasingly lesser odds. There is a greater than 90% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere fall 2015, and around an 85% chance it will last through the 2015-16 winter (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

Across the contiguous United States, temperature and precipitation impacts associated with El Niño are expected to remain minimal during the Northern Hemisphere summer and increase into the late fall and winter (the 3-month seasonal outlook will be updated on Thursday June 18th). El Niño will likely be a contributor to a below normal Atlantic hurricane season, and above-normal hurricane seasons in both the central and eastern Pacific hurricane basins (click Hurricane season outlook for more).

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts are also updated monthly in theForecast Forum of CPC's Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 9 July 2015. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: [email protected].


Climate Prediction Center
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
NOAA/National Weather Service
College Park, MD 20740

Climate Prediction Center ENSO Diagnostic Discussion

Too Funny... They left themselves a major out to runaway from the prediction.. "However, this prediction may vary in the months ahead as strength forecasts are the most challenging aspect of ENSO prediction. A moderate, weak, or even no El Niño remains possible, though at increasingly lesser odds."

Even they are hedging their bets... and its a serious hedge! 'WE might not see nothin....but its gonna get hotter, I swear!' They see the collapse but are afraid that mentioning it might not sit well with King Obama and his left wit drones.
it's a prediction, therefore, an automatic out is always available. it is funny stuff though. gonna be 69 in Chicago tomorrow. The high. cold air still pouring out of the arctic and still no el nino.
 
Mr. Billy Bob, who is hedging their bets? You stated that there would absolutely be no El Nino. Now you are saying, well, maybe a moderate or weak, maybe no El Nino remains possible, though the odds are decreasing for that. Then you go on to rail about the President in a way that makes no sense at all. Perhaps cut back on the amount you drink or smoke?
you really need how to read what another poster posts. Unless it is intentional. Please quote where Billy made any such statement.
 
This week showing significant drop in region 3-4 and region 4 temps. The shift to cold has started in the Pacific. Cold pool west of Alaska is growing indicating the warm water is now leaving the area.

Cold pools in the Atlantic are strengthening around Greenland and Iceland.

Looks like things are now changing a few weeks ahead of predictions.

I want to know where you get this stuff. It doesn't match ANYTHING real meteorologists are saying. Is this the weather forecast from the Fox News/Human Events consortium? Or did this come out of your head? Have you somewhere gotten the idea that you know what you're looking at here? I would have thought that 2014-2015 "What el Nino, I don't see an el Nino" would have knocked that idea out of your head. It certainly removed it from mine.
so, are meteorologists scientists or meteorologists? you get all wound up in your lies, you forgot that their statements don't count on climate. Or did you forget?
 
You've been putting these up for a couple of weeks now. With every one, we get your comments about this getting cold and that getting cold and the El Nino is as extinct as the dodo. But when we read the comments of the actual experts, it bears not the slightest resemblance to your commentary. Let's see...

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION

issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
11 June 2015

ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory

Synopsis: There is a greater than 90% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere fall 2015, and around an 85% chance it will last through the 2015-16 winter.

During May, sea surface temperatures (SST) anomalies increased across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1 & Fig. 2). All of the Niño indices were in excess of +1.0oC, with the largest anomalies in the eastern Pacific, indicated by recent weekly values of +1.4oC in Niño-3 and +1.9oC in Niño-1+2 (Fig. 2). After a slight decline in April, positive subsurface temperature anomalies strengthened during May (Fig. 3) in association with the progress of a downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave (Fig. 4). In addition, anomalous low-level westerly winds remained over most of the equatorial Pacific, and were accompanied by anomalous upper-level easterly winds. The traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) were both negative, consistent with enhanced convection over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific and suppressed convection over Indonesia (Fig. 5). Collectively, these atmospheric and oceanic features reflect an ongoing and strengthening El Niño.

Nearly all models predict El Niño to continue throughout 2015, with many predicting SST anomalies to increase into the late fall 2015 (Fig. 6). For the fall and early winter, the consensus of forecasters slightly favors a strong event (3-month values of the Niño-3.4 index +1.5oC or greater), relative to a weaker event. However, this prediction may vary in the months ahead as strength forecasts are the most challenging aspect of ENSO prediction. A moderate, weak, or even no El Niño remains possible, though at increasingly lesser odds. There is a greater than 90% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere fall 2015, and around an 85% chance it will last through the 2015-16 winter (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

Across the contiguous United States, temperature and precipitation impacts associated with El Niño are expected to remain minimal during the Northern Hemisphere summer and increase into the late fall and winter (the 3-month seasonal outlook will be updated on Thursday June 18th). El Niño will likely be a contributor to a below normal Atlantic hurricane season, and above-normal hurricane seasons in both the central and eastern Pacific hurricane basins (click Hurricane season outlook for more).

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts are also updated monthly in theForecast Forum of CPC's Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 9 July 2015. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: [email protected].


Climate Prediction Center
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
NOAA/National Weather Service
College Park, MD 20740

Climate Prediction Center ENSO Diagnostic Discussion

Too Funny... They left themselves a major out to runaway from the prediction.. "However, this prediction may vary in the months ahead as strength forecasts are the most challenging aspect of ENSO prediction. A moderate, weak, or even no El Niño remains possible, though at increasingly lesser odds."

Even they are hedging their bets... and its a serious hedge! 'WE might not see nothin....but its gonna get hotter, I swear!' They see the collapse but are afraid that mentioning it might not sit well with King Obama and his left wit drones.
it's a prediction, therefore, an automatic out is always available. it is funny stuff though. gonna be 69 in Chicago tomorrow. The high. cold air still pouring out of the arctic and still no el nino.
That is in your backyard, this is in mine;

http://www.weather.com/weather/monthly/l/USOR0275:1:US
 
If it was normal for your backyard to be at it's present temperature, why did you post that temperature as if it were unusual? It is not usual for Portland to be having the present temperatures, nor to be as dry as it has been. We are in a drought pattern, and our forests are getting close to the blowup point.
 
If it was normal for your backyard to be at it's present temperature, why did you post that temperature as if it were unusual? It is not usual for Portland to be having the present temperatures, nor to be as dry as it has been. We are in a drought pattern, and our forests are getting close to the blowup point.
Dude, you really have a reading problem. It would be normal if your temperatures were in the 90s for ours to be lower due to convection so the pattern is normal! Comprehende?
 

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