Tracking the el nino

[Billy_Bob]

Looks like the replenishing waters for the Blob are now decoupled and surface temps are now cooling rapidly... Cold pockets in region 4 and the southern hemisphere are blocking further El Nino development. -0.5 degree water anomaly is now penetrating to the arctic. just like the Atlantic cool is now taking over. Watch for the temperature flip in the next couple of months.

 

[Billy_Bob]

Latest MEI came out and it was a whopping +2.06 for May/June highest in 17 years. Readings that high are reserved basically for the super El Nino's (1991 had a brief period of that reading). That means in measurement of both ocean and atmospheric coupling, it is resembling that of 1982 and 1997.

Where did you get that? 1.37 was the highest noted by everyone i can find.

 

[Billy_Bob]

Definitely decoupled and cooling... Note the cold pocket developing near the end of the loop on July 8th near the Baja Tip. The flip is beginning.

 

[depotoo]

Coral reefs can recover after damage new UF study shows - The Independent Florida Alligator Campus
Isolated Coral Reefs Can Heal Themselves Coral Bleaching
And reefs do recover on their own-
Coral reefs may be more independent and resilient than previously thought.

New research shows that an isolated reef off the northwest coast of Australia that was severely damaged by a period of warming in 1998 has regenerated in a very short time to become nearly as healthy as it was before. What surprises scientists, though, is that the reef regenerated by itself, found a study published today (April 4) in the journal Science.

1997-1999 ENSO and Patterns of Coral Bleaching
---
The declared El Niño continues to build with both Kelvin waves propagating from the west into the eastern Pacific and wind shifts that further strengthen and maintain the El Niño. This El Niño is likely to further exacerbate anomalously warm waters off the U.S. west coast. Coral Reef Watch (CRW) continues to expect another global-scale bleaching in 2015 but hopefully not as severe as the 2010 event. However, some locations may suffer worse bleaching this year than in the past, just as we saw record thermal stress in the northernmost Mariana Islands and the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands in 2014.
---

 

[depotoo]

El nino is nothing new, you know. 1997 had as strong an el nino, and the strong return could help bring much needed moisture to the sw.

 

[depotoo]

this would be good news for drought stricken CA.

 

[Billy_Bob]

this would be good news for drought stricken CA.

The desert south west would receive a good amount of moisture if this persists. The cold pocket now forming near the tip of Baja will not be welcomed by those folks. It signals the flip is about to occur and that warm water is now no longer being pumped up the coast line, cold water is and it is surfacing.

 

[ScienceRocks]

El nino is nothing new, you know. 1997 had as strong an el nino, and the strong return could help bring much needed moisture to the sw.

You think I don't know that? The point of this thread isn't to prove rather it is new or not, but to simply track a historic nino on the level of 1997. Research and understanding of our planet is a ever evolving and advancing field that demands such observation.

But, heck, I guess you'd rather just live in caves and not study such events.

 

[ScienceRocks]

this would be good news for drought stricken CA.

Yes it would...Can't wait!!!

 

[eagle1462010]

El Nino Could Be One of Strongest in Past 50 Years

 

[eagle1462010]

I wonder if Crick remembers me saying this stuff a while back................lol

He immediately denied it, then craw fished.................and then tries to pin it on humans again...........

 

[Crick]

Are you Chris Farley?

 

[eagle1462010]

Are you Chris Farley?

You don't remember do yah..................
You said maybe you should tell these guys...............
And you tried to get me to commit that it would eventually bring rain.............

And I said yes...................

And now the El Nino continues to gain strength.................possibly the strongest in 50 years.............
And I stand by my posts back then....................

You craw fished on that thread buddy................and then went on to go YOU KNOW TEMP WILL RISE...............No kidding was my response..............

Anyway..................My opinion of a strong El Nino might come true..............and if it goes down like 98 then California gets some much needed rain.

 

[Crick]

I don't know what you're talking about. I said I should tell who what? And I tried to get you to commit that what would eventually bring rain?

 

[Old Rocks]

this would be good news for drought stricken CA.

The desert south west would receive a good amount of moisture if this persists. The cold pocket now forming near the tip of Baja will not be welcomed by those folks. It signals the flip is about to occur and that warm water is now no longer being pumped up the coast line, cold water is and it is surfacing.

LOL. I do believe that we will still be waiting for that flip in January of 2016.

 

[jc456]

this would be good news for drought stricken CA.

The desert south west would receive a good amount of moisture if this persists. The cold pocket now forming near the tip of Baja will not be welcomed by those folks. It signals the flip is about to occur and that warm water is now no longer being pumped up the coast line, cold water is and it is surfacing.

LOL. I do believe that we will still be waiting for that flip in January of 2016.

And yet, The weather pattern in the Midwest is still the same.Below normal temperatures in the north part of the Midwest coming south, still.

 

[Old Rocks]

this would be good news for drought stricken CA.

The desert south west would receive a good amount of moisture if this persists. The cold pocket now forming near the tip of Baja will not be welcomed by those folks. It signals the flip is about to occur and that warm water is now no longer being pumped up the coast line, cold water is and it is surfacing.

LOL. I do believe that we will still be waiting for that flip in January of 2016.

And yet, The weather pattern in the Midwest is still the same.Below normal temperatures in the north part of the Midwest coming south, still.

Boy, jc, that certainly looks like below temperatures going south;

http://www.weather.com/maps/current

US Current Temperatures

 

[ScienceRocks]

Strong!!!!

Text of CPC weekly update that has Nino 3.4 at +1.5C.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf


Niño 4: +1.1°C
Niño 3.4: +1.5°C
Niño 3: +2.1C
Niño 1+2: +3.3°C

 

[Old Rocks]

My Goodness, ol' Billy Bob done crashed and burned one more time.

Oh, that's right, it is all altered data, just to prevent the world class forecasts of Billy Bob from looking like they are so.

Yes, a strong El Nino right now, and maybe a super El Nino by fall. And record for precipitation and heat being set around the world.

 

[jc456]

My Goodness, ol' Billy Bob done crashed and burned one more time.

Oh, that's right, it is all altered data, just to prevent the world class forecasts of Billy Bob from looking like they are so.

Yes, a strong El Nino right now, and maybe a super El Nino by fall. And record for precipitation and heat being set around the world.

where is there a strong El Nino? The oceans? LOL still no empirical evidence of el nino conditions in the US. Still none.