Tracking the el nino

[Crick]

It's going to cause the Earth's surface temperatures to increase.

 

[eagle1462010]

It's going to cause the Earth's surface temperatures to increase.

So..................it's a natural event that goes through cycles............

 

[Crick]

Yes. Are you going to suggest that global warming is all caused by the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)?

 

[CrusaderFrank]

You don't see that enormous blob of deep red running from Hawaii to Ecuador in the 2015 graphic that is NOT present in last year's data? The El Nino doesn't take place in the South Atlantic Mr Weatherman.

Is that the Blob who your global warming?

 

[CrusaderFrank]

The anti-science and anti-government people are here. LOL

Consensus and denier are anti-science words

As defined by people who don't believe in science.

When you say belief, you sound like a fundamentalist

 

[Liminal]

The anti-science and anti-government people are here. LOL

Consensus and denier are anti-science words

As defined by people who don't believe in science.

When you say belief, you sound like a fundamentalist

If words confuse you so often you should probably try a dictionary.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

The anti-science and anti-government people are here. LOL

Consensus and denier are anti-science words

As defined by people who don't believe in science.

When you say belief, you sound like a fundamentalist

If words confuse you so often you should probably try a dictionary.

Rothschild money and power is driving the AGWCult so its not surprising that you'll say and do anything to please your masters.

Even the IPCC admits that global warming is a scam to redistribute wealth.

Think of it this way, whenever you say denier or consensus, you're admitting you essentially got scammed by the lawyer representing the jailed Nigerian finance minister; there's no more truth to man-made global climate warming change than there is to the diamond mine you now own. You got scammed

 

[eagle1462010]

Yes. Are you going to suggest that global warming is all caused by the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)?

Are you going to suggest that it's all caused by man as normal....................

Your frothing at the mouth over a Natural event saying...........see.........it's warming........I told you so...............pathetic.

 

[Crick]

Why are you unable to answer my question? It is that which could suggest pathos.

I am not going to suggest that it is "all" caused by man. I am going to contend - based on the opinion of the vast majority of the experts in this field - that the primary cause of the warming observed over the last 150 years is the greenhouse effect acting on human GHG emissions and deforestation. Do you have a different opinion?

 

[eagle1462010]

Why are you unable to answer my question? It is that which could suggest pathos.

I am not going to suggest that it is "all" caused by man. I am going to contend - based on the opinion of the vast majority of the experts in this field - that the primary cause of the warming observed over the last 150 years is the greenhouse effect acting on human GHG emissions and deforestation. Do you have a different opinion?

Why in thread after thread have you dodged the question on how much of it is caused by man and how much by nature?
Which goes directly to the 97% claim and the science is settled dispute?

Your and your side say the science is settled................No it is not..........because you can't tell me how much is via Nature and how much is via man.....................

El Nino is a natural event that changes the Earth's weather pattern.........it happens in cycles........some strong and some weak........and has been doing so for a very long time............no or yes...........so I see it as a natural event..........

You see it as an opportunity to say LOOK GLOBAL WARMING.........YOU DENIERS.............

But you can't answer the question on how much is via man made...........You just continue your dogma as the predictions and computer models end up being wrong.........

Then you say........there wasn't a period of cooling in the last decade........then you go yes there was..........and then back to there was no cooling...........as places like the IPCC manipulate data when they bank rolls.....oops guesses go wrong.

 

[eagle1462010]

When I first brought up El Nino..........on another of many threads..............you immediately became defensive.............

and said YOU SHOULD TELL IT TO THESE GUYS.............Listed the reports that said it wouldn't happen......remember that.......

Then you shifted to ask me if I thought El Nino would end the drought in California........

I said yes..........that is what I think will happen......given what has happened in the past..........

Then you said.........you know that will make it warmer..........and I said no shit Sherlock.........

In other words you DANCED.............to whatever suits your cause..........
You can't tell me how much is man made and how much is nature.........so that is all you can do...........

Dance.............

El Nino.............Jet streams are already shifting bringing more rain to the lower 48.........if it shifts more via the warmer waters in the Central Pacific.........California will most likely get some much needed rain..........via a NATURAL EVENT........and not your continued claims that we are basically causing it all..............



Enjoy it again......fraud.

 

[Old Rocks]

Yes, El Nino is a natural event. The increasing intensity of the El Nino is not a natural event. Look at the graph, even though it only goes to 2011, you can see the increasing intensity and increasing temperatures, not only in the El Nino events, but also in the neutral ENSO, and even increasing temperatures in the La Nina events. In fact, the last two La Nina's have been warmer than the 1994 El Nino. Last year, on a neutral ENSO we had a year that matched 1998, 2005, and 2010. This year, on what looks like a strong El Nino, I think that we will see a new record set.

We know that CO2, CH4, and NOx are GHGs. We know that increasing these gases in the atmosphere will create a warmer atmosphere. We have evidence that points this out from past geological eras. The physics of the situation does not change because this time it is mankind, rather than a natural event that is putting the GHGs into the atmosphere.

 

[eagle1462010]

Yes, El Nino is a natural event. The increasing intensity of the El Nino is not a natural event. Look at the graph, even though it only goes to 2011, you can see the increasing intensity and increasing temperatures, not only in the El Nino events, but also in the neutral ENSO, and even increasing temperatures in the La Nina events. In fact, the last two La Nina's have been warmer than the 1994 El Nino. Last year, on a neutral ENSO we had a year that matched 1998, 2005, and 2010. This year, on what looks like a strong El Nino, I think that we will see a new record set.

We know that CO2, CH4, and NOx are GHGs. We know that increasing these gases in the atmosphere will create a warmer atmosphere. We have evidence that points this out from past geological eras. The physics of the situation does not change because this time it is mankind, rather than a natural event that is putting the GHGs into the atmosphere.

Climate Prediction Center - Monitoring Data ENSO Impacts on the U.S. - Previous Events

Prove it.

 

[Billy_Bob]

Yes, El Nino is a natural event. The increasing intensity of the El Nino is not a natural event. Look at the graph, even though it only goes to 2011, you can see the increasing intensity and increasing temperatures, not only in the El Nino events, but also in the neutral ENSO, and even increasing temperatures in the La Nina events. In fact, the last two La Nina's have been warmer than the 1994 El Nino. Last year, on a neutral ENSO we had a year that matched 1998, 2005, and 2010. This year, on what looks like a strong El Nino, I think that we will see a new record set.

We know that CO2, CH4, and NOx are GHGs. We know that increasing these gases in the atmosphere will create a warmer atmosphere. We have evidence that points this out from past geological eras. The physics of the situation does not change because this time it is mankind, rather than a natural event that is putting the GHGs into the atmosphere.

You cant define what is naturally occurring and what is man induced. The IPCC and other organizations said that the magic CO2 monster is responsible for all warming since 1950. Yet the rate of warming since 1950 is less than the warming before 1950. They have no proof of this assumption.

Two questions come to mind.. 1) how did you turn off natural variation..?. 2) And, Since you can now control earths climate why has it stopped warming?

Basic science show the AGW cult to be just that, a cult. An El Nino is a natural event and man has little effect if any on it. La Nina is also a natural event which is now building in both oceans. When this flips later this year its going to be a very rude cool down. Will you also blame this on man and CO2?

 

[Billy_Bob]

El Nino is pushing warmer water to the west, from the equator...........It is a natural cycle and it always pushes hot water across the pacific released from the ocean depths near the coast.............

When the Pacific gets hot enough it will help lower the jet stream down..........and we are seeing some of the effects already..........and will bring rain to the lower 48..................eventually hitting even California..................

It's pushing a wave of warm water.................Just as it has done naturally for a long time when it comes............

The SOI is negative. There are very weak westerlies but now that we have passed summer solstice, the northern hemisphere and solar strength is now declining. The resulting kelvin wave , weak as it is, will disappear in short order.

What is of concern to me is the amount of very cold water amassing near the equator. Were about to experience a very rapid flip to cold. The amount of cold water suggests it will be a deep flip to cooling. Current maps show a -2 to -3 deg C change. Depending on when the flip occurs this fall and winter could be very sever for most of the western US.

 

[eagle1462010]

El Nino is pushing warmer water to the west, from the equator...........It is a natural cycle and it always pushes hot water across the pacific released from the ocean depths near the coast.............

When the Pacific gets hot enough it will help lower the jet stream down..........and we are seeing some of the effects already..........and will bring rain to the lower 48..................eventually hitting even California..................

It's pushing a wave of warm water.................Just as it has done naturally for a long time when it comes............

The SOI is negative. There are very weak westerlies but now that we have passed summer solstice, the northern hemisphere and solar strength is now declining. The resulting kelvin wave , weak as it is, will disappear in short order.

What is of concern to me is the amount of very cold water amassing near the equator. Were about to experience a very rapid flip to cold. The amount of cold water suggests it will be a deep flip to cooling.

Not sure......last I saw was the warm water moving West....we'll see...........but its still a natural event which they so desperately want to be man made.

LOL

 

[Billy_Bob]

El Nino is pushing warmer water to the west, from the equator...........It is a natural cycle and it always pushes hot water across the pacific released from the ocean depths near the coast.............

When the Pacific gets hot enough it will help lower the jet stream down..........and we are seeing some of the effects already..........and will bring rain to the lower 48..................eventually hitting even California..................

It's pushing a wave of warm water.................Just as it has done naturally for a long time when it comes............

The SOI is negative. There are very weak westerlies but now that we have passed summer solstice, the northern hemisphere and solar strength is now declining. The resulting kelvin wave , weak as it is, will disappear in short order.

What is of concern to me is the amount of very cold water amassing near the equator. Were about to experience a very rapid flip to cold. The amount of cold water suggests it will be a deep flip to cooling.

Not sure......last I saw was the warm water moving West....we'll see...........but its still a natural event which they so desperately want to be man made.

LOL

Time will tell...

 

[Old Rocks]

Yes, El Nino is a natural event. The increasing intensity of the El Nino is not a natural event. Look at the graph, even though it only goes to 2011, you can see the increasing intensity and increasing temperatures, not only in the El Nino events, but also in the neutral ENSO, and even increasing temperatures in the La Nina events. In fact, the last two La Nina's have been warmer than the 1994 El Nino. Last year, on a neutral ENSO we had a year that matched 1998, 2005, and 2010. This year, on what looks like a strong El Nino, I think that we will see a new record set.

We know that CO2, CH4, and NOx are GHGs. We know that increasing these gases in the atmosphere will create a warmer atmosphere. We have evidence that points this out from past geological eras. The physics of the situation does not change because this time it is mankind, rather than a natural event that is putting the GHGs into the atmosphere.

Climate Prediction Center - Monitoring Data ENSO Impacts on the U.S. - Previous Events

Prove it.

The proof of the effectiveness of water vapor, CO2, CH4, and NOx as GHGs was proven in 1858 by John Tyndall. The graph is evidence of the increasing intensity of the weather associated with the natural ENSO cycles.

 

[Old Rocks]

Mr. Billy Bob, thus far you have been correct 0% of the time. I really don't expect to ruin that perfect scorecard with your latest prediction.

 

[eagle1462010]

Global Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies National Centers for Environmental Information NCEI

Nice red line across the equator....set the dates at this site as desired..........seems the hotter water is being drawn towards the equator to me...............