Tracking the el nino

[jc456]

Fuck, you are one dumb ass, jc. Every zone is above 1.0. 0.5 represents an El Nino. That is last weeks numbers. The prediction is for the El Nino to continue through to 2016.

So fucking what? Name me weather where it is

 

[Old Rocks]

What the hell are you babbling about?

 

[jc456]

What the hell are you babbling about?

What is it you're babbling about f00l?

 

[Crick]

JC, you've been shown, by your own posts, over and over and over again, to have an exceedingly poor understanding of science in general and climate science in particular. That you should be the number one poster in this forum for your POV does your side little good.

Education, in any quantity, is a good thing. Do us all a favor and get some.

 

[jc456]

JC, you've been shown, by your own posts, over and over and over again, to have an exceedingly poor understanding of science in general and climate science in particular. That you should be the number one poster in this forum for your POV does your side little good.

Education, in any quantity, is a good thing. Do us all a favor and get some.

hahahahhahaha, I have never stated I was a scientist, that you don't know this is actually funny since I continue to make that statement. Second, I give to sheets what you think of my posts. Further, I answer questions that are asked of me and thus have integrity. Sir something you lack in most every thread you participate in. Someone asks you a question, you dodge and duck answering it. You instead use the left's tactic of asking a question from one asked to you so you don't think you need to answer it. hahahahahahaha, my principles outweigh yours in so many ways, but you remain a scumbucket poster and have no integrity, some of us know you don't have any. Now do you have a question for me or something you'd like me to respond to instead of this bullshit whiny finger pointing?

 

[ScienceRocks]

 

[ScienceRocks]

The latest MEI update came out with +1.567, which is the highest since 1997-1998 and slightly stronger than 2009-2010 at it's peak. The MEI as previously mentioned before indicates the Ocean and Atmospheric conditions connected to ENSO. In short this data indicates conditions resemble that of a moderate to strong El Nino in place at this time. A rare feat for April/May as the update is indicating.

Read it here

"...The updated (April-May) MEI has risen by 0.61 standard deviations in one month to +1.57, for a high ranking above the 'strong' El Niño threshold (upper 10%ile). This is the highest MEI value in 17 years, surpassing the peak of the 2009-10 El Niño by a few 1/100. The current El Niño has ranked above the weak El Niño threshold for four months in a row, and above the strong threshold for two months running. If it were to remain above the strong threshold for just one more month, it would be the first strong El Niño event since 1997-98 with at least three months registering in the upper 10%ile. By this definition, six other El Niño events occurred since 1950: 1957-58, '65-66, '72-73, '82-83, '86-87, and '91-92, or just over once a decade."

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/

This is smaller than original. Click this bar to view the full image. The original is 1174x640.

 

[Billy_Bob]

Region 4 is now gone cold. The cooling waters are now intruding on the 3-4 region and will soon lay the current El Moki waste. IF the trend continues we might not see a temp spike in late July into Aug which would drive the left wits nuts.. For now we see no atmospheric warming and the cooling trend continues. Even if we get a spike in temp the pause will resume with in a month or two as and El Nina appears to building the southern hemisphere waters and the warm pool is now all but depleted.

 

[Crick]

Climate Prediction Center ENSO Diagnostic Discussion

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
14 May 2015

ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory



Synopsis: There is an approximately 90% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere summer 2015, and a greater than 80% chance it will last through 2015.

By early May 2015, weak to moderate El Niño conditions were reflected by above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) across the equatorial Pacific (Fig. 1), and by the corroborating tropical atmospheric response. The latest weekly Niño indices were +1.2oC in the Niño-4 region, +1.0oC in the Niño-3.4 region, and +1.2oC and +2.3oC in the Niño-3 and Niño-1+2 regions, respectively (Fig. 2). Subsurface temperature anomalies remained substantially above average (Fig. 3), partly in response to a downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave, which resulted in strong positive subsurface anomalies across the central and eastern Pacific (Fig. 4). This anomalous warmth has subsequently persisted in association with El Niño-related ocean-atmosphere coupling. This coupling includes enhanced convection over the central equatorial Pacific (Fig. 5), along with persistent low-level westerly wind anomalies over the western and central equatorial Pacific and persistent upper-level easterly wind anomalies over the central Pacific. Also, the equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (EQSOI) remained negative during the month. Collectively, these features reflect weak to moderate strength El Niño conditions.

Nearly all models predict El Niño (3-month values of the Niño-3.4 index 0.5oC or greater) to continue throughout 2015, and many are also predicting SST anomalies to increase during the next several months (Fig. 6). These forecasts are supported by the continuation of positive subsurface temperature anomalies, enhanced convection near the Date Line, and the persistence of low-level westerly wind anomalies. Given these factors, it is likely that SST anomalies will continue to increase in the coming months. However, model forecast skill tends to be lower during the Northern Hemisphere spring, which somewhat limits confidence in these forecasts. Therefore, there remains considerable uncertainty about how strong this event may become. In summary, there is an approximately 90% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere summer 2015, and a greater than 80% chance it will last through 2015 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts are also updated monthly in theForecast Forum of CPC's Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 11 June 2015. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: [email protected].


Climate Prediction Center
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
NOAA/National Weather Service
College Park, MD 20740

 

[jc456]

Climate Prediction Center ENSO Diagnostic Discussion

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
14 May 2015

ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory



Synopsis: There is an approximately 90% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere summer 2015, and a greater than 80% chance it will last through 2015.

By early May 2015, weak to moderate El Niño conditions were reflected by above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) across the equatorial Pacific (Fig. 1), and by the corroborating tropical atmospheric response. The latest weekly Niño indices were +1.2oC in the Niño-4 region, +1.0oC in the Niño-3.4 region, and +1.2oC and +2.3oC in the Niño-3 and Niño-1+2 regions, respectively (Fig. 2). Subsurface temperature anomalies remained substantially above average (Fig. 3), partly in response to a downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave, which resulted in strong positive subsurface anomalies across the central and eastern Pacific (Fig. 4). This anomalous warmth has subsequently persisted in association with El Niño-related ocean-atmosphere coupling. This coupling includes enhanced convection over the central equatorial Pacific (Fig. 5), along with persistent low-level westerly wind anomalies over the western and central equatorial Pacific and persistent upper-level easterly wind anomalies over the central Pacific. Also, the equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (EQSOI) remained negative during the month. Collectively, these features reflect weak to moderate strength El Niño conditions.

Nearly all models predict El Niño (3-month values of the Niño-3.4 index 0.5oC or greater) to continue throughout 2015, and many are also predicting SST anomalies to increase during the next several months (Fig. 6). These forecasts are supported by the continuation of positive subsurface temperature anomalies, enhanced convection near the Date Line, and the persistence of low-level westerly wind anomalies. Given these factors, it is likely that SST anomalies will continue to increase in the coming months. However, model forecast skill tends to be lower during the Northern Hemisphere spring, which somewhat limits confidence in these forecasts. Therefore, there remains considerable uncertainty about how strong this event may become. In summary, there is an approximately 90% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere summer 2015, and a greater than 80% chance it will last through 2015 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts are also updated monthly in theForecast Forum of CPC's Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 11 June 2015. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: [email protected].


Climate Prediction Center
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
NOAA/National Weather Service
College Park, MD 20740

Again, for the umpteenth time, PREDICTION. It's all you got friend. Want to challenge it doesn't happen? What say you?

 

[Old Rocks]

Climate Prediction Center ENSO Diagnostic Discussion

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
14 May 2015

ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory



Synopsis: There is an approximately 90% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere summer 2015, and a greater than 80% chance it will last through 2015.

By early May 2015, weak to moderate El Niño conditions were reflected by above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) across the equatorial Pacific (Fig. 1), and by the corroborating tropical atmospheric response. The latest weekly Niño indices were +1.2oC in the Niño-4 region, +1.0oC in the Niño-3.4 region, and +1.2oC and +2.3oC in the Niño-3 and Niño-1+2 regions, respectively (Fig. 2). Subsurface temperature anomalies remained substantially above average (Fig. 3), partly in response to a downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave, which resulted in strong positive subsurface anomalies across the central and eastern Pacific (Fig. 4). This anomalous warmth has subsequently persisted in association with El Niño-related ocean-atmosphere coupling. This coupling includes enhanced convection over the central equatorial Pacific (Fig. 5), along with persistent low-level westerly wind anomalies over the western and central equatorial Pacific and persistent upper-level easterly wind anomalies over the central Pacific. Also, the equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (EQSOI) remained negative during the month. Collectively, these features reflect weak to moderate strength El Niño conditions.

Nearly all models predict El Niño (3-month values of the Niño-3.4 index 0.5oC or greater) to continue throughout 2015, and many are also predicting SST anomalies to increase during the next several months (Fig. 6). These forecasts are supported by the continuation of positive subsurface temperature anomalies, enhanced convection near the Date Line, and the persistence of low-level westerly wind anomalies. Given these factors, it is likely that SST anomalies will continue to increase in the coming months. However, model forecast skill tends to be lower during the Northern Hemisphere spring, which somewhat limits confidence in these forecasts. Therefore, there remains considerable uncertainty about how strong this event may become. In summary, there is an approximately 90% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere summer 2015, and a greater than 80% chance it will last through 2015 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts are also updated monthly in theForecast Forum of CPC's Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 11 June 2015. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: [email protected].


Climate Prediction Center
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
NOAA/National Weather Service
College Park, MD 20740

Again, for the umpteenth time, PREDICTION. It's all you got friend. Want to challenge it doesn't happen? What say you?

God, jc, you are second only to Billy Boob in stupidity. Crick's post clearly pointed out we are presently in a strong El Nino, as did that of Mathew;

Climate Prediction Center ENSO Diagnostic Discussion
The latest weekly Niño indices were +1.2oC in the Niño-4 region, +1.0oC in the Niño-3.4 region, and +1.2oC and +2.3oC in the Niño-3 and Niño-1+2 regions, respectively (Fig. 2). Subsurface temperature anomalies remained substantially above average (Fig. 3),

Anything above a 0.5 is in El Nino territory.

"...The updated (April-May) MEI has risen by 0.61 standard deviations in one month to +1.57, for a high ranking above the 'strong' El Niño threshold (upper 10%ile). This is the highest MEI value in 17 years, surpassing the peak of the 2009-10 El Niño by a few 1/100. The current El Niño has ranked above the weak El Niño threshold for four months in a row, and above the strong threshold for two months running. If it were to remain above the strong threshold for just one more month, it would be the first strong El Niño event since 1997-98 with at least three months registering in the upper 10%ile. By this definition, six other El Niño events occurred since 1950: 1957-58, '65-66, '72-73, '82-83, '86-87, and '91-92, or just over once a decade."

Earth System Research Laboratory PSD none

 

[jc456]

Climate Prediction Center ENSO Diagnostic Discussion

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
14 May 2015

ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory



Synopsis: There is an approximately 90% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere summer 2015, and a greater than 80% chance it will last through 2015.

By early May 2015, weak to moderate El Niño conditions were reflected by above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) across the equatorial Pacific (Fig. 1), and by the corroborating tropical atmospheric response. The latest weekly Niño indices were +1.2oC in the Niño-4 region, +1.0oC in the Niño-3.4 region, and +1.2oC and +2.3oC in the Niño-3 and Niño-1+2 regions, respectively (Fig. 2). Subsurface temperature anomalies remained substantially above average (Fig. 3), partly in response to a downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave, which resulted in strong positive subsurface anomalies across the central and eastern Pacific (Fig. 4). This anomalous warmth has subsequently persisted in association with El Niño-related ocean-atmosphere coupling. This coupling includes enhanced convection over the central equatorial Pacific (Fig. 5), along with persistent low-level westerly wind anomalies over the western and central equatorial Pacific and persistent upper-level easterly wind anomalies over the central Pacific. Also, the equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (EQSOI) remained negative during the month. Collectively, these features reflect weak to moderate strength El Niño conditions.

Nearly all models predict El Niño (3-month values of the Niño-3.4 index 0.5oC or greater) to continue throughout 2015, and many are also predicting SST anomalies to increase during the next several months (Fig. 6). These forecasts are supported by the continuation of positive subsurface temperature anomalies, enhanced convection near the Date Line, and the persistence of low-level westerly wind anomalies. Given these factors, it is likely that SST anomalies will continue to increase in the coming months. However, model forecast skill tends to be lower during the Northern Hemisphere spring, which somewhat limits confidence in these forecasts. Therefore, there remains considerable uncertainty about how strong this event may become. In summary, there is an approximately 90% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere summer 2015, and a greater than 80% chance it will last through 2015 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts are also updated monthly in theForecast Forum of CPC's Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 11 June 2015. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: [email protected].


Climate Prediction Center
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
NOAA/National Weather Service
College Park, MD 20740

Again, for the umpteenth time, PREDICTION. It's all you got friend. Want to challenge it doesn't happen? What say you?

God, jc, you are second only to Billy Boob in stupidity. Crick's post clearly pointed out we are presently in a strong El Nino, as did that of Mathew;

Climate Prediction Center ENSO Diagnostic Discussion
The latest weekly Niño indices were +1.2oC in the Niño-4 region, +1.0oC in the Niño-3.4 region, and +1.2oC and +2.3oC in the Niño-3 and Niño-1+2 regions, respectively (Fig. 2). Subsurface temperature anomalies remained substantially above average (Fig. 3),

Anything above a 0.5 is in El Nino territory.

"...The updated (April-May) MEI has risen by 0.61 standard deviations in one month to +1.57, for a high ranking above the 'strong' El Niño threshold (upper 10%ile). This is the highest MEI value in 17 years, surpassing the peak of the 2009-10 El Niño by a few 1/100. The current El Niño has ranked above the weak El Niño threshold for four months in a row, and above the strong threshold for two months running. If it were to remain above the strong threshold for just one more month, it would be the first strong El Niño event since 1997-98 with at least three months registering in the upper 10%ile. By this definition, six other El Niño events occurred since 1950: 1957-58, '65-66, '72-73, '82-83, '86-87, and '91-92, or just over once a decade."

Earth System Research Laboratory PSD none

I see your eyes just can't see that big ass ole word PREDICTION. Can they? Dude, the weather patterns that would be a result of an el nino are not present. I couldn't care less about what some company predicts when weather patterns haven't changed. Show me where the weather patterns have changed and I will reconsider my stance. until then, the boogey man will get ya!!!

 

[ScienceRocks]

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
11 June 2015


ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory


Synopsis: There is a greater than 90% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere fall 2015, and around an 85% chance it will last through the 2015-16 winter.

During May, sea surface temperatures (SST) anomalies increased across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1 & Fig. 2). All of the Niño indices were in excess of +1.0oC, with the largest anomalies in the eastern Pacific, indicated by recent weekly values of +1.4oC in Niño-3 and +1.9oC in Niño-1+2 (Fig. 2). After a slight decline in April, positive subsurface temperature anomalies strengthened during May (Fig. 3) in association with the progress of a downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave (Fig. 4). In addition, anomalous low-level westerly winds remained over most of the equatorial Pacific, and were accompanied by anomalous upper-level easterly winds. The traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) were both negative, consistent with enhanced convection over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific and suppressed convection over Indonesia (Fig. 5). Collectively, these atmospheric and oceanic features reflect an ongoing and strengthening El Niño.

Nearly all models predict El Niño to continue throughout 2015, with many predicting SST anomalies to increase into the late fall 2015 (Fig. 6). For the fall and early winter, the consensus of forecasters slightly favors a strong event (3-month values of the Niño-3.4 index +1.5oC or greater), relative to a weaker event. However, this prediction may vary in the months ahead as strength forecasts are the most challenging aspect of ENSO prediction. A moderate, weak, or even no El Niño remains possible, though at increasingly lesser odds. There is a greater than 90% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere fall 2015, and around an 85% chance it will last through the 2015-16 winter (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

Across the contiguous United States, temperature and precipitation impacts associated with El Niño are expected to remain minimal during the Northern Hemisphere summer and increase into the late fall and winter (the 3-month seasonal outlook will be updated on Thursday June 18th). El Niño will likely be a contributor to a below normal Atlantic hurricane season, and above-normal hurricane seasons in both the central and eastern Pacific hurricane basins

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... odisc.html

 

[Billy_Bob]

SOI is in the toilet...(22 June is average date that SOI drops but it is already gone) IF El Nino does form, and right now indicators are going weak, it will be short lived.

The Key to this is Westerly Wind formations near the equator, which SOI measures. IF the Cooling in Region 4 continues to grow all bets are off...

Time will tell if the NOAA goon squad and their politically driven prediction will fall flat. Even the boys over at WeatherBell (Joe Bastardie's group) have lowered their prediction to 50/50.. Noting the falling atmospheric pressures and Cold water intrusion.

 

[Old Rocks]

The last El Nino's, 2004-2005, 2009-2010. What was the SOI doing on those dates? Down in the blue. What is that SOI doing today? Down in the blue. Damn, you are one dumb dude, Billy ol' Boob.

 

[mamooth]

Weather Service joins call for a strong El Nino event - The Washington Post
---
The National Weather Service (NWS) finally announced publicly today what some other forecasters have said for months: the burgeoning El Nino event has a good chance to be a strong one by the fall or winter.
---

 

[jc456]

Weather Service joins call for a strong El Nino event - The Washington Post
---
The National Weather Service (NWS) finally announced publicly today what some other forecasters have said for months: the burgeoning El Nino event has a good chance to be a strong one by the fall or winter.
---

i love it. The fun never stops in this forum. it has a good chance, not a great chance not it is coming, nope a good chance. Well when you roll dice you have a good chance to roll snake eyes, it's still a roll of the dice.

Holy crap it just doesn't stop in here. nope..........hahahahhahahahhahahahaha. Talk about faith based.

 

[Billy_Bob]

The last El Nino's, 2004-2005, 2009-2010. What was the SOI doing on those dates? Down in the blue. What is that SOI doing today? Down in the blue. Damn, you are one dumb dude, Billy ol' Boob.

You really dont have a fucking clue do you...

 

[ScienceRocks]

Only another .2c at 3.4 will make this a strong nino!!! I think it is doable.

 

[jc456]

Only another .2c at 3.4 will make this a strong nino!!! I think it is doable.

Hahahaha