Tracking the el nino

[Billy_Bob]

Temps set to rapidly decline... looks like this El Moki is going away...

Heat around Greenland is now gone and the DWCR has risen cooling the ocean currents around the Continental shelf. Atlantic going deep cold, and it appears there is going to be some rapid ice build up this winter in the arctic region in this area.

Heat around Alaska and the oregon coast is now diminishing. With no Westerlies forming, the heat in the Pacific is now waning..Region 3-4 should take a 0.1-0.2 cooling this next week.The region one warm pool is now depleted. Nowhere to go but down from here..

 

[Crick]

Lovely picture. But what is the source of all your commentary?

 

[mamooth]

Billy's prediction from Apr. 26. (post #12 on this thread).

EL NADA is about to go away with a vengeance as cooler water is now cycling and a La Nina is building...

Were about to have a serious drop in ocean temps.. And Mathew is hoping like hell it will last through may and the Paris convention... At current rate of decline we will go negative mid May.

How'd that mid-May drop go, Billy? What, you mean it got more positive instead? Wow, you stink at predictions. Why should anyone take you seriously?

 

[Old Rocks]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory El Niño conditions are present.* Positive equatorial sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies continue across most of the Pacific Ocean. There is a greater than 90% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere fall 2015, and around an 85% chance it will last through the 2015-16 winter.*

Mr. Billy Bob, here is what the ENSO Alert System has to say. Perhaps you would like to revise your post?

 

[ScienceRocks]

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · 37s37 seconds ago
Nino 3 has snuck above the 1.5 (strong) threshold- in a typical #ElNino the warmth spreads westward during the summer

 

[Billy_Bob]

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · 37s37 seconds ago
Nino 3 has snuck above the 1.5 (strong) threshold- in a typical #ElNino the warmth spreads westward during the summer

I dont know where he is getting his info from but it isn't real.

It appears the peak has been reached and flat-lined.. Region 3-4 is now cooling.

 

[Billy_Bob]

Even actual temps show cooling and diminishing flows. Rather interesting that no westerlies are even hinted at in the surface temps and must be conclude that the SOI of about -1.75 is correct. The heat is being drawn back south of the equator and mixed with the very cold water now amassing and the La Nina that is beginning to form up.

Its the timing of when it flips to cold flows and we are nearing that balance point in mass.

Source

 

[jc456]

Even actual temps show cooling and diminishing flows. Rather interesting that no westerlies are even hinted at in the surface temps and must be conclude that the SOI of about -1.75 is correct. The heat is being drawn back south of the equator and mixed with the very cold water now amassing and the La Nina that is beginning to form up.

Its the timing of when it flips to cold flows and we are nearing that balance point in mass.

Source

Weather in Chicago isn't any different than last year

 

[Old Rocks]

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · 37s37 seconds ago
Nino 3 has snuck above the 1.5 (strong) threshold- in a typical #ElNino the warmth spreads westward during the summer

I dont know where he is getting his info from but it isn't real.

It appears the peak has been reached and flat-lined.. Region 3-4 is now cooling.

Mr. Billy Bob, just how do you get a flat line out of that graph? It has hit 1.35, and is still going up at a rapid rate.

 

[ScienceRocks]

Text of CPC weekly update of nino 3.4 at +1.4C.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

 

[ScienceRocks]

Will we make it to strong by next Monday??? Looks possible.

 

[Billy_Bob]

Who to believe... While there is warming of some regions the main push is now cooling and cold building up.

 

[Crick]

You don't see that enormous blob of deep red running from Hawaii to Ecuador in the 2015 graphic that is NOT present in last year's data? The El Nino doesn't take place in the South Atlantic Mr Weatherman.

 

[jc456]

You don't see that enormous blob of deep red running from Hawaii to Ecuador in the 2015 graphic that is NOT present in last year's data? The El Nino doesn't take place in the South Atlantic Mr Weatherman.

And yeti, still no El nino showing in the states! Hmmmmmmmm

 

[ScienceRocks]

There's a whole shit load of things I strongly agree with the right wing with, but this one makes you look kind of foolish. Facts are facts.

 

[jc456]

There's a whole shit load of things I strongly agree with the right wing with, but this one makes you look kind of foolish. Facts are facts.

And yet, I look correct! Still no symptoms in the states. Going to be 54 degrees in Chicago tonight That's called evidence. Which factually you have zip of.

 

[mamooth]

And yeti, still no El nino showing in the states! Hmmmmmmmm

That might have something to do with El Nino being something that happens in the Pacific Ocean.

Also, cherrypicking individual cooler days is rather flagrantly dishonest.

 

[jc456]

And yeti, still no El nino showing in the states! Hmmmmmmmm

That might have something to do with El Nino being something that happens in the Pacific Ocean.

Also, cherrypicking individual cooler days is rather flagrantly dishonest.

Yeah you call it whatever you want to call it. you want to call it El Niño and El Nino means weather across the United States and I'm sorry but you're wrong and I'm right and I'm still correct!

 

[Liminal]

The anti-science and anti-government people are here. LOL

Consensus and denier are anti-science words

As defined by people who don't believe in science.

 

[eagle1462010]

El Nino is pushing warmer water to the west, from the equator...........It is a natural cycle and it always pushes hot water across the pacific released from the ocean depths near the coast.............

When the Pacific gets hot enough it will help lower the jet stream down..........and we are seeing some of the effects already..........and will bring rain to the lower 48..................eventually hitting even California..................

It's pushing a wave of warm water.................Just as it has done naturally for a long time when it comes............