Time to short Stocks!

[The Rabbi]

You are the one repeating crap you hear on CNBC. For 2 years now their old bald head experts have been saying interest rates will rise & the Fed will let them rise. They were wrong & rates have been going down. You do realize the Fed has 2 policy goals for which it was created. They are in conflict, one is to print money & lower rates until we get unemployment to 5% which is full employment. The other is to keep the dollar strong. Over the past 40 years since the dollar came off the gold standard, necessary nonrenewable commodities have risen 8% per year against the US dollar. I see no reason for Fed to not at least maintain that level of inflation. I believe they will increase the inflation going foreword to split the difference in their 2 goals. They will create just enough inflation to keep unemployment heading down & keep the dollar in slow decline. That mean above 8% per year in nonrenewable commodities likely 12% annual inflation until 2013.

You are the one who is repeating crap & have been repeating crap all year. The only bubble is the US dollar. Google define market bubble. You will see that it describes US dollar, unfunded mandates & bonds exactly. You are a victim of group think. We just witnessed Republicans & Democrats extend entitlement spending & tax cuts. The increased US government bond sales has driven up bonds, not the lack of the Feds bond purchases. The fed will step up bond purchases to meet the increased demand shortly.

Gold price 12/14/10-$1396
Gold price 1/6/11-1358.
This masks the trend in gold prices, which is down. Gold has been down the last 3 sessions. This will continue.
Hope you sank your life savings in the metal!

Gold 1/20-$1349.
Time to buy more!

Gold 1/24-$1333. The trend is your friend.

 

[finebead]

I feel good about 2011, lot of govt. provided liquidity out there. I expect a couple of 5-10% corrections this year, don't know when, nobody does. We've been melting up slowly since sept., so a near term correction seems reasonable, which would be a buying opportunity IMO. I like elec. utilities, pay good divy, stable business should benefit from a recovery. I don't like banks, I don't know what's on their books and mark to market is no longer how they account, crap shoot if the other shoe drops. I like big tech stocks with a decent divy, like Intel, seems corp america will have to buy new PC's to migrate to Win 7. Technically, the S&P 500 is overbought short term, so I lightened up a bit today, sold off my biggest holding, hope to buy it back cheaper in the next 60 days.

 

[KissMy]

Gold price 12/14/10-$1396
Gold price 1/6/11-1358.
This masks the trend in gold prices, which is down. Gold has been down the last 3 sessions. This will continue.
Hope you sank your life savings in the metal!

Gold 1/20-$1349.
Time to buy more!

Gold 1/24-$1333. The trend is your friend.

Sorry to disappoint you but I sold over 1/2 of my total Gold & silver holdings on the first 10 trading days of the new year. I have been on vacation for a month so I have not been on USMB much at all.

In the month of December more silver was bought & sold than in the entire past year. Silver shot up 50% in the last 3 months of 2010. I figured there had to be a correction after this & the Republicans staging a spending blockade. The Republicans have the Gold & Silver market bluffed. I am waiting to see if any new spending gets past these guys.

On January 3rd I sold 1/3rd of my physical metals. I sold 32 of my 1ozt Gold coins at $1475.00 each & 175 of my 1ozt Silver for $32 each on January 3rd. I made $725 per ozt on each of those Gold coins & $17 per ozt on each of those Silver coins. I made over 100% tax free in the last 2 years on these coins.

I still have 65ozt of Gold coins left that I paid $715 each & 200ozt of silver that I paid $15 each. I will hold these to see what the SCOTUS decides on the pending muni default case & how many more defaults will happen by June first, whether Bernanke & the Fed announce a QEIII when QEII runs out or if there are any more Euro, State, or muni crisis by then.

A week & a half ago I sold all of my SLV holdings at $28.92 for a nice profit & all of my GLD holdings at $135.51 on January 13th when Gold was $1375 for a loss of $2150 on that last GLD trade. I have made over 70% in the past year trading the GLD & SLV.

I am not yet shorting the GLD or SLV to hedge my remaining physical Gold & Silver in my safe. Seeing as the GLD & SLV do not hold value or keep up with Gold & Silver over time I would be better off keeping the rest of my physical coins & shorting those ETFs over the long run if I feel there will be a huge sell-off. But for the next 5 months I am going to sit on those physical coins & take my lumps while I wait & see what develops.

 

[editec]

ALL OTHER THINGS BEING EQUAL, AS/IF the market continues to recover and thrive, seems to me that investments in gold and silver will lose their luster.

Of course the given -- "all other things being equal" -- isn't really something one can count on.

All other things are never equal over time.

 

[The Rabbi]

Gold 1/20-$1349.
Time to buy more!

Gold 1/24-$1333. The trend is your friend.

Sorry to disappoint you but I sold over 1/2 of my total Gold & silver holdings on the first 10 trading days of the new year. I have been on vacation for a month so I have not been on USMB much at all.

In the month of December more silver was bought & sold than in the entire past year. Silver shot up 50% in the last 3 months of 2010. I figured there had to be a correction after this & the Republicans staging a spending blockade. The Republicans have the Gold & Silver market bluffed. I am waiting to see if any new spending gets past these guys.

On January 3rd I sold 1/3rd of my physical metals. I sold 32 of my 1ozt Gold coins at $1475.00 each & 175 of my 1ozt Silver for $32 each on January 3rd. I made $725 per ozt on each of those Gold coins & $17 per ozt on each of those Silver coins. I made over 100% tax free in the last 2 years on these coins.

I still have 65ozt of Gold coins left that I paid $715 each & 200ozt of silver that I paid $15 each. I will hold these to see what the SCOTUS decides on the pending muni default case & how many more defaults will happen by June first, whether Bernanke & the Fed announce a QEIII when QEII runs out or if there are any more Euro, State, or muni crisis by then.

A week & a half ago I sold all of my SLV holdings at $28.92 for a nice profit & all of my GLD holdings at $135.51 on January 13th when Gold was $1375 for a loss of $2150 on that last GLD trade. I have made over 70% in the past year trading the GLD & SLV.

I am not yet shorting the GLD or SLV to hedge my remaining physical Gold & Silver in my safe. Seeing as the GLD & SLV do not hold value or keep up with Gold & Silver over time I would be better off keeping the rest of my physical coins & shorting those ETFs over the long run if I feel there will be a huge sell-off. But for the next 5 months I am going to sit on those physical coins & take my lumps while I wait & see what develops.

Ye of course you did. Investing in the rear view mirror is so much more rewarding.

 

[KissMy]

Gold 1/24-$1333. The trend is your friend.

Sorry to disappoint you but I sold over 1/2 of my total Gold & silver holdings on the first 10 trading days of the new year. I have been on vacation for a month so I have not been on USMB much at all.

In the month of December more silver was bought & sold than in the entire past year. Silver shot up 50% in the last 3 months of 2010. I figured there had to be a correction after this & the Republicans staging a spending blockade. The Republicans have the Gold & Silver market bluffed. I am waiting to see if any new spending gets past these guys.

On January 3rd I sold 1/3rd of my physical metals. I sold 32 of my 1ozt Gold coins at $1475.00 each & 175 of my 1ozt Silver for $32 each on January 3rd. I made $725 per ozt on each of those Gold coins & $17 per ozt on each of those Silver coins. I made over 100% tax free in the last 2 years on these coins.

I still have 65ozt of Gold coins left that I paid $715 each & 200ozt of silver that I paid $15 each. I will hold these to see what the SCOTUS decides on the pending muni default case & how many more defaults will happen by June first, whether Bernanke & the Fed announce a QEIII when QEII runs out or if there are any more Euro, State, or muni crisis by then.

A week & a half ago I sold all of my SLV holdings at $28.92 for a nice profit & all of my GLD holdings at $135.51 on January 13th when Gold was $1375 for a loss of $2150 on that last GLD trade. I have made over 70% in the past year trading the GLD & SLV.

I am not yet shorting the GLD or SLV to hedge my remaining physical Gold & Silver in my safe. Seeing as the GLD & SLV do not hold value or keep up with Gold & Silver over time I would be better off keeping the rest of my physical coins & shorting those ETFs over the long run if I feel there will be a huge sell-off. But for the next 5 months I am going to sit on those physical coins & take my lumps while I wait & see what develops.

Ye of course you did. Investing in the rear view mirror is so much more rewarding.

There is no rear view investing here bud. All my previous buy & sell dates were posted timely. Even today with gold dropping again I can still sell my gold coins for $1400 each. That is still a double from where I bought them.

 

[The Rabbi]

No you need to buy MORE. THis is a cheap price. It's going back UP UP UP!

 

[KissMy]

No you need to buy MORE. THis is a cheap price. It's going back UP UP UP!

Oh! don't worry. I may buy more depending on what happens. The stock market is running up on euphoria & getting a bit on the high side. Companies are missing earnings. Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, McDonalds, Best Buy, Verizon, AT&T all missed earnings. The Baltic Dry index is in a big nose dive so things are slowing down around the world.

I just need to wait for another massive dose of stimulus or another bail-out & I will be back in buying. The POTUS will be begging for another $Trillion worth of stimulus tonight at the STOTU speech tonight. I don't think he will get that past the house.

I can wait as long as it takes, but sooner or later those idiots will pop for some more money creation. I am not leveraged & have no mortgages or loans. All I have to do is buy food & pay taxes.

I am considering investing my Gold profits in & helping with the launch of a startup to convert big rig semi trucks to also burn CNG, LNG, Propane, Hydrogen while still being able to burn Dino-Diesel & Bio-Diesel. This conversion actually works great & will enable the current trucks to burn 6 different types of fuel saving big bucks for the trucking companies & drive down oil prices. This is part of the T.Boone Pickens Plan. It will decrease our fuel imports by using our abundant domestic supply of clean low carbon natural gas or (hydrogen if they ever get that cheap hydrogen production from wind turbines to work. not likely in the near term but a great sales pitch). It also may get some major government funding soon. Domestic gas drillers, enviro wackos, congress, POTUS & the EPA back this plan.

 

[The Rabbi]

Oh yeah! Dump your money into T Boone Pickens' latest idea. Do it!

 

[KissMy]

Oh yeah! Dump your money into T Boone Pickens' latest idea. Do it!

I am only going to invest if they can sell it to the trucking companies & have signed contracts. Unless they can convince the trucking industry or government to pay for this & use it then it will flop.

 

[The Rabbi]

Oh yeah! Dump your money into T Boone Pickens' latest idea. Do it!

I am only going to invest if they can sell it to the trucking companies & have signed contracts. Unless they can convince the trucking industry or government to pay for this & use it then it will flop.

What a genius!
By that point the price will fully reflect the potential, and then some.

 

[Zander]

I am buying the long bond. Why? Because I foresee slow economic growth at best in coming quarters and years and for the following reasons:

1) the Fed is determined to further reduce interest rates - they couldn't be clearer.
2) Deflation is looming - housing pricing starts it's second leg downward
3) long Treasury bonds are attractive to pension funds and life insurers that want to match their long-term liabilities with similar maturity assets - they had to bring the long bond back after a few years hiatus.
4) As the U.S. moves ever closer to the slow growth and deflation of Japan, the parallel trends in government bond yields seem likely to continue - look at the charts
5) Treasurys are the safe haven in a sea of trouble in the Eurozone and elsewhere

I predict that 30-year Treasurys, “the Long Bond,” will rally from its current yield of about 4.4% to 3% with appreciation of around 25%. I also expect the 10-year Treasury note yield to drop from the present 3.3% level to 2.0%. but the appreciation would be around 11% - Due to its shorter duration.

I am long the long bond!!! WOOHOO!!!!

Best of luck.

 

[Toro]

I think anyone buying the 10 or 30 year Treasury bond with the intention of holding it to maturity risks getting slaughtered. Best of luck to those who do. It's return return-free risk!


I am now slightly net short after this afternoon after putting on some short positions, but the f****** longs bid the market up into the close.

 

[Zander]

I think anyone buying the 10 or 30 year Treasury bond with the intention of holding it to maturity risks getting slaughtered. Best of luck to those who do. It's return return-free risk!


I am now slightly net short after this afternoon after putting on some short positions, but the f****** longs bid the market up into the close.

I am not planning on holding to maturity.....

 

[miller]

I think anyone buying the 10 or 30 year Treasury bond with the intention of holding it to maturity risks getting slaughtered. Best of luck to those who do. It's return return-free risk!


I am now slightly net short after this afternoon after putting on some short positions, but the f****** longs bid the market up into the close.

I am not planning on holding to maturity.....

Tea Baggers are racist nitwits and you were dead wrong on shorting the stock market and now you're dead wrong buying the long bond. Did they repeal the law of supply and demand?

 

[miller]

I forgot, conservatives are traitors. They should be deported out of America.

 

[uscitizen]

I find it funny that a "Time to short stocks" thread has been going on for a year or so.

 

[Trajan]

I am buying the long bond. Why? Because I foresee slow economic growth at best in coming quarters and years and for the following reasons:

1) the Fed is determined to further reduce interest rates - they couldn't be clearer.
2) Deflation is looming - housing pricing starts it's second leg downward
3) long Treasury bonds are attractive to pension funds and life insurers that want to match their long-term liabilities with similar maturity assets - they had to bring the long bond back after a few years hiatus.
4) As the U.S. moves ever closer to the slow growth and deflation of Japan, the parallel trends in government bond yields seem likely to continue - look at the charts
5) Treasurys are the safe haven in a sea of trouble in the Eurozone and elsewhere

I predict that 30-year Treasurys, “the Long Bond,” will rally from its current yield of about 4.4% to 3% with appreciation of around 25%. I also expect the 10-year Treasury note yield to drop from the present 3.3% level to 2.0%. but the appreciation would be around 11% - Due to its shorter duration.

I am long the long bond!!! WOOHOO!!!!

Best of luck.

you might want to reconsider the deflation outlook zander.......I think they are right, though core inflation ( absent of course 2 huge mechanisms/commodities) is moving slowly, at what cost? I think the indicators are crystallizing for a run up.


* FEBRUARY 18, 2011

Deja Deflation Fear
whatever happened to falling prices?


Whatever happened to deflation? You'll remember only a few months ago the Federal Reserve used the fear of falling prices to justify its QE2 program of further monetary easing. Yesterday the government reported that consumer prices rose 0.4% in January, the same rate as in December. The price index is up 1.6% in the last 12 months, but it is also accelerating—up 3.2% in the last six months and 3.9% at an annual rate in the past quarter.

We are told by the Fed's allies not to worry because "core" inflation, which excludes food and energy, rose only 0.2% in January. This means, we are further assured, that companies are having a hard time passing their own rising wholesale costs onto consumers—which means there will be no broader inflation breakout.

snip-
Asked about all this at a recent House hearing, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said QE2 is a success because stock prices are rising. He blamed the increase in commodity prices on other things, such as growing world demand and the weather. Mr. Bernanke holds himself accountable only for the asset price increases that are popular.

If that answer sounds familiar, it is because Mr. Bernanke said the same thing in 2003 and 2004 when the Fed last fretted about deflation. Then the Fed also maintained a policy of negative real interest rates for years and blamed asset price spikes on everyone else. Once again the Fed seems to have worried about deflation long after the threat had passed and even as price pressures from its easier policy were preparing to build. Let's hope it turns out better than it did the last time.

Review & Outlook: Deja Deflation Fear - WSJ.com

 

[miller]

I find it funny that a "Time to short stocks" thread has been going on for a year or so.

When Zander decides to buy, that's when you short. Zander's going to get ripped in his long Treasury. If Bernanke isn't fired Treasuries will trade higher than 16%. The high rate in 1981 was 15.5% and debt was only $1 trillion then.

 

[miller]

I think anyone buying the 10 or 30 year Treasury bond with the intention of holding it to maturity risks getting slaughtered. Best of luck to those who do. It's return return-free risk!


I am now slightly net short after this afternoon after putting on some short positions, but the f****** longs bid the market up into the close.

I am not planning on holding to maturity.....

Bad news Zander. The dollar will crash, inflation will skyrocket, and Bernanke is ready with QE3. He's incompetent and delusional. See this.
Screwed Again: BAD NEWS