Time running out to save US

[Luddly Neddite]

Landmark Report Warns Time Is Running Out To Save U.S. From Climate Catastrophe | ThinkProgress

The National Climate Assessment is the definitive statement of current and future impacts of carbon pollution on the United States. And the picture it paints is stark: Inaction will devastate much of the arable land of the nation’s breadbasket — and ruin a livable climate for most Americans.

“Americans face choices” explains the Congressionally-mandated report by 300 leading climate scientists and experts, which was reviewed by the National Academy of Sciences. We’re already seeing serious climate impacts — such as more extreme heat waves, droughts, and deluges — and additional impacts are “now unavoidable.” But just how bad future climate change is “will still largely be determined by choices society makes about emissions.”

Let’s look at some of our choices:

Note that this figure is conservative — the A2 scenario (850 parts per million of CO2 in the air) is not as bad as the business-as-usual scenario the recent U.N. climate report used. In short, if we do nothing things could well be even worse.

Even so, the heat waves in the do-nothing case are unimaginably brutal. In the A2 scenario, across most of the United States, the hottest days — those that occur only once in 20 years — will be “about 10°F to 15°F hotter” by late in the century. So those rare 105°F days will be 115° to 120°F days.

One of the most dangerous consequences of that staggering rise in heat is a drop in soil moisture — basically precipitation minus evaporation — a key indicator of drought. Places that don’t see any drop in precipitation will still see a drop in soil moisture when it is hotter because of the evaporation, the drying out of the soil in the hot sun. Even worse is that much of the Southwest is projected to see less precipitation. Combine the two, and here is another choice for America:

Which scenario should we choose? Hint: The Dust Bowl was a sustained decrease in soil moisture of only about 15%. In the A2 scenario (which, as noted, isn’t the worst case), some parts of the Southwest are, on average, permanently in a Dust Bowl. Large parts of the Southwest AND Great Plains are so close to the edge that in years with slightly less precipitation and/or slightly more heat, they will routinely be in a Dust Bowl.

The choice should be easy, given that other research paints the same grim picture not just for the Southwest and Great Plains — but for multiple regions around the globe. And we know that if we do Dust-Bowlify a third of the planet’s land, it will be irreversible for 1000 years.

Read the rest at the link.

 

[Old Rocks]

Extreme Weather | National Climate Assessment

Heat waves are periods of abnormally hot weather lasting days to weeks. The number of heat waves has been increasing in recent years. This trend has continued in 2011 and 2012, with the number of intense heat waves being almost triple the long-term average. The recent heat waves and droughts in Texas (2011) and the Midwest (2012) set records for highest monthly average temperatures. Analyses show that human-induced climate change has generally increased the probability of heat waves., And prolonged (multi-month) extreme heat has been unprecedented since the start of reliable instrumental records in 1895.

Higher temperatures lead to increased rates of evaporation, including more loss of moisture through plant leaves. Even in areas where precipitation does not decrease, these increases in surface evaporation and loss of water from plants lead to more rapid drying of soils if the effects of higher temperatures are not offset by other changes (such as reduced wind speed or increased humidity). As soil dries out, a larger proportion of the incoming heat from the sun goes into heating the soil and adjacent air rather than evaporating its moisture, resulting in hotter summers under drier climatic conditions.

An example of recent drought occurred in 2011, when many locations in Texas and Oklahoma experienced more than 100 days over 100°F. Both states set new records for the hottest summer since record keeping began in 1895. Rates of water loss, due in part to evaporation, were double the long-term average. The heat and drought depleted water resources and contributed to more than $10 billion in direct losses to agriculture alone.

Seems to be continueing this year.

 

[Old Rocks]

Extreme Weather | National Climate Assessment


Heavy downpours are increasing nationally, especially over the last three to five decades. The heaviest rainfall events have become heavier and more frequent, and the amount of rain falling on the heaviest rain days has also increased. Since 1991, the amount of rain falling in very heavy precipitation events has been significantly above average. This increase has been greatest in the Northeast, Midwest, and upper Great Plains – more than 30% above the 1901-1960 average. There has also been an increase in flooding events in the Midwest and Northeast, where the largest increases in heavy rain amounts have occurred.

Increasingly, humanity is also adding to weather-related factors, as human-induced warming increases heavy downpours, causes more extensive storm surges due to sea level rise, and leads to more rapid spring snowmelt.

Trends in Flood Magnitude

Details/Download
Worldwide, from 1980 to 2009, floods caused more than 500,000 deaths and affected more than 2.8 billion people. In the United States, floods caused 4,586 deaths from 1959 to 2005 while property and crop damage averaged nearly 8 billion dollars per year (in 2011 dollars) over 1981 through 2011. The risks from future floods are significant, given expanded development in coastal areas and floodplains, unabated urbanization, land-use changes, and human-induced climate change.

 

[Old Rocks]

Much more at this site;

Home | National Climate Assessment

 

[ScienceRocks]

Probably too late with the methane spilling out of the Arctic.

 

[joshuah]

If US heat waves are getting worse why are so many maximum temperature records from the 1910's, 20's, and 30's still standing?

U.S. state temperature extremes - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

I mean, I get that it's the recorded "averages" that are rising, not the maximums, but if I didn't know any better I would guess that *hotter* AND *more extreme* weather would cause higher averages to also see higher maximums.

 

[Mr. H.]

It is hydrocarbons that will save mankind, not destroy it.

 

[bripat9643]

Landmark Report Warns Time Is Running Out To Save U.S. From Climate Catastrophe | ThinkProgress

The National Climate Assessment is the definitive statement of current and future impacts of carbon pollution on the United States. And the picture it paints is stark: Inaction will devastate much of the arable land of the nation’s breadbasket — and ruin a livable climate for most Americans.

“Americans face choices” explains the Congressionally-mandated report by 300 leading climate scientists and experts, which was reviewed by the National Academy of Sciences. We’re already seeing serious climate impacts — such as more extreme heat waves, droughts, and deluges — and additional impacts are “now unavoidable.” But just how bad future climate change is “will still largely be determined by choices society makes about emissions.”

Let’s look at some of our choices:

Note that this figure is conservative — the A2 scenario (850 parts per million of CO2 in the air) is not as bad as the business-as-usual scenario the recent U.N. climate report used. In short, if we do nothing things could well be even worse.

Even so, the heat waves in the do-nothing case are unimaginably brutal. In the A2 scenario, across most of the United States, the hottest days — those that occur only once in 20 years — will be “about 10°F to 15°F hotter” by late in the century. So those rare 105°F days will be 115° to 120°F days.

One of the most dangerous consequences of that staggering rise in heat is a drop in soil moisture — basically precipitation minus evaporation — a key indicator of drought. Places that don’t see any drop in precipitation will still see a drop in soil moisture when it is hotter because of the evaporation, the drying out of the soil in the hot sun. Even worse is that much of the Southwest is projected to see less precipitation. Combine the two, and here is another choice for America:

Which scenario should we choose? Hint: The Dust Bowl was a sustained decrease in soil moisture of only about 15%. In the A2 scenario (which, as noted, isn’t the worst case), some parts of the Southwest are, on average, permanently in a Dust Bowl. Large parts of the Southwest AND Great Plains are so close to the edge that in years with slightly less precipitation and/or slightly more heat, they will routinely be in a Dust Bowl.

The choice should be easy, given that other research paints the same grim picture not just for the Southwest and Great Plains — but for multiple regions around the globe. And we know that if we do Dust-Bowlify a third of the planet’s land, it will be irreversible for 1000 years.

Read the rest at the link.

Does this report contain any actual data, evidence, proof, stuff like that, or is it all just scary computer models?

 

[flacaltenn]

Luddly: All the public is hearing is increasing SHRILL and ANNOYING predictions of doom.. And they are not too stupid to know that the RANGES on these predictions are STILL in debate.

How pissed off do you want to make people??
And no --- I'll pass on using thinkprogress for science references..

 

[ScienceRocks]

Landmark Report Warns Time Is Running Out To Save U.S. From Climate Catastrophe | ThinkProgress

The National Climate Assessment is the definitive statement of current and future impacts of carbon pollution on the United States. And the picture it paints is stark: Inaction will devastate much of the arable land of the nation’s breadbasket — and ruin a livable climate for most Americans.

“Americans face choices” explains the Congressionally-mandated report by 300 leading climate scientists and experts, which was reviewed by the National Academy of Sciences. We’re already seeing serious climate impacts — such as more extreme heat waves, droughts, and deluges — and additional impacts are “now unavoidable.” But just how bad future climate change is “will still largely be determined by choices society makes about emissions.”

Let’s look at some of our choices:

Which scenario should we choose? Hint: The Dust Bowl was a sustained decrease in soil moisture of only about 15%. In the A2 scenario (which, as noted, isn’t the worst case), some parts of the Southwest are, on average, permanently in a Dust Bowl. Large parts of the Southwest AND Great Plains are so close to the edge that in years with slightly less precipitation and/or slightly more heat, they will routinely be in a Dust Bowl.

The choice should be easy, given that other research paints the same grim picture not just for the Southwest and Great Plains — but for multiple regions around the globe. And we know that if we do Dust-Bowlify a third of the planet’s land, it will be irreversible for 1000 years.

Read the rest at the link.

Does this report contain any actual data, evidence, proof, stuff like that, or is it all just scary computer models?

I do wish they would focus more on actual data, now.

 

[Old Rocks]

Luddly: All the public is hearing is increasing SHRILL and ANNOYING predictions of doom.. And they are not too stupid to know that the RANGES on these predictions are STILL in debate.

How pissed off do you want to make people??
And no --- I'll pass on using thinkprogress for science references..

A bit better than Watts.

 

[Old Rocks]

Landmark Report Warns Time Is Running Out To Save U.S. From Climate Catastrophe | ThinkProgress

Read the rest at the link.

Does this report contain any actual data, evidence, proof, stuff like that, or is it all just scary computer models?

I do wish they would focus more on actual data, now.

That video in the thread that you started concentrated on actual data. And the oddity of it is, the scientists were all dissing the computer models. You see, the consequences that they were actively recording and filming were as much as 50 years ahead of what the computer models were saying should be happening.

 

[Stephanie]

omg

who do we call, ghost busters

they'll SAVE OUR ASSES

I'd trust them more than this OP and his party he shills bows down for

 

[Old Rocks]

omg

who do we call, ghost busters

they'll SAVE OUR ASSES

I'd trust them more than this OP and his party he shills bows down for

Oh my, Staph lends her usual idiocy to the discussion.

 

[skookerasbil]

Oh Gawd......not again with the extreme weather!!

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]