Three Election Prediction Models Based on Economics Show Trump getting Easy Win in 2020

Discussion in 'Politics' started by JimBowie1958, Oct 17, 2019.

  1. JimBowie1958
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    JimBowie1958 Old Fogey

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    Yep, if the economy is still good shape, in 2020, Trump wins easy.

    Trump is on his way to an easy win in 2020, according to Moody's accurate election model

    • President Donald Trump will win reelection easily in 2020 if the economy holds up, modeling by Moody’s Analytics shows.
    • “If voters were to vote primarily on the basis of their pocketbooks, the president would steamroll the competition,” the report states.
    • Three models show Trump getting at least 289 electoral votes and as many as 351, assuming average turnout.
    • The Moody’s models have been backtested to 1980 and were correct each time — except in 2016, when it indicated Clinton would get a narrow victory.
    Barring anything unusual happening, the president’s Electoral College victory could easily surpass his 2016 win over Democrat Hillary Clinton, which came by a 304-227 count.

    Moody’s based its projections on how consumers feel about their own financial situation, the gains the stock market has achieved during Trump’s tenure and the prospects for unemployment, which has fallen to a 50-year low. Should those variables hold up, the president looks set to get another four-year term.

    The modeling has been highly accurate going back to the 1980 election, missing only once.​

    So the models are based on 'pocketbook', how Americans feel about their economic situation, the 'Stockmarket' model, and the 'Unemployment' model. Trump wins in all three.

    [​IMG]
     
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  2. Dekster
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    Dekster Gold Member

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    He will probably win if Hillary or Bloomberg don't get in, but I doubt it is a blow out.
     
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  3. Grampa Murked U
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    Grampa Murked U Diamond Member

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    I saw one model that had him at 400. Can't remember who put it out though
     
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  4. Grampa Murked U
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    Grampa Murked U Diamond Member

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  5. Rambunctious
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    Rambunctious Gold Member

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    The dems have nothing of value left to offer to the people...everything they propose is a pipe dream...and what they endorse is vacuous and empty....every day that goes by they lose more voters and new voters are now being turned away from the southern border....they are on the brink of political extinction...
    that's why I'm smiling....
     
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  6. SAYIT
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    I've seen 4 including Moody's.

    Dems just can't face the truth or the oncoming 2020 Trump Train. Instead they've hitched their wagon to socialism and can't seem to get it off the tracks. BOOM!!!

    Rather than use polls - which as we know struggle to measure Trump's support - Moody's and others employ scientific models to predict the future, and every one I've read says Trump in 2020 ... BIGLY. No wonder the Dems are so hot to impeach.

    Trump in a landslide? This historically accurate model predicts exactly that
    According to Moody’s Analytics, Trump is headed toward another four years in the White House. And, if the numbers are right, it won’t even be close.
    Earlier scientific modelers came to the same conclusion as Moody's.

    3 forecast modelers predict Trump will win in 2020
    The big picture: Trump wins all three modelers. Economists predict that the tailwind is large.
    • Ray Fair, a professor at Yale, "found that the growth rates of gross domestic product and inflation have been the two most important economic predictors — but he also found that incumbency was also an important determinant of presidential election outcomes."
    • "Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, has looked at 12 models, and Mr. Trump wins in all of them."
    • "Donald Luskin of Trend Macrolytics has reached the same conclusion in his examination of the Electoral College."
     
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  7. Voiceover
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  8. Voiceover
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    The hard truth to the diversified leftest is that the economy could tank and Trump will still win . The Political Correct crowd has lost its shining light with mainstream America to the point that they are hated and now shunned . I've got several gay friends that wish the left would just evaporate for all the damage theyve done with their over compensation . Now the worm will turn and the tolerance will cease . The bathrooms at Target will return to the two genders and common sense will return to this country . They forced a hard right turn in this country and it's the only way to correct the madness.
     
  9. PoliticalChic
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    The 'impeachment strategy' is their admission that they can't beat him.
     
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