There are lots of people telling you what the race for control of the Senate is about. Maybe it’s about Republicans turning the Senate into a temple of bipartisan governance. Or it’s about stopping President Obama frommaking deals to cut Social Security, or transferring terrorists from Guantanamo Bay to prisons in Kansas (where they will break out and rampage through the countryside).
It’s not actually about any of those things. The contest to control the Senate is about one thing: whether Obama can confirm judges and staff his administration. This can all be seen through the power of political science.
Consider, first, what the race to control the Senate is not about. It’s not about passing legislation of any kind. The possibility that the Republican Senate might lead to legislative compromise has been suggested by professional bipartisans like Gerald Seib (“full GOP control of Congress might well shift Republicans’ focus from stopping him to making things happen”) and some of the more pragmatic Republicans, like Senator Rob Portman:
Mmm, nope. The legislative dynamics in Washington are very simple. Gridlock exists because Obama and House Republicans cannot agree on legislation. If Obama and the House could agree on legislation, their deal would be approved by a Democratic-controlled Senate or by a Republican-controlled Senate. There are no plausible circumstances in which the Senate would block a deal struck between the House and Obama, because, whichever party controls the Senate, its ideological center will sit comfortably inside in the enormous space between Obama and the House Republicans. Ergo, the party that controls the Senate has no impact on legislative outcomes.
It is possible, though highly unlikely, that some bills will pass in the next Congress. But that would be because something has happened to change the House Republicans’ mind. (Like, say, the approach of the 2016 elections persuades them to try to neutralize immigration as an issue.)
There have been numerous attempts to argue around this simple dynamic, and they all get very hand-wavy. The bipartisan version is that Senatorial debate will somehow lead to an era of good feelings. The partisan version is that the Senate will join the House to pass laws unacceptable to Obama — like undermining Obamacare — that he will somehow be forced to sign anyway. But that scenario assumes that Republicans could use the threat of a government shutdown, which is their own leverage to make the president sign a bill he opposes, to make Obama knuckle under. And that is an obviously false assumption. Both sides understand fully well that a shutdown will turn the public against Congress. It is anti-leverage.
More (worth reading): There's One Thing at Stake in the Senate Race -- NYMag
So, it looks like Congress will be in the doldrums for the next two years - regardless of who controls the Senate.
It’s not actually about any of those things. The contest to control the Senate is about one thing: whether Obama can confirm judges and staff his administration. This can all be seen through the power of political science.
Consider, first, what the race to control the Senate is not about. It’s not about passing legislation of any kind. The possibility that the Republican Senate might lead to legislative compromise has been suggested by professional bipartisans like Gerald Seib (“full GOP control of Congress might well shift Republicans’ focus from stopping him to making things happen”) and some of the more pragmatic Republicans, like Senator Rob Portman:
Portman, a fiscally focused Ohio Republican who is generally conservative but believes in bipartisan compromise, sees several areas of potential cooperation with the administration. He mentioned tax reform, a “grand bargain” on the budget, an energy bill—perhaps something that combines Keystone XL pipeline approval with reductions in carbon emissions—and new free-trade agreements, which Obama has supported but Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid has blocked. Portman, who voted against the bipartisan immigration-reform bill that passed the Senate last year, also believes a Republican-led immigration-reform bill could pass the House and Senate and potentially be approved by Obama.
Mmm, nope. The legislative dynamics in Washington are very simple. Gridlock exists because Obama and House Republicans cannot agree on legislation. If Obama and the House could agree on legislation, their deal would be approved by a Democratic-controlled Senate or by a Republican-controlled Senate. There are no plausible circumstances in which the Senate would block a deal struck between the House and Obama, because, whichever party controls the Senate, its ideological center will sit comfortably inside in the enormous space between Obama and the House Republicans. Ergo, the party that controls the Senate has no impact on legislative outcomes.
It is possible, though highly unlikely, that some bills will pass in the next Congress. But that would be because something has happened to change the House Republicans’ mind. (Like, say, the approach of the 2016 elections persuades them to try to neutralize immigration as an issue.)
There have been numerous attempts to argue around this simple dynamic, and they all get very hand-wavy. The bipartisan version is that Senatorial debate will somehow lead to an era of good feelings. The partisan version is that the Senate will join the House to pass laws unacceptable to Obama — like undermining Obamacare — that he will somehow be forced to sign anyway. But that scenario assumes that Republicans could use the threat of a government shutdown, which is their own leverage to make the president sign a bill he opposes, to make Obama knuckle under. And that is an obviously false assumption. Both sides understand fully well that a shutdown will turn the public against Congress. It is anti-leverage.
More (worth reading): There's One Thing at Stake in the Senate Race -- NYMag
So, it looks like Congress will be in the doldrums for the next two years - regardless of who controls the Senate.
