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The economy is still losing hundreds of thousands of jobs every month. When that stops, you'll see the bottom. We aren't there yet....
Totally agree, there is no such thing as a jobless recovery, jobless recovery's can not sustain the recovery.
Business activity in the U.S. unexpectedly expanded in October, a sign the economic recovery that began in the third quarter will persist in coming months.
The Institute for Supply Management-Chicago Inc. said today its business barometer increased to 54.2, the highest level in 13 months and exceeding the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, from 46.1 the prior month. Readings below 50 signal a contraction.
Companies are gearing up to meet demand after the economy grew in the July to September period after four consecutive quarters of contraction. A slower pace of inventory reduction and rising sales abroad due to more than $2 trillion in global government stimulus also signal more production.
The manufacturing rebound is a lot broader than just cash for clunkers, said Dean Maki, chief U.S. economist at Barclays Capital Inc. in New York, referring to the governments auto-incentive plan that helped boost sales and production. This improvement will show through in the national numbers as well. ...
The Chicago purchasers new orders gauge jumped to 61.4, the highest level since June 2007, from 46.3 the previous month and the production index climbed to 63.9 from 47.2.
It is likely that the bottom in the economy was either in the second or third quarter. This thread is for evidence that the economy is recovering.
Chicago PMI came in at 54.2, a 13-month high. A reading above 50 implies expansion. New orders came in at 61.4, a 29-month high.
Business activity in the U.S. unexpectedly expanded in October, a sign the economic recovery that began in the third quarter will persist in coming months.
The Institute for Supply Management-Chicago Inc. said today its business barometer increased to 54.2, the highest level in 13 months and exceeding the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, from 46.1 the prior month. Readings below 50 signal a contraction.
Companies are gearing up to meet demand after the economy grew in the July to September period after four consecutive quarters of contraction. A slower pace of inventory reduction and rising sales abroad due to more than $2 trillion in global government stimulus also signal more production.
The manufacturing rebound is a lot broader than just cash for clunkers, said Dean Maki, chief U.S. economist at Barclays Capital Inc. in New York, referring to the governments auto-incentive plan that helped boost sales and production. This improvement will show through in the national numbers as well. ...
The Chicago purchasers new orders gauge jumped to 61.4, the highest level since June 2007, from 46.3 the previous month and the production index climbed to 63.9 from 47.2.
Chicago Purchasersâ Index Climbs to 13-Month High (Update3) - Bloomberg.com
The Service Sector did not expand, Toro. It continued to collapse. Don't pay attention to the false numbers. I have been pointing out that the system is totally corrupt. The only numbers that reflect employment in this country that can be believed are the Unemployment Insurance claims. Those are tabulated on the state level and are accurate on the number of people who have lost their jobs in the previous week who feel that they qualify for Unemployment Insurance because they were employed for the requisite time period (Six months to one year in the various states.)Service sector expanded in the third quarter, Neubarth.
Unemployment is a lagging indicator, not a leading indicator. Never has been, never will be.
Services increased 1.2 percent, compared with an increase of 0.2 percent.
Dow 10000 might grab the headlines. But Crossover 500 might be a more telling indicator.
The widely watched Markit iTraxx Crossover index, which tracks the credit risk of 50 mostly junk-rated European companies, became the barometer of fear in the European credit markets as the crisis deepened. It peaked at more than 1,150 basis points (11.50 percentage points) in March.
But Thursday, the index traded under 500 basis points for the first time since June 2008, underlining the return of confidence. At 1,000 basis points, the index was suggesting a one-year default rate of 16%; at 500 basis points, that has fallen to around 9%. Even that may be overstating the risk.
The number of companies defaulting slowed to 50 in the third quarter, down from 89 in the first quarter and 83 in the second, Moody's says. That took the global default rate in September to 12%, but the ratings firm forecasts it will fall to 4.5% in one year's time even if there is only a modest global economic recovery and a continuing rise in U.S. unemployment.
Key to this improvement has been the blossoming ability of the bond market to provide refinancing, with lower-rated companies able to raise cash and rebalance their maturity profiles. Global high-yield issuance year to date stands at $144 billion, according to Dealogic, almost double 2008's full-year total of $78.7 billion.
As long as this continues, expectations of defaults should continue to decline -- giving more companies access to finance. A new shock could easily cause disruption, but for the moment a virtuous circle seems to be at work. The Crossover, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average, could rally further from here.
It is also important to know that not only the service sector, but nondurable goods, software and exports all rose in the third quarter. None of these have to do with the cash for clunkers programs or the new homebuyers tax credit.
They are not invalid, Neubarth. I've spoken to some of the people who have worked on collecting the data. They are professional statisticians.
They are not invalid, Neubarth. I've spoken to some of the people who have worked on collecting the data. They are professional statisticians.
No, see Neubarth has theories based on data. If the data contradict his theories then the data must be wrong, not his theories.
They are not invalid, Neubarth. I've spoken to some of the people who have worked on collecting the data. They are professional statisticians.
They are not invalid, Neubarth. I've spoken to some of the people who have worked on collecting the data. They are professional statisticians.
Nothing but God Damned lies. Those people need to be put to death. Liars all.
They are not invalid, Neubarth. I've spoken to some of the people who have worked on collecting the data. They are professional statisticians.
No, see Neubarth has theories based on data. If the data contradict his theories then the data must be wrong, not his theories.
Damn, and I though you were the learned man of the sacred texts.
OK, forgetting that, let it be said that I only deal with reality that I can see. I see 34 million Americans without full time employment and I reject anything that denies that because it has to be lies and more lies.
Remember, according to the Jewish God, Reality is what you can see. In all other things, believe in God.
I agree with her. Brace for impact, crash ahead.The new economic statistics put growth at a healthy 3.5% for the third quarter. We should be dancing in the streets. No one is, because no one has any faith in these numbers. Waves of money are sloshing through the system, creating a false rising tide that lifts all boats for the moment. The tide will recede. The boats aren't rising, they're bobbing, and will settle. No one believes the bad time is over. No one thinks we're entering a new age of abundance. No one thinks it will ever be the same as before 2008. Economists, statisticians, forecasters and market specialists will argue about what the new numbers mean, but no one believes them, either. Among the things swept away in 2008 was public confidence in the experts. The experts missed the crash. They'll miss the meaning of this moment, too.
They are not invalid, Neubarth. I've spoken to some of the people who have worked on collecting the data. They are professional statisticians.
Nothing but God Damned lies. Those people need to be put to death. Liars all.
No. They are trained statisticians, many who are Ph.D.s and highly intelligent who have spent their entire lives crunching numbers.
