The Recovery Thread

The economy is still losing hundreds of thousands of jobs every month. When that stops, you'll see the bottom. We aren't there yet....

Actually, over TWO MILLION people a month are filing for Unemployment Insurance. Depending upon the state, these are people who have been at work for six months or a year or longer and have lost those jobs due to no fault of their own.

The OBAMA lies about only hundreds of thousands lost per month is insane and totally unbelievable.

As I have said for years now, the only sure indication of employment in America is to count the state reported UI claims. Anything else is total fiction from government.
 
Check US Dollar and Gold to see how great this recovery is
There is no direct correlation between the two.

Actually, there has been as of late.

I checked this the other day.

Over the past three years, 57% of the days the dollar has fallen, gold has risen. Since June, that number has risen to 75%.

As an owner of gold, I want to see that number lower, not higher, because I want gold to rise against all currencies, not just dollars. But unfortunately, for the most part, gold has been trading inversely with the dollar.
 
The economy is still losing hundreds of thousands of jobs every month. When that stops, you'll see the bottom. We aren't there yet....

Economies always bottom before jobs do.

True. But if we were I would expect to see increases in overtime and temp workers, and I haven't seen it so far.
What will probably derail the economy is the Fed tightening. Now, they have a terrible record of letting loose money prevail. I hope this time it's different but I cant see them tightening before the 2010 election. I would about bet money Obama is putting pressure on Bernanke in this regard. And Bernanke doesnt need much prodding.
That said, all the talk about manipulating the numbers is bull. Obama cannot manipulate every number in America and corporate CEOs know what their companies are doing. I would expect exports to be booming about now as American goods are really cheap.
 
Manufacturing production is beginning to expand around the world.

1017-biz-webCHARTS.gif


The New York Times > Business > Image > An Uneven Worldwide Recovery
 
Nonsense for the US data.

Economy weakens in Chicago area in September
Chicago PMI index falls to 46.1%, a sign of contraction


By Rex Nutting, MarketWatch

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The economy worsened in the Chicago area in September, according to a survey of purchasing managers at major companies.

The Chicago purchasing managers index fell to 46.1% in September from 50.0% in August, the Chicago-NAPM said Wednesday. New orders fell.

US ECON: Philly Fed October Manufacturing Index 11.5
10.15.09, 11:18 AM EDT


Washington, Oct 15 2009 October 15 - The Philadelphia Fed says its October survey of manufacturing conditions in the mid-Atlantic region fell to 11.5 from 14.1. Consensus was for a 12.0 reading.



INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION down approx. 12% in past year.

SEP 2009 ?
AUG 2009 +0.8%
JUL 2009 +1.0%
JUN 2009 -0.4%
MAY 2009 -1.2%
APR 2009 -0.7%
MAR 2009 -1.7%
FEB 2009 -1.5%
JAN 2009 -1.9%
DEC 2008 -2.4%
NOV2008 -1.3
OCT 2008 +1.5%
SEP 2008 -2.8%
AUG 2008 -1.1%

RETAIL SALES
SEP 2009 - 1.5 %
AUG 2009 +2.2%
JUL 2009 -0.1
JUN 2009 +0.8 %
MAY 2009 +0.5%
APR 2009 –0.4%
MAR 2009 –1.3%
FEB 2009 –0.1%
JAN 2009 + 1.0%
DEC 2008 –2.7%
NOV 2008 –2.1%
OCT 2008 –2.9%
SEP 2008 –1.3%
AUG 2008 –0.4%

DURABLE ORDERS
AUG 2009 -2.4%


There was no improvement this year. The economy is still collapsing.
 
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Nonsense for the US data.

Economy weakens in Chicago area in September
Chicago PMI index falls to 46.1%, a sign of contraction


By Rex Nutting, MarketWatch

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The economy worsened in the Chicago area in September, according to a survey of purchasing managers at major companies.

The Chicago purchasing managers index fell to 46.1% in September from 50.0% in August, the Chicago-NAPM said Wednesday. New orders fell,

How do figures from Chicago contradict a national trend?
 
Nonsense for the US data.

Economy weakens in Chicago area in September
Chicago PMI index falls to 46.1%, a sign of contraction


By Rex Nutting, MarketWatch

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The economy worsened in the Chicago area in September, according to a survey of purchasing managers at major companies.

The Chicago purchasing managers index fell to 46.1% in September from 50.0% in August, the Chicago-NAPM said Wednesday. New orders fell,

How do figures from Chicago contradict a national trend?

ShitMouthMan, the national trend is Collapse.
 
Nonsense for the US data.

Economy weakens in Chicago area in September
Chicago PMI index falls to 46.1%, a sign of contraction


By Rex Nutting, MarketWatch

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The economy worsened in the Chicago area in September, according to a survey of purchasing managers at major companies.

The Chicago purchasing managers index fell to 46.1% in September from 50.0% in August, the Chicago-NAPM said Wednesday. New orders fell,

How do figures from Chicago contradict a national trend?

ShitMouthMan, the national trend is Collapse.

Because you say so?
 
Check US Dollar and Gold to see how great this recovery is
There is no direct correlation between the two.

Actually, there has been as of late.

I checked this the other day.

Over the past three years, 57% of the days the dollar has fallen, gold has risen. Since June, that number has risen to 75%.

As an owner of gold, I want to see that number lower, not higher, because I want gold to rise against all currencies, not just dollars. But unfortunately, for the most part, gold has been trading inversely with the dollar.

Ah yes DATA. Tell me Toro, on the days the Dollar has fallen, what did it fall against?

If it was the Euro, then Volkswagen earns less on their sales in the US. Nokia would lose phone sales in the US, and unemployment in Europe will increase. Germany would lose sales in the US. They can not have that with any consistency, so the Krauts buy the dollar to help their economy.

If it was the Yen.................................Nah, that would never happen.

If it was Gold because of speculation, you can always be certain that when the speculative bubble bursts as it always has, Gold will go back down again. The only thing that goes up until then is the price of new jewelry. I don't buy that shit, so it has no impact on me.
 
ShitMouthMan, the national trend is Collapse.

Because you say so?

No, ShitMouthMan, because the IP and DG and RS numbers say so. Even though the Fed Gov fuggs with those numbers, they are still indicative of the horrible condition of the economy.

If the gov't is fudging the numbers don't you think they would fudge them look, well, positive??
And I dont know wha tthe IP DG and RS numbers are.
 
Because you say so?

No, ShitMouthMan, because the IP and DG and RS numbers say so. Even though the Fed Gov fuggs with those numbers, they are still indicative of the horrible condition of the economy.

If the gov't is fudging the numbers don't you think they would fudge them look, well, positive??
And I dont know wha tthe IP DG and RS numbers are.
IP = Industrial Production
DG = Durable Goods
RS = Retail Sales.

You can not have recovery in the economy until the Big Three items of economic measurement show that recovery. I have posted the IP, DG and RS numbers over and over and over again for you guys to note.
 
I would think orders would be the first indicator.
The volume of industrial orders in the U.S. in July 2009 increased by 1,3% compared to the previous month
The volume of industrial orders in the U.S. in July 2009 increased by 1,3% compared to the previous month, amounting to $ 355.46 billion against 350.91 billion dollars in June 2009. Such data was extended today the Ministry of Commerce.

The information has not justified expectations of the analysts, that predicting growth of this indicator on 2,3 %.
According to the revised data in June this figure has increased by 0,9% (instead of 0.4%, as previously reported).

In the index, the volume of industrial orders, orders for the goods short-term (a foodstuff, clothes, the light industry goods) and long (cars, furniture, etc.) use.

It's nothing wonderful, but they show increases. And that is consistent with what ceo's are reporting in some industries.
It certainly is not consistent with the economy falling off the abyss.
 
On conference calls over the past few days, Apple and Caterpillar said they are seeing a pick-up in business.

Anecdotally, I am seeing more people in restaurants than I did six months ago, and talking to local businessmen, they are seeing a stabilization and a slight pick-up in business.
 
On conference calls over the past few days, Apple and Caterpillar said they are seeing a pick-up in business.

Anecdotally, I am seeing more people in restaurants than I did six months ago, and talking to local businessmen, they are seeing a stabilization and a slight pick-up in business.

All of our local union trades are expecting to start recalling people starting in December. We've got several Casino projects that have just been languishing in the credit mire for over a year now.

It's been bad, but this is a good sign.

Time to start identifying that next bubble(s) and our exit points :lol:
 
Well if gold is the worst of the bubbles, I'm not that worried. Gold isn't something that average people feel ENTITLED to like houses were, nor do they really understand why and when it's most important.

It made sense to mortgage hundreds of thousands on a house you could also live in as well, but when gold is this expensive, only those with the wealth are going to run the price up.

I can't see the burst being very significant, probably not even as bad as the tech burst. What do you think?
 

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